Fantasy football best ball stacking strategy: predicted stack leaders, plus best and worst values

With so much great work done on the importance of stacking in the best ball formats, I wanted to approach things differently and examine the market’s macro perception of team value through the lens of cost vs. projections. Since it’s by far the most involved and therefore liquid market, I’ve used the current Underdog ADP, with associated site projections, and a few basic rules. All picks must fall within the top 200, but I’ve also limited each team to six players in order to cover all starting skill positions without too many backups to skew the totals. I’m not sure what I’ll find, but I hope you enjoy.

The expected team point totals are exactly what you’d expect, but at the same time, they can be misleading at first glance, so let me first provide some nuance. Given the automated nature of Best Ball Score, only the highest totals are recorded each week. As such, it’s theoretically possible for a player with a lower total to have a greater impact on your season than a player with more total points. For example, Michael Pittman (who I like, but happens to fit into the example) finished as the fantasy WR13 in 2023 without finishing in the top seven at that position each week once the entire season. Meanwhile, Drake London and Tank Dell both finished outside of WR3 range despite two top-five finishes each – with Dell being the shining example of the spike week’s impact, posting +25 FPS in 30% of active games. So it’s worth acknowledging the argument against consistency without the possibility of a true ceiling. Okay, let’s get to the stacks…

Top 10 Team Predicted Fantasy Points

Bottom 10 Team Projected Fantasy Points

At first glance, the highest projected stacks seem mostly chalky and in line with early expectations. The vast majority of analysts correctly think that San Francisco, Kansas City, Miami, and Philadelphia will continue to move the stone at will, so suggesting them feels uninspiring. It’s worth noting, however, that the majority of the remaining teams weren’t even on this list the year before. It speaks to the inherent level of year-over-year variance that should limit the extreme level of certainty of any top baller. Factor in the nonstop spinning of the injury roulette wheel and the focus suddenly shifts to price plus track record as the primary contributing factor. This isn’t to say you should avoid premium stacks (you shouldn’t!), but if you overpay and miss, realize that team is DOA. The point is, you only get to pick one, so choose wisely.

In this year’s case, the Bears clearly stand out as the biggest leap forward in 2024. It’s not just the presence of a rookie QB that’s clouding the projections; changes to both the offensive and defensive coordinators will surely make the outcomes even harder to predict. Given that there are nine other teams with similar projections/prices atop the standings, I’d rather put my money on the track records of more predictable assets.

So far this year, I’ve found myself leaning into my highest perceived ceiling and stacking the Dolphins when Tyreek Hill is available as my first-round pick. Follow the “Cheetah” up with De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle in rounds 2-3, then call it a day on the league’s narrowest target tree for 100 picks until it’s time for Tua Tagovailoa. On the occasions my draft slot prevents me from stacking Miami, give me the old reliable. Somehow, for the first time in recent memory, there isn’t a single Chief drafted in the top 40. This makes acquiring a Kansas City stack relatively easy if you’re willing to move everyone up a round. It also puts you in the enviable position of adding elite pieces up top before the primary stack begins.

There’s a lot to be strategically unpacked about the downside of team projections, because it’s not as easy as avoiding them entirely. Hitting the right “bad” stack, especially at low prices, can be what puts you in overall contention. We’ll get into value judgments later, but keep the variance I alluded to earlier in mind. Last year, there were two mega-hits from behind on the board. Both Houston (CJ Stroud, Devin Singletary, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz) and the Los Angeles Rams (Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua) were largely ignored as winners in the contest, but represented all the best picks in the latter rounds. The lesson here? Leverage can be created through uniqueness, so don’t shy away from taking the path less traveled if solid analysis leads you there.

I haven’t flagplanted my favorite bad stack yet, but I’ve seen myself grouping Saints lately. Aside from Chris Olave (who you could also insert into early draft plans), Alvin Kamara lands outside the top 75 pick, while the rest of New Orleans’ offense (Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson) is available after the No. 100 pick without much fanfare.

10 Most Expensive Team Stacks

Philadelphia Eagles — 42.0 Average ADP
Kansas City Chiefs — 52.4 Average ADP
Detroit Lions — 57.0 Average ADP
Houston Texans — 57.2 Average ADP
San Francisco 49ers — 61.3 Average ADP
Dallas Cowboys — 69.5 Average ADP
Miami Dolphins — 70.6 Average ADP
Buffalo Bills — 71.5 Average ADP
Indianapolis Colts — 72.2 Average ADP
Las Vegas Raiders — 80.4 Average ADP

10 Cheapest Team Stacks

Trying to hit the best hand on the most expensive stacks is a tough task – that team must perform as expected or your entry fee is gone. I said above that I drafted the Dolphins because of their narrow target tree and incredibly high ceiling, or fall back to the Chiefs if that situation never arises. The only “high-priced” team I avoid entirely is the Raiders, who only made the list because they have only four players in the top 200, with none after Jakobi Meyers’ ~ADP 120.

While it’s important to be different, the critical importance of building quarterback-to-pass catcher batteries has been widely consolidated. So from my perspective, optimal builds include two stacks to cover byes and down weeks. As pairing the best teams in a snake format becomes prohibitively expensive, locking in a “cheap” stack may become the most crucial part of your draft strategy. I generally begin my search for value with two things in mind: the availability of a dual-threat QB and what the most expensive piece on that team costs.

The first part is pretty self-explanatory, pointing to the only two mobile QBs — Daniel Jones and, to a lesser extent, Deshaun Watson. Running quarterbacks provide fantasy floors that pave a path to weekly viability. The last part is less often mentioned but just as important, because it puts direct pressure on that particular draft plan. What I mean is that once you have a commitment, you have to execute — which sometimes means paying up for picks that already carry a premium.

LAR just missed the cutoff, but the Rams are a perfect example of this: If you want to combine Puka Nacua (ADP 10), Cooper Kupp (ADP 28), and Kyren Williams (ADP 31), you’ll need your first three picks, any of which could end up ahead of the consensus depending on slotting. Combining total points with price creates perspective on value (below) and offers a broad visualization for natural stacking pairs. Since each team has a unique cost structure, it’s not as simple as picking one team from each list, but it’s a good first step.