United States favorite to lead medal count at Paris Games, China could challenge for most gold

BY STEPHEN WADE

With the Olympic Games in Paris starting this week, the United States is the favorite to win the most medals. China is unlikely to overtake the U.S. in overall medal haul, but it does have a chance to win more gold medals than the Americans.

While the Games celebrate the greatest individual athletes, they are also a vehicle for geopolitical influence and national pride.

The United States is expected to win a total of 112 medals — 39 gold, 32 silver and 41 bronze. China is expected to win a total of 86 medals — 34 gold, 27 silver and 25 bronze.

This forecast is from Nielsen’s Gracenot e Sports, which provides statistical analysis for sports competitions around the world. It also tracks major competitions related to Olympic sports in the run-up to the Games.

The United States and China finished 1st and 2nd in both categories at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, which were postponed due to the pandemic.

The International Olympic Committee does not compile medal rankings. Gracenote has calculated its rankings based on total medals won, although others base their rankings on total gold medals.

The prediction for the Americans at the top is no surprise. This would be the eighth consecutive time that the United States has won the most medals at the Summer Games. The Unified team topped the total count in 1992 in Barcelona, ​​​​composed of athletes from the former Soviet Union, just after it dissolved as a sovereign state.

The last Summer Olympics in which the United States did not top the gold medal standings was in Beijing in 2008.

Olympic Games in Paris

After the United States and China, the following countries in line in terms of total scores and gold totals are: Great Britain (63-17), France (60-27), Australia (54-15), Japan (47-13), Italy (46-11), Germany (35-11), Netherlands (34-16), South Korea (26-9).

The next places 11 to 20 are: Canada (21-7), Hungary (20-7), Brazil (18-8), Spain (18-5), Poland (17-3), Denmark (14-5), Turkey (14-4), New Zealand (14-4), Ukraine (13-2), Ethiopia (12-6).

As hosts, countries always receive a medal bonus, and France is expected to win almost three times as many gold medals as it did in Tokyo.

This time the medals will be inlaid with a small piece of the Eiffel Tower.

Host countries spend more money on the Olympic Games on home soil, and home crowds also ensure that athletes can compete in their familiar surroundings.

Conversely, Japan won a record 58 medals and 27 gold in Tokyo three years ago. This time it will surely fail.

The unknown factor is the presence of Russian and — to a lesser extent — Belarusian athletes. They have been absent from most international competitions in the past two years because of the war in Ukraine. And by order of the IOC, the medals won by these athletes are not allowed to be included in a medal table.

More than 300 Russian athletes competed in Tokyo three years ago. This time the total is perhaps only a dozen or so.