Is it a good bet that Michigan State will achieve its expected number of wins?

As Michigan State and coach Jonathan Smith prepare for their first season together, there are plenty of reasons for optimism and skepticism.

Coach Smith came into East Lansing in what was probably one of the toughest situations for any new coach in college football this season. Michigan State also has one of the most challenging schedules of any team in the Big Ten and the country. For those reasons and more, there is little hope that Michigan State will have a successful first season under Smith.

However, Smith secured one of the better transfer portal classes in the country this offseason, giving Michigan State a shot this season. Justin Thind of 247Sports believes Michigan State will exceed expectations and win more than the four games they are projected to win this upcoming season.

“MSU went 4-8 last season with poor coaching, poor buy-in and less talent than this season at every position except starting DT and backup OT, in my opinion,” Thind said. “This was after stifling wins in the Rutgers and Iowa games. You could also argue — despite the final scores — that the Minnesota and Maryland games would have been wins if not for a few mistakes. The point is, that team was competitive in all but three games (two of them against national title game contenders and the other against OSU). You want to tell me they’ll win four games again in 2024? I’ll take that.”

Time will tell if the Michigan State football team can surprise those who think it will only win four or five games. It should be noted, however, that Michigan State plays Florida Atlantic and Prarie View A&M at home to open the season. While nothing is guaranteed in sports, these should be two of Michigan State’s four expected wins.

Michigan State also closes out the season with three of its final four games in East Lansing against must-win conference opponents Indiana Purdue and Rutgers. The fourth game is away against Illinois. That would be another winnable game for a Michigan State team that had grown and developed as a team in the preceding weeks.

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