An analysis of recent political developments in Mexico

By Daniel Alvarez, MBA

The current political climate in Mexico marks a rapid and significant shift away from the reforms that accompanied the AMLO administration, as the country moves closer to practices reminiscent of the PRI era of the 1970s.

In this short analysis I will briefly discuss these developments, highlighting the fundamental changes and their implications.

First of all, it is essential to understand what an autonomous agency is. These agencies were created to ensure a balance of power within government and fulfil regulatory and supervisory roles. They have legal personality, budgetary independence and operational autonomy.

As a result, they are not accountable to other branches of government, such as the presidency, which can be problematic if someone or something seeks total centralized control. Each agency has specific mandates; for example, BANXICO is responsible for currency stability, INAI ensures government transparency, and IFT regulates telecommunications and prevents monopolies.

The current government, which the Unofficial Manual of the Latin American Dictator literally, wants to dismantle at least seven autonomous agencies, arguing that they are ineffective and expensive. The apparent reasoning is that the funds currently allocated to these agencies could be better used for pensions and social policies. Yet, as practice has shown, they are being used by the MORENA party and their partners to build a client base and gain political support.

INAI (The National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information, and Protection of Personal Data) is one of the targeted agencies that will ensure government accountability. Eliminating INAI and other agencies would significantly increase the government’s capacity to act unilaterally, which seems to be the underlying goal. The focus is therefore on removing entities that are obstructing the MORENA agenda. The INE, which is already under their control, will remain untouched. At the same time, Banxico’s role will likely undergo minimal changes, unless they want to add a hyperinflation problem to their list.

In a functioning democracy, the executive, legislative and judicial branches must operate independently to maintain checks and balances. The INE recently approved a qualified majority for MORENA in the Chamber of Deputies, which also has a substantial majority in the Senate.

Although they theoretically fell three legislators short of a qualified majority, they are expected to achieve it. This is due to recent negotiations involving significant financial incentives aimed at opposition senators to join MORENA or support its legislative agenda.

The worst predictions have now come true, with two PRD senators defecting to MORENA, and it is expected that others, possibly from the PRI, will follow, consolidating MORENA’s qualified majority in the Senate. This development implies that proposed reforms can be adopted quickly, as they will have majority support. Furthermore, Noroña has been appointed Senate President after considerable delay, further consolidating MORENA’s control over the legislature.

The big issue: Judicial reform has been discussed extensively. The judiciary is crucial to maintaining checks and balances, and its removal as an independent counterweight to the executive is now underway.

The reform was approved earlier this week, effectively reducing the role of the judiciary as a counterweight to presidential decisions. During AMLO’s term, the judiciary was the main institution resisting his reforms. With the proposed changes, the judiciary will become an extension of the executive, as the executive will control judicial appointments. A step closer to absolute power.

While other countries are making efforts to combat drug trafficking, the current Mexican government has been criticized for its permissive attitude. The “hugs not bullets“The strategy AMLO is employing is seen as a way to protect drug cartels and thereby gain significant electoral support, but at a high price.

As the newly elected president prepares for a hiatus, which is expected to align with AMLO’s agenda, the political focus remains on domestic issues. For Mexican voters, current political developments require active engagement and vigilance to ensure a second Maximum.

The erosion of institutional checks and balances and the consolidation of power within the executive branch pose significant threats to democratic governance and transparency. Voters must be informed and engaged, advocate for the preservation of autonomous institutions, and resist reforms that undermine democratic principles.

The fundamental problem is that the Mexican people seem to be asleep, lethargic and unable to bring about change. Public awareness and citizen participation are crucial to holding the government accountable and ensuring that democratic norms and values ​​are upheld. An engaged electorate can influence policy and reform processes and protect the integrity of Mexico’s political and legal systems in these transformative times. But unfortunately, this does not seem to be the case.

Daniel Alvarez is a professor at MiraCosta College, a seasoned professional and educator with extensive international experience and a passion for community development.