Trump Takes Remarkable Lead Over Biden in State

An exclusive new Free Press poll of potential Michigan voters shows former President Donald Trump with a striking 7 percentage point lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in the state, a finding that will further worry Democrats who are already pushing for Biden to abandon his reelection campaign.

“It’s just going to increase the pressure on Biden to step aside and let someone else take his place,” said Bernie Porn, the pollster for EPIC-MRA in Lansing, who conducted the survey of 600 voters for the Free Press and its media partners. “The Democrats are in a tough spot.”

The poll showed Trump, who held a rally in Grand Rapids on Saturday night, leading Biden 49%-42% in a head-to-head matchup, with 9% undecided, who said they would not vote for either candidate or declined to answer. In a five-way race, Trump led 43% to 36% for Biden, 8% for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 2% each for Green Party candidates Jill Stein and independent Cornel West. Again, 9% said they either would not vote for the president, would choose someone else or were undecided.

Trump led in every region of the state, including metro Detroit — defined as Macomb, Oakland and Wayne County and considered the most predominantly Democratic region in Michigan — where he held a small but notable 46%-44% lead in the head-to-head matchup with Biden and a 43%-38% margin in the five-way race.

Trump’s lead in metro Detroit is a key indicator of which way the political winds have shifted for Biden, who defeated Trump 56%-40% in the region four years ago.

The poll, which follows a disastrous debate by Biden in late June, when he struggled to formulate coherent responses, and the attempted assassination of Trump in Pennsylvania on Saturday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. EPIC-MRA began polling the same day Trump was injured in that assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in which one spectator was killed and two others seriously wounded. The gunman was shot dead by the Secret Service. The poll ended on Wednesday, the third day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Trump accepted his party’s nomination for the third time.

The results show that Trump has more than doubled his lead in Michigan, a crucial swing state, since the last EPIC-MRA poll, conducted just before the June 27 presidential debate in Atlanta. In that poll, Trump led by 3 points in the head-to-head.

More: From upheaval to unity: Michigan Republicans unite to support Trump nationally

More: ‘Safest place in Michigan’: Police chief, attendees feel safe at first Trump rally after assassination attempt

Porn, who has polled in Michigan for decades, said he couldn’t recall a single poll showing a Republican presidential candidate with such a strong showing in the state since then-Vice President George H.W. Bush successfully ran for president in 1988. Bush was the last Republican to win Michigan until Trump narrowly defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016, by two-tenths of a percentage point.

Four years ago, Biden won Michigan by about 3 percentage points to win the White House.

The new poll joins other recent polls showing growing support for Trump in other swing states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, further casting doubt on Biden’s re-election chances amid questions about his age — at 81, he’s already the oldest president ever — and mental fitness. Tellingly, the poll found a majority of respondents, 52%, believed Biden should step aside and not run, compared with 36% who believed he should remain the Democratic nominee. Twelve percent were undecided.

More than 30 Democratic members of Congress have called for Biden to be removed as the nominee, including one of Michigan’s members, U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids).

In the poll, Democrats were split on whether Biden should step aside, with 46% saying he should, 43% saying he shouldn’t and 11% undecided. Independents and Republicans were more certain, with 55% of each bloc saying he should resign and 32% saying he shouldn’t, with the rest undecided.

Importantly, 51% of Black voters — a key Democratic constituency — said Biden should remain the nominee, compared to 39% who said he should resign.

The poll found that if Biden were to leave office, 19% believed Vice President Kamala Harris should replace him as the nominee; 17% said Gov. Gretchen Whitmer; and 11% said former first lady Michelle Obama. Of the five other names tested — California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker — none scored above single digits. Twenty percent of respondents said a different name.

The poll did not test direct confrontations between Trump and other potential Democratic candidates.

Meanwhile, criticism of Trump, either as a danger to democracy for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election or for his criminal charges and conviction for falsifying corporate records to hide payments to a porn actress, didn’t appear to hurt him among voters: 53 percent said his legal troubles would have no impact on their decision in November’s general election.

Forty-seven percent of respondents said they were more afraid of Biden remaining president than of Trump returning, compared to 43% who said they were more afraid of Trump returning. Five percent said they feared neither, and 5% were undecided or declined to answer.

The poll also found that more voters had a more positive view of Trump, with 45% saying they viewed him favorably, compared to 48% who viewed him unfavorably. In the last EPIC-MRA poll in June, that view was split: 41% favorably and 54% unfavorably.

Biden’s numbers were much worse, with only 36% rating him positively and 57% unfavorably.

Voters unfamiliar with Project 2025 reject EV efforts

The poll also found that Democrats outperformed Biden in at least one potential race on lower ballots: In a head-to-head contest for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, considered by many observers to be the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, led 43%-40% over the Republican front-runner, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, of Brighton, who was undecided at 17%.

But those numbers are still within the margin of error in a state where no Republican has won a Senate seat in 30 years.

There were also indications that the Biden campaign’s efforts to fire up voters by linking Trump to the so-called Project 2025 — a vision of a conservative overthrow of the federal bureaucracy written by some of his former aides and advisers — haven’t had much success in Michigan: 57% said they knew little or had never heard of it before the pollster asked them about it; 27% said they were somewhat familiar with it; and just 15% said they were very familiar with it.

After the pollster read a description of some of Project 2025’s recommendations, including cutting taxes on corporations, repealing the Affordable Care Act and giving the White House more say over Justice Department decisions, 65% of respondents said they disapproved of the program, compared to just 25% who approved.

However, Trump and his campaign have repeatedly indicated that he does not support Project 2025 and that he does not plan to implement its recommendations if re-elected.

Meanwhile, 55% of voters said they disagree with the Biden administration’s efforts to get automakers to produce and sell more electric vehicles, an effort Republicans have called a “mandate.” Forty percent said they approve of the effort, and 5% were undecided.

On the issues front, 31% cited inflation and the high cost of living as their top concerns, and 17% noted immigration along the southern border; both of which are issues Trump and Republicans have used against Biden and Democrats. And when it comes to one of the biggest issues of the 2022 midterms, abortion, 12% said protecting abortion rights was most important. Democrats have continued to criticize Trump and the rest of the GOP over the issue of reproductive rights this election cycle, but it may have less of an effect in Michigan this year after voters overwhelmingly decided two years ago to add reproductive rights protections to the state constitution after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling.

Male, white voters largely support Trump

The poll found that Biden held a commanding lead among black voters overall, 64% to Trump’s 11% in the five-way race, with 15% going to third-party candidates and 10% undecided, though that was less support than exit polls showed he got from that bloc four years ago. Among the broader white electorate, 48% backed Trump, compared with just 33% for Biden and 10% for third-party candidates.

Among different age groups, Biden won by just one: voters 65 and older, 50% of whom supported him, compared with 41% for Trump, 3% for third-party candidates and 6% undecided or declining to respond. Younger voters, ages 18-34, seen as a key bloc for Democrats, were split 33%-33% between Biden and Trump, with 22% choosing a third-party option.

Male voters overwhelmingly supported Trump, 47% to 31% for Biden. While women backed Biden, 41%-39%, that wasn’t nearly strong enough to overwhelm male support for the Republican candidate.

Trump led among Republicans with 84% support, with just 3% saying they would back Biden. Among Democrats, 77% backed Biden compared with 4% who backed Trump. The main bloc of self-described independents split 33% for Trump, 27% for Biden and 22% for a third-party candidate, with a large chunk of that support — 14% — going to Kennedy. Another 14% were undecided, declined to answer or said they would vote for someone else or not at all.

An education gap also persisted among voters’ choices: Among voters with a high school diploma or less, 51% favored Trump, compared to 29% for Biden, 14% for third-party candidates, and 6% undecided. Voters with some college or post-high school education favored Trump over Biden 44%-31%. Voters with a college degree supported Biden 43% to 38% for Trump, with 9% going to third-party candidates.

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tspangler.