Democrats’ election odds favor Harris after Biden withdraws

President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race on Sunday, upending the political campaign and gambling markets.

Vice President Kamala Harris solidified her position as the leading Democratic candidate in the betting market, completing a campaign that began after Biden was diagnosed with COVID on Wednesday.

Biden endorsed Harris in a separate social media post, followed by the Clintons, who remain major players in the party.

Former President Donald Trump remains the favorite in the presidential race, which bookmakers in the U.S. are banned from placing bets on. However, his odds at Bovada and BetOnline have increased compared to before he formally accepted the Republican nomination.

Here are the odds for the presidential and Democratic nominations as of July 21.

Chances of presidential election

Bovada

Donald Trump: -215
Kamala Harris: +190
Michelle Obama: +2800
Gavin Newsom: +3300
Gretchen Whitmer: +4000

Betting Online

Donald Trump: -200
Kamala Harris: +200
Michelle Obama: +2000
Gretchen Whitmer: +2500
Gavin Newsom: +3300

Odds Counter

Donald Trump: -156
Kamala Harris: +300
Michelle Obama: +3500
Gavin Newsom: +4100
Gretchen Whitmer: +4700

Chances of Democratic nomination

Bovada

Kamala Harris: -400
Michelle Obama: +1200
Gretchen Whitmer: +1200
Gavin Newsom: +1400
Hillary Clinton: +1600

Odds Counter

Kamala Harris: -435
Gavin Newsom: +1850
Michelle Obama: +2100
Gretchen Whitmer: +2300
Hillary Clinton: +3300

How accurate were the odds in previous presidential elections?

According to The Conversation, the favourite has lost only twice since 1866.

The two upsets occurred in 1948, when Harry Truman (D) defeated Thomas Dewey (R) by an odds of eight to one, and in 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton (D) by an odds of seven to two.

Biden was the favorite for the 2020 race and held pole position with Oddscheker from May through November.