The growing desperation in northwestern Nigeria amid failed security strategies

…Why New Leadership Alone Won’t Stop the Bloodshed

The North-West region of Nigeria is experiencing a disturbing increase in violence, raising serious concerns about the effectiveness of the country’s security measures and the growing influence of non-state actors. Recent events have drawn attention to the escalating violence and apparent shortcomings in addressing the root causes of insecurity in the region.

The region, which comprises seven states – Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara – covers approximately 216,065 square kilometres, almost equal to the size of the United Kingdom. The region is predominantly home to the Hausa and Fulani ethnic groups and is known for its rich cultural heritage and agricultural activities.

Despite its vast resources, including gold, the region remains impoverished. Statistics from 2019 indicate high poverty rates, with rates of 87.7%, 87% and 74% in Sokoto, Jigawa and Zamfara respectively. About 80% of the population depends on agriculture, livestock or small-scale entrepreneurship.

The Northwest faces significant economic challenges, with high poverty rates and limited access to essential services. The literacy rate is only 29.7%, largely due to insufficient investment in formal education. Many children are enrolled in under-resourced Quranic schools, resulting in a generation of uneducated youth. Poor governance and mismanagement of public funds exacerbate these problems, leading to a persistent lack of health care and clean water.

Geographically, the vast savannahs and forests of the northwest pose security and governance challenges. Forests, once controlled by forestry authorities, have become havens for criminals such as cattle rustlers and kidnappers. The Kamuku Forest in Kaduna State, for example, is now considered as dangerous as Boko Haram strongholds in Borno State. The region’s long border with the Republic of Niger further complicates security efforts due to weak border control and corruption among officials.

In recent years, violence has increased in the northwest, driven by conflicts between herders and farmers, criminal gangs and jihadist groups. Since 2011, violent clashes have escalated, resulting in an estimated 8,000 deaths. The conflicts, characterized by attacks on communities, livestock theft and sexual violence, reflect a broader crisis of sectarian violence and inadequate government responses. Ongoing instability continues to threaten the region’s security and development.

An increase in uncertainty

The North-West has witnessed a sustained escalation in violence since President Bola Tinubu appointed new service chiefs on June 19, 2023. The overhaul, which saw the removal of key figures such as Alkali Usman, the former Inspector General of Police, and the replacement of them with new leaders, including Major General CG Musa as Chief of Defence Staff, was intended to combat persistent insecurity in the region. However, more than 1,500 deaths have been reported in the first half of 2023 alone, with the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) citing about 60,000 deaths in northern Nigeria in the past decade as a result of insecurity.

However, the Federal Government has taken a strategic step in a bid to address the rising violence in northwestern Nigeria. On August 31, 2024, the Minister of Defence, Bello Matawalle, announced a decisive move to deploy the Chief of Defence Staff and other top military personnel to Sokoto State.

This deployment is aimed at intensifying efforts against banditry, kidnapping and terrorism in the region. The Chief of Defence Staff, together with other service chiefs, will directly supervise operations on the ground, with a focus on tracking down notorious bandit leader Bello Turji and his gang. The move underscores the government’s commitment to restoring peace and security in the North West.

According to a statement from the Ministry of Defence, the relocation is part of a broader strategy to address the persistent threat of bandits and terrorists. The deployment also underscores the government’s determination to address the crisis head-on, following reports of bandits challenging the military on social media. The federal government has pledged to deploy all necessary resources to weaken the criminal elements and restore stability to the affected communities.

Read also: Insecurity jeopardizes food security despite government efforts

The growing influence of non-state actors

Non-state actors, including armed gangs and insurgents, have gained significant support in the Northwest. Emboldened by the power vacuum created by weakened state institutions, these groups now operate with alarming audacity.

They actively use social media platforms like TikTok to showcase their criminal activities, flaunt weapons and boast about their exploits. The rise of these actors is bolstered by their ability to connect with large audiences online, spread their influence and further destabilize the region.

The Limitations of Leadership Change

The appointment of new security chiefs, including Maj. Gen. T.A. Lagbaja as Chief of Army Staff and Nuhu Ribadu as National Security Adviser, was intended to provide a fresh approach to Nigeria’s security challenges. However, the results have been mixed. Despite significant efforts, including numerous military operations, the region remains deeply troubled. The death toll from these conflicts continues to rise, highlighting the limitations of simply rotating leadership without addressing underlying problems.

Root Causes of Uncertainty

Insecurity in northwestern Nigeria is caused by several factors. The economic collapse of the region, marked by the closure of countless factories and the decimation of the agricultural and livestock industries, has exacerbated the crisis. Competition for scarce resources between Fulani herders and Hausa farmers has fueled the violence, which has been further intensified by climate change and rapid population growth. In addition, the proliferation of weapons and the presence of jihadist groups have added layers of complexity to the conflict.

The role of organized crime

Organized crime has increasingly become a major factor in the instability of the Northwest. Armed groups and criminal gangs, initially focused on cattle theft and kidnapping for ransom, have evolved into more sophisticated entities. The spread of these groups into unmanaged forests and their involvement in illegal gold mining have exacerbated the violence. Security experts warn that the Northwest could serve as a conduit for jihadist groups, linking them to Boko Haram factions in the Northeast.

Economic and humanitarian impact

The humanitarian toll of the ongoing violence is severe. More than 8,000 people have been killed and over 200,000 displaced. The economic impact has been equally devastating, with the region’s agricultural and livestock industries virtually destroyed. The situation has led many to seek refuge in neighbouring Niger, underscoring the far-reaching implications of the crisis.

Challenges and prospects

Attempts to address the crisis, including military operations and peace talks, have brought only temporary relief. The Nigerian government’s approach has been criticized for its ineffectiveness in ending the violence. The need for a comprehensive strategy that addresses both the immediate and long-term causes of the conflict is crucial. This includes facilitating dialogue between conflicting parties, regulating the gold mining sector, and addressing the economic and humanitarian needs of the region.

Also read: 55,910 dead, 21,000 abducted as insecurity worsens in Nigeria – Report

Conclusion: A comprehensive strategy for solving the pastoralist-farmer crisis in northwestern Nigeria

Efforts to address pastoralist-farmer conflict in northwestern Nigeria have made some progress, but have largely been inadequate. Initiatives such as the establishment of rural rangelands in states like Zamfara have aimed to provide pastoralists with dedicated land, but these measures have fallen short. Rangelands are often too small and lack essential infrastructure, markets, and services that pastoralists need to thrive. The National Livestock Transformation Plan, launched by the federal government in 2019, attempts to address these shortcomings by promoting livestock production, improving water sources, and supporting pastoralists to transition to more established livestock practices. However, more comprehensive implementation is needed, including financial support for state-level projects and support from international donors.

To reduce the violence caused by cattle rustling, which has led many herders to arm themselves, the federal government should establish a robust system for tracking lost cattle. This could include measures such as tagging cattle and using solar-powered tracking devices to help recover stolen cattle. Some states have taken steps to achieve this goal, but nationwide implementation is crucial for effectiveness. Furthermore, creating a comprehensive system to regulate cattle markets and slaughterhouses could help curb the rise of armed groups and reduce the incentive for violence among herders.

Long-term peacebuilding and humanitarian support are essential to resolving the crisis. Governments in the Northwest must commit to sustained peace efforts, including community forums and reconciliation initiatives involving both pastoralists and farmers. Addressing the ongoing humanitarian needs of displaced people and ensuring that international aid is directed toward reconstruction efforts are critical. Finally, environmental restoration projects, such as the Great Green Wall Initiative, can provide sustainable livelihoods and reduce resource-based conflict. A broad, coordinated approach that addresses both immediate and underlying issues is necessary to achieve lasting peace in the Northwest.