If Broncos’ season goes badly, two scapegoats will lose their jobs

The Denver Broncos’ season has essentially begun.

The team will hold a press conference with head coach Sean Payton on Tuesday, followed by its annual media BBQ. This will mark the start of training camp, with two practices on Wednesday and Thursday before fans are allowed to enter Broncos Park starting on Friday.

It doesn’t feel like football weather outside, but unfortunately we’re already there.

And while no one wants to think about a bad season for the Broncos, unfortunately that seems more likely than not. Many respected sites have called Denver’s roster the worst in football. There’s a three-man QB competition going on right now. It’s not the same conversation people are having in cities with Super Bowl aspirations.

If the year goes wrong, there will be scapegoats who lose their jobs. There always is. Last year, Payton ran Russell Wilson out of town, but he still has two men to blame if the Broncos are at the bottom of the NFL.

The first and most obvious is GM George Paton. Frankly, it’s remarkable that Paton still has a job. Owner and CEO Greg Penner has been great since he took over a few years ago, but it’s puzzling that he hasn’t fired Paton yet.

Paton made one of the worst deals in NFL history by acquiring Wilson. He then gave away one of the worst contracts in league history, a contract extension that saw Wilson never play in a Broncos uniform. And to do so, he hired perhaps the worst head coach in NFL history, Nathaniel Hackett. Penner had to fire him after just 15 pathetic games.

So while many were surprised that Paton wasn’t fired with Hackett, or after last season, he’s still there. That may be intentional. Payton wants people to take the blame when things go wrong. Outside of Penner, he has the most power at Dove Valley, and a 6-11 season or worse could easily lead to Paton being fired.

But there’s another name to watch. And that’s defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. Many thought “VJ” would lose his job after the Dolphins’ disastrous 70-point game early last season. That didn’t happen, and to Joseph’s credit, the group was the catalyst for a surprising five-game winning streak.

However, respected defensive mind Jim Leonhard was brought in this offseason to coach the team’s defensive backs. In many people’s eyes, he’s Joseph’s replacement. One or two bad games from the defense in September or October, and Joseph could be gone, with Leonhard waiting in the wings.

One of the big stories last year about letting Joseph go was, “Who’s going to take his place?” Payton already has the answer to that question.

The reality is that Payton’s seat is icy. He’s not going anywhere as he enters the second year of a five-year contract. The temperature is rising for Paton and Joseph, however. Many thought they’d both be fired last year, but Payton blamed Wilson for most of Denver’s failures. He’ll need a new target this year if this Broncos season leaves them at the bottom of the AFC West.

Paton would be a scapegoat, but he did enough wrong to deserve the firing. The same can’t be said for Joseph, whose defense created turnovers last season to keep Denver in the playoff race surprisingly late in the season.

Are layoffs in the NFL justified? Sometimes they are and sometimes they aren’t, but they are a harsh reality of the league. No one who pays even a passing attention to the Broncos would be shocked if Paton and/or Joseph lost their jobs in the next six months.

We’ll just have to wait and see which one Payton picks, or maybe both. Or better yet, Denver shocks the world, makes the postseason, and everyone keeps their current jobs.