Democratic ticket switch has no impact on LA election

What does the revolt against the electorate by Democratic power brokers that ousted Democratic President Joe Biden from a new term in the White House, almost certainly to be replaced by Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, mean for electoral politics in Louisiana? Absolutely nothing.

Many of the party’s leaders and activist cadres turned against Biden, not because they worried that he would be unable to lead the country, not because they feared for his health, but because they saw an electoral landslide for Republican former President Donald Trump and the GOP if he could remain at the top of the ticket. The move was a purely political calculation, an exercise in trying to maintain maximum power come 2025.

For them, that would ideally mean reversing the current campaign momentum and promoting Harris. But realistically, they and the political left know that this is a long shot, with Harris perhaps the weakest possible replacement. It’s telling that all of her perceived competitors have been quick to endorse her, presumably because they see this election as doomed for their party’s nominee and don’t want that hanging over their necks. Their distaste for potential damage to their political careers is so great that some are even turning down the job of vice presidential running mate out of hand.

Then there are the practical considerations. As a party obsessed with identitarian politics, there would be a civil war among Democrats if the torch wasn’t passed to a bypassed black woman (Harris was born to a black Jamaican father and a South Asian Indian mother, but identifies as black and, importantly because Democrats are also increasingly obsessed with gender, also as a woman.) Moreover, many of the legal complexities surrounding finance would be avoided by having her as the nominee.

The plan, then, is to hope for the best but prepare for the worst, while keeping the bank’s 2028 potential maximally intact. And the preferred semi-sacrificial lamb to keep leftist dreams alive would be someone who can do the best job of salvaging lower-tier fortunes by attracting voters to prevent the increasingly vulnerable incumbents of the House and Senate from being ejected by voters.

Harris checks the box, and so it’s a foregone conclusion. Democrats aren’t throwing away a superior candidate for the future, and as a certified affirmative action appointment, Harris hopes that as a black person, he can stem the trickle of black voters into Trump’s column that, if left unchecked at current levels, would not only produce a mini-landslide in his favor but could also cost Democrats several Senate seats and dozens in the House. And, in picking a running mate, Harris could pick someone from a swing state with imperiled congressional candidates and hope to build up a following to potentially salvage a few more seats.

Of course, that last consideration is irrelevant in Louisiana, which is by no means a swing state. But neither is the calculation of how to sway black voters away from Trump or bring them off the sidelines to vote Democratic, for a different reason.

At both the congressional and state levels, the only races that Democrats can win are in districts deliberately designed to encourage black winners. So in both the 2nd and 6th districts, Harris’s bonus of black voters at the top of the ticket will have no impact, since black candidates are already running for those positions that will encourage black voting. The same is true for the Supreme Court District 2 race. And in the only state race that is not in a black-majority district and that did not attract a black candidate, given the large overlap with these other Public Service Commission District 2 races, Harris will still only stimulate a trivial number of additional black voters in this one for Democrats, who in this race are essentially fielding a cipher candidate whose lone Democrat momentum will only carry him to the runoff if one of the two Republicans vastly outpolls the other, who would then defeat that Democrat in a runoff.

Even the most important local race this cycle, for mayor-president of Baton Rouge, won’t give Harris a black voter bonus, since the two leading candidates in that race are black and will do much to boost turnout, in addition to the overlap in the other races. That factor will shape the area races even further down the ballot without Harris’ candidacy, unlike Biden’s, at the top of the ticket. If the mid-term horse swap has any effect, it would only trickle down to shape the smallest offices, if there are any such races at all.

So Harris becoming the presumptive nominee has a big zero impact in Louisiana. It’s unlikely to help Democrats’ presidential hopes, but on the margins it could limit congressional losses outside Louisiana and perhaps give Democrats a small boost in states and jurisdictions that aren’t predominantly black but do have substantial black voting blocs, but that won’t include Louisiana.