09/17 Links Pt1: Paging Hezbollah…..Lebanese authorities raise death toll in pager blasts to 11, 4,000 injured; Hezbollah has no idea what hit it ~ Elder Of Ziyon

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From Ian:

Lebanon pager blast: Hezbollah has no idea what hit it

Tuesday’s events occurred only hours after the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) revealed that Hezbollah had tried to assassinate a top Israeli ex-defense chief. Shortly before the explosions, there were reports of a special meeting between Mossad director David Barnea and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Given the juxtaposition in the timing and the last few hysterical hours in Israel about a security situation with Lebanon, is it possible that Israel carried out its second attack on Hezbollah in Beirut? And, could this be in direct retaliation for Hezbollah’s failed assassination attempt, or rather, on the heels of nearly a year of the origination firing at Israel?

The last time the Jewish state attacked Beirut was on July 30, when it assassinated Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr in retaliation for the Majdal Shams rocket attack, which killed 12 Druze children.

This nearly exploded into a full-scale war between the sides on August 25. Still, the IDF managed a preemptive strike that substantially reduced Hezbollah’s ability to fire more than a fraction of the rockets that it had intended to direct at Israel, including at northern Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has pledged that any attack on Beirut would be met with a massive counter-strike.

Will he keep his promise, or will Hezbollah back down, given that it started this round with an attempted assassination, and given the IDF’s success against Hezbollah on August 25?

Another question that remains is: What is the endgame for the entity standing behind the explosive devices incident in Beirut? Will this be a knock-out punch on its own, or will this be a bloody hit that will leave Hezbollah still standing, the dilemma of war between Israel and Lebanon still reaming up in the air, though possibly closer than ever?

Seth Frantzman: Hezbollah’s worst nightmare: Chaos in its ranks

In essence, Hezbollah is a more successful military structure, even though it is a terrorist army in Lebanon, than many Arab armies in the region. This is evident from how it has not only been able to confront Israel but also stockpile more rockets, missiles, and drones than many armies in second or third-world countries. Hezbollah has pioneered drone threats against Israel and carried out numerous attacks in this war, for instance.

The chaos that will follow the exploding pagers is already evident in Lebanon. Reports say the Iranian-backed terrorist group is scrambling to tell its members not to use communications devices. Hospitals have numerous injured men. The group will have to scramble to put its organization back together.

Effective groups, whether militaries, terrorist groups, cartels, gangs, or corporations, need to have good communication. A group like Hezbollah needs this to mobilize people and coordinate attacks. It can’t coordinate the launch of large numbers of missiles if it can’t get men to the launchers. Hezbollah requires a way to get in touch with its fighters. It will need to scramble now to replace its pagers or other devices.

It will also now be concerned about the penetration of its operational security. When groups like Hezbollah are in chaos, they are more vulnerable to making mistakes. This reminds us of the story of the penetration of the KKK in the film Mississippi Burning. It took time for the FBI to cause the “rattlesnakes to commit suicide,” but in the end, the KKK was defeated. Similarly, when the US-led coalition defeated Saddam’s army in Iraq in 1991, it set about destroying its command and control nodes. This is how terrorist groups and militaries are defeated.

Hezbollah faces a difficult challenge now. It is in chaos. It may want to lash out and strike back. But it has suffered a major setback. This is also an embarrassing setback. Hezbollah rests on its allure, its sense of being an elite group that is not vulnerable. Now, it feels vulnerable.

Pager explosions hint at shift in strategy against Hezbollah

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said months ago that Israel has new capabilities that will surprise Hezbollah and Israel’s enemies. This comment was lost among endless other “we-will-send-Lebanon-back-to-the-stone-age” threats he has issued since Hezbollah began attacking Israel on October 8.

Yet this attack, if carried out by Israel, shows that Gallant’s words about surprises were not empty.

The level of pre-planning involved is also significant. Given that this war of attrition has dragged on for months and the government has now declared its readiness to go to war to change the situation in the North, Israel has lost the element of surprise in any conventional attack on Hezbollah.

In other words, if the IAF were to strike Beirut tomorrow or tanks rolled into southern Lebanon, it would neither be surprising nor preemptive. The enemy is expecting something.

Tuesday’s pager explosions, however, show that there are other, non-conventional ways to surprise the enemy and gain a tactical advantage. And this leads to a third lesson: the next war is never fought like the previous one.

Following the security cabinet’s declaration Tuesday night, the mind immediately went to tanks moving into Lebanon like they did during the First Lebanon War in 1982, or planes bombing Hezbollah’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut as they did in the Second Lebanon War in 2006. And all that still might materialize if a full-blown Third Lebanon War now erupts. But those are both elements of yesterday’s war.

Monday’s action shows that the next war with Hezbollah will be fought differently and in an innovative and creative way: two traits with which Israel has been amply blessed.

Lebanese authorities raise death toll in pager blasts to 11, say 4,000 injured

Lebanon’s health ministry updates the death toll in the pager explosions to 11.

Another 4,000 are wounded, including 400 in critical condition, according to ministry numbers cited by Arabic-language media.

Lebanon: Some 2,700 Hezbollah terrorists hurt, 8 killed by exploding pagers

More than 2,700 Hezbollah terrorists were wounded and at least eight were killed across Lebanon on Tuesday when their communication devices exploded, Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad confirmed.

Approximately 200 Hezbollah terrorists were in critical condition in 100 different hospitals, Beirut’s health minister announced about three hours after the explosions were first reported at 3.30 p.m. local time.

A Reuters journalist saw 10 terrorists bleeding from injuries in Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiya, which is the main stronghold of Hezbollah. A security source told Qatar’s Al Jazeera that explosions occurred across Lebanon—not only in Beirut but also in the Beqaa Valley and the south.

Senior Hezbollah officials were said to have been wounded in the blasts. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was also wounded in one of the explosions, Tehran’s semi-official Mehr outlet reported.

‘Causes of which are still unknown’

Unconfirmed reports in Arab media claimed explosions also occurred in Damascus, wounding at least dozens of Hezbollah terror operatives.

In its first official statement on the incident, Hezbollah announced that the pager explosions, “the causes of which are still unknown,” killed at least three of its members, while wounding a large number of others.

Shortly thereafter, the terrorist organization issued a statement that it held the Jewish state “fully responsible for this criminal aggression.”

Lebanese media affiliated with Hezbollah had attributed the incident to the Israel Defense Forces, claiming the mysterious blasts were caused by a hack of the terrorist group’s internal communications networks.

The Wall Street Journal said the pagers were part of a new shipment that the terror group received in recent days. A Hezbollah official suggested that “malware” may have caused the pagers to heat up and explode.

Another Hezbollah terrorist official in Lebanon cited by Reuters called the alleged computer hack by Israel the “biggest security breach so far.”

At least 14 terrorists hospitalized in Syria after Hezbollah pagers explode

At least a dozen Hezbollah operatives were wounded in the Damascus area on Tuesday afternoon when their pagers exploded due to an alleged Israeli hack that also injured more than 2,700 terrorists in Lebanon, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights announced.

According to the group, which is affiliated with the opposition and based in the United Kingdom, at least 14 Hezbollah members “whose nationalities were not disclosed” were wounded in the alleged attack.

In Damascus, four terrorists were said to have been hurt when a communications device exploded in a car on a road near the Kafr Sousa district. In Sayyidah Zaynab, about six miles south of the Syrian capital, seven people were wounded. Another three terrorists sustained wounds in a blast in the Qalamoun Mountains near the Lebanese border.

They were evacuated to several hospitals around Damascus, activists affiliated with the Syrian war monitor reported.

A source with links to Hezbollah confirmed to AFP that some terrorists were wounded in explosions in Syria, without disclosing how many.

Iran-backed Hezbollah blamed Israel for the pager blasts that wounded at least 2,700 and killed eight of its operatives in Lebanon, saying the Jewish state will get “its fair punishment” in response.

The statement warned that “this treacherous and criminal enemy will certainly receive its just punishment for this sinful aggression from where it expects it or does not expect it,” according to a translation by Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen, which is affiliated with the terror group.

Approximately 200 terrorists were in critical condition in 100 Lebanese hospitals, Beirut’s health minister, Firass Abiad, announced some three hours after the blasts were first reported at 3.30 p.m. local time.

Reports: Mossad rigged pager batteries with explosives, devices were imported 5 months ago

Sky News Arabia quotes sources saying that today’s large-scale pager attack in Lebanon was possible because the Mossad spy agency got hold of Hezbollah’s communication devices before they were handed over to the terror group.

The Israeli spy agency placed a quantity of PETN, a highly explosive material, on the batteries of the devices, and detonated them by raising the temperature of the batteries from afar, the source says.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that some Hezbollah members felt their pagers heating up and disposed of them before the series of explosions that killed at least nine and injured about 2,800 people.

Al Jazeera quotes a Lebanese security source saying that the weight of the explosive placed in each device was below 20 grams, and that the pagers that were blown up were imported five months ago. An investigation is being conducted into how the explosive charge was activated, the source adds.

‘Injury to Their Crotch Areas’: Hezbollah Terrorists’ Pagers Explode, Wounding Thousands, Hezbollah Blames Israel

The pagers of hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists exploded simultaneously across Lebanon on Tuesday morning, sending thousands to hospitals for “injuries to their waist and crotch areas,” Axios reported.

The coordinated explosion was the terrorist group’s “biggest intelligence breach yet,” Hezbollah security sources said. Though Israel has not commented on the incident it is widely assumed to have engineered the daring military and intelligence operation.

The cause of the explosion is still unknown. A Hezbollah official suspected that intentional software meddling caused the pagers to explode since hundreds of the terror operatives carried the communicative devices, the Wall Street Journal reported. The defective pagers were part of a shipment Hezbollah received recently.

The timing of the incident is telling. It occurred just a day after White House senior adviser Amos Hochstein arrived in Israel to meet with senior officials, including Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and urge them against starting a war with Hezbollah. In the wake of Oct. 7, Israel was forced to evacuate hundreds of thousands of its citizens from the North due to Hezbollah rocket attacks, and Israeli officials view that situation as unsustainable.

Videos captured and posted to social media show the pagers exploding in real time.

The attack killed at least 8 people and injured over 2,000, according to i24 News, including Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon. Among the terrorists killed was the son of a Lebanese parliament member, Reuters reported.

US says it wasn’t told in advance about pager attack on Hezbollah, is gathering info

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller largely avoids commenting on today’s detonation of pagers belonging to Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon, stressing that Washington was not involved and not tipped off in advance about the operation — which the terror group is blaming on Israel — and is still gathering information on what unfolded.

“The US was not involved in it. The US was not aware of this incident in advance, and at this point, we’re gathering information,” Miller says during a press briefing.

“We’re collecting information in the same way that journalists are across the world to gather the facts about what might have happened,” he adds.

Miller reiterates the longstanding US stance in favor of a diplomatic resolution to the Israel-Hezbollah tensions, while again urging Iran “not to take advantage of any incident to add further instability.”

The Israel Guys: ISRAEL Just Injured 3,000 HEZBOLLAH Operatives by Exploding their Pagers? This Might Mean War!

Israel has had a crazy weekend with rocket strikes from Hezbollah, drone attacks, an attempted assassination of an Israeli official, and now Israel just might have carried out their most effective strike against Hezbollah this year. Details are still breaking, but thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah operatives just exploded across the Middle East inuring and neutralizing their users.

Iranian ambassador Mojtaba Amani injured in Hezbollah explosion

Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was injured on Tuesday by the explosion of a pager, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported on Tuesday.

It was unclear whether the ambassador was in the vicinity of someone carrying one of the tampered pagers or whether Amani was carrying one himself.

It was later reported by Al Jazeera, citing Arab media sources, that Amani’s injuries were “superficial.”

News of the envoy’s injury comes amid panic across the streets of Lebanon as hundreds of members of the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah were seriously wounded in similar incidents.

A Reuters journalist saw hundreds of Hezbollah members bleeding from wounds in the southern suburb of Beirut known as Dahiyeh.

Superficial injuries
“Amani has a superficial injury and is currently under observation in a hospital,” Fars news agency quoted a source as saying.

ISA prevents Hezbollah hit against former security official

The Israel Security Agency said on Tuesday that it had thwarted an attempt by Hezbollah to assassinate a former senior security official.

According to the ISA, the planned attack had involved an explosive device and was intended to be carried out in the coming days.

The agency described the device as a “type of Claymore anti-personnel mine known to be used by Hezbollah.”

It was further described in the statement as “a remote activation mechanism, based on a camera and a cell phone, (that) was attached to the charge, in order for it to be activated from Lebanon by Hezbollah.”

The attack was prevented “in the final stages of implementation,” according to the agency. The targeted official has been updated by security forces, it said, adding that additional details could not be provided “at this stage.”

Additionally, the agency said that the network associated with Iran’s Lebanese terror proxy was responsible for an attempted bombing in Tel Aviv’s Yarkon Park a year ago.

“This device is similar in its characteristics to the Claymore device used by Hezbollah on Sept. 15, 2023 in Yarkon Park, which was intended to hit an Israeli official,” the statement said.

The explosive device, planted next to a tree in the bustling park in the north of the coastal metropolis, caused no injuries.

Head of Islamic Jihad’s Rafah rocket unit killed in Israeli strike

An Israeli aerial strike on Monday killed the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s rocket and missile unit in the Rafah area of southern Gaza.

Ahmed Aish Salame al-Hashash was embedded and operating inside the humanitarian zone in Khan Yunis when he was eliminated in the precision attack, according to the Israel Defense Forces.

“Al-Hashash was responsible for the Islamic Jihad’s rocket attacks in the Rafah Brigade and was an important source of knowledge (…) within the Islamic Jihad terror organization in Gaza,” the IDF said.

“During the war, al-Hashash was responsible for firing rockets from inside the Humanitarian Zone toward Israeli civilians.”

The military emphasized that before conducting the strike, many steps were taken to minimize the threat to noncombatants, including the choice of munitions, aerial surveillance and the collection of additional intelligence.

“The terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip continue to systematically abuse civilian and humanitarian infrastructure to carry out terrorist activities and attacks on Israeli civilians,” the IDF statement concluded.

“The IDF will continue to operate against the terrorist organizations in defense of the State of Israel.”

Poll finds shrinking support in Gaza for Hamas decision to launch October 7 attack

A Palestinian polling center published data Tuesday showing most Gazans believe Hamas’s decision to launch the October 7 massacre on Israel was incorrect, months after Israel accused the pollster of using falsified figures claiming high levels of support for the terror group.

The poll, conducted in early September by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), found that 57 percent of people surveyed in the Gaza Strip said the decision to launch the offensive was incorrect, while 39% said it was correct.

It marked the first time since October 7 that a PCPSR poll found a majority of Gazan respondents judging the decision as incorrect, coming after nearly a year of war that has devastated the Strip. PSR’s previous poll, conducted in June, showed that 57% of respondents in Gaza thought the decision to be correct.

In the West Bank, support for the assault also fell, though 64% of respondents there still agreed with Hamas’s decision, the poll found.

Taken together, 54% of respondents in Gaza and the West Bank thought the decision was correct.

PCPSR said it surveyed 1,200 people face-to-face for the poll, 790 of them in the West Bank and 410 in Gaza, with a 3.5% margin of error.

In August, the Israeli military accused Hamas of mounting an effort to falsify the results of PCPSR polls to show spurious support for Hamas and October 7, though the military said there was no evidence the center had cooperated with Hamas.

PCPSR said Tuesday an internal investigation did not flag any inconsistencies that would arise when data is arbitrarily altered, and that a review of quality control measures “convinced us that no data manipulation took place.”

It noted that support for October 7 did not necessarily mean support for Hamas or killings or atrocities against civilians. The group’s polls have shown the vast majority of Gazans do not think Hamas attacked civilians or committed other atrocities in the assault, despite a preponderance of videos and other evidence.

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