Here’s Why Experts Say China’s New Fentanyl Rules Won’t Make Much of a Difference: NPR

U.S. President Joe Biden (R) and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk together after a meeting in California last November. White House officials say the meeting led to better cooperation on fentanyl interdiction, but some experts are skeptical.

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Officials in China say new rules will go into effect on Sept. 1 that will tighten controls on so-called “precursor” chemicals used to make street fentanyl. The powerful opioid kills tens of thousands of people in the U.S. each year.

Chemical plants in China have become major suppliers to Mexican drug cartels and other criminal gangs that produce synthetic drugs including fentanyl and methamphetamine, experts say.

The Biden administration described the new Chinese rules — which increase government oversight of seven chemicals, including three compounds used to make illegal fentanyl — as a “valuable step forward” in the fight to reduce overdose deaths in the U.S.

“We’re going to look at making further progress in the fight against drugs and the flow of illicit synthetic drugs into the United States,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at a news conference in Beijing on Thursday.

In a statement earlier this month, the White House described the latest Chinese regulations as part of a trend toward enhanced cooperation on narcotics that began last November, when President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“This is the third significant (regulatory) action by the People’s Republic of China since President Biden met with President Xi and resumed bilateral counternarcotics cooperation,” said Sean Savett, spokesman for the National Security Council.

Before the resumption of drug control talks in 2023, China suspended all drug cooperation with the US due to diplomatic tensions over Taiwan and human rights issues.

White House drug chief Dr. Rahul Gupta also praised China’s move to crack down on drug trafficking. In an August 6 statement, he noted that “dozens of deadly substances are now regulated by the People’s Republic of China.”

Drug policy experts interviewed by NPR expressed skepticism about China’s new fentanyl rules, questioning whether they will be based on meaningful enforcement.

Stricter regulations on paper. What about enforcement?

John Coyne, an expert on criminal drug markets at the Australia Strategic Policy Institute, published an essay last week criticizing China’s new fentanyl precursor regulations, describing them as “little more than a PR stunt.”

According to Coyne, a wide range of chemicals that can be used in the production of illegal drugs remain unregulated in China. He also said there is evidence that Chinese officials are complicit in the fentanyl trade.

“There are ties between some of these (chemical) companies and Chinese government officials, and they’re even advertising those ties online,” Coyne told NPR. He’s not the only one expressing doubts.

In April, investigators from a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee published evidence that Chinese government agencies were effectively subsidizing the export of fentanyl precursors. Chinese officials deny the allegations.

A spokesperson for the Republican majority staff that conducted the fentanyl investigation told NPR this week that it is concerning that Chinese subsidies for chemical companies that export fentanyl-related chemicals are still in place.

They also said their investigators found no new evidence that China plans to prosecute companies that feed the criminal fentanyl supply chain. Chinese officials did not respond to an email seeking comment.

A senior Biden administration official told NPR that the new chemical regulations on fentanyl are important because they “give us a reason to push them to do more” because negotiations with China are so sensitive.

“We clearly think the PRC can do much more,” the official said. “No single step will solve this problem, it’s a huge problem.”

A photo of Makayla Cox, who died of a fentanyl overdose at age 16, is displayed among other portraits on “The Faces of Fentanyl” wall, which displays photos of Americans who have died from fentanyl overdoses. The wall was installed at the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) headquarters in Arlington, Virginia, on July 13, 2022. – The opioid crisis in America has reached catastrophic proportions, with more than 80,000 people expected to die from opioid overdoses in 2023.

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Put the toothpaste back in the tube

Even if Chinese authorities take measures to limit fentanyl production, many experts say it will be impossible to stem the flow of the chemical precursor.

“It’s worth trying, but I think the most likely outcome is that there is no lasting disruption to the ability to produce fentanyl,” said Jonathan Caulkins, an expert on the fentanyl crisis at Carnegie Mellon University.

According to Caulkins, fentanyl precursor chemicals are relatively easy to produce and widely available. He said that checking every compound that can produce a version of fentanyl is like “putting toothpaste back in the tube.”

Greg Midgette, an expert on criminal drug markets at the University of Maryland, agreed. He said identifying and curbing the sources of fentanyl chemicals would be a daunting challenge, even for China’s powerful bureaucracy.

“Those things are very hard to track,” he said. “We would probably see adaptation in China or some other state where precursors are not as well regulated.”

Still, experts told NPR it makes sense for the U.S. to continue to apply pressure on criminal drug cartels, their supply chains and countries like China and Mexico where they operate. Such measures can help reduce corruption and criminal activity and bring a measure of justice, they said.

Meanwhile, government officials said they were trying to persuade China to resume cooperation on narcotics. and convincing Beijing to tighten regulations are part of a broader fentanyl campaign.

Other parts of that effort include targeting and arresting Mexican drug cartel leaders. Some public health experts also believe that expanding health and addiction programs have finally slowed the number of fentanyl deaths.