An attack from Lebanon killed 12 young people. Could it spark a war between Israel and Hezbollah?

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — The Middle East braced for a possible flare-up of violence Sunday after Israeli authorities said a rocket from Lebanon hit a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers in what the military called the deadliest attack on civilians since Oct. 7. The strike raised fears of a broader regional war between Israel and Hezbollah, which denied any role in the attack.

The Israeli military said last night that it had struck a number of targets in Lebanon, although the intensity of the strikes was similar to months of border fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

Saturday’s attack comes at a sensitive time as Israel and Hamas negotiate a proposed ceasefire to end the nearly 10-month war in Gaza and free the approximately 110 hostages still held there.

Below you can see the broader implications of Saturday’s attack:

What happened?

Just before sunset on Saturday, a rocket struck a soccer field where dozens of children and teenagers were playing in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, which is about 12 kilometers (7 miles) south of Lebanon and next to the Syrian border. Twelve youths between the ages of 10 and 20 were killed and 20 wounded, the Israeli military said.

“I feel darkness inside and outside. Nothing like this has happened here,” said Anan Abu Saleh, a resident of Majdal Shams, from the football field on Saturday night. “This is inexplicable. I saw children, I don’t want to say what I saw, but it’s terrible, really terrible. We need more security.”

Shrapnel and blood spatter littered the field as rescuers gathered burned backpacks and bicycles. As the night progressed, residents began setting up hundreds of chairs on the field where the attack took place to hold a mass memorial service. Residents told Israeli media it was the only place in the city that could accommodate the tens of thousands of people expected to gather.

On Sunday morning, many of the bodies were taken to a community center in Majdal Shams, where relatives wept over the caskets. Around noon, the coffins, draped in white cloth and bearing photographs of the victims, were taken to the cemetery, passed through a crowd of thousands and lined up for burial. One 11-year-old child is still missing, residents told Israeli media.

Who are the Druze?

The Druze are a religious sect that began as an offshoot of Shiite Islam. There are Druze communities in Israel, Syria and Lebanon. There are about 140,000 Druze in Israel, 25,000 of whom live in four cities in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, according to Yusri Hazran of the Hebrew University, who is a Druze and researches minorities in the Middle East.

The Druze community is considered to be among Israel’s most loyal citizens. Many Druze serve in the Israeli army, although those living in the Golan Heights have a more tense relationship with the authorities.

Israel captured and annexed the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau overlooking northern Israel, from Syria in the 1967 Middle East War. Much of the international community considers the area occupied.

While Druze leaders in the Golan still profess allegiance to Syria, relations with Israel are generally good. The Druze towns in the Golan are a popular vacation destination for Israelis and are filled with hotels and restaurants, and most Druze residents speak fluent Hebrew.

What could this mean for Lebanon and for a broader war?

The attacks on the border between Israel and Lebanon have simmered just below the threshold of all-out war since the conflict began in October. But the deadly toll of the attack and the young age of the victims could prompt Israel to respond more forcefully.

Iran-backed Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel the day after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, and Israel has responded with air and drone strikes on what it calls Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. Most of the attacks have been limited to areas on both sides of the border, though Israel has also killed Hezbollah and Hamas leaders farther north in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border have evacuated the area.

Since early October, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed more than 500 people, mostly Hezbollah members, but also about 90 civilians. On the Israeli side, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in America at the time of the attack, warned that Hezbollah “will pay a high price for this attack, a price it has not paid so far.”

Israeli army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi met with Majdal Shams leaders Saturday night and said Israel was preparing for “the next phase of the battle” in the north. “We know how to strike even far from the State of Israel,” he said.

In a rare response, Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, but Halevi said it was a Falaq rocket with a 53-kilogram warhead belonging to Hezbollah.

U.S. intelligence agencies have no doubt that Hezbollah carried out the attack on the Golan Heights. However, according to a source not authorized to comment publicly, it is not clear whether the militant group deliberately hit the target or whether the attack failed.

The Lebanese government, in a statement that did not mention Majdal Shams, called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts” and condemned all attacks on civilians.

Iran warned Israel on Sunday that a strong response to the attack on the Golan Heights would lead to “unprecedented consequences.”

“Every unwise action by the Zionist regime is a basis for spreading instability, uncertainty and war in the region,” said Nasser Kanaani, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry. The years-long shadow war between Iran and Israel exploded in April, when Iran fired 300 missiles and drones into Israel, most of which were intercepted, in response to the killing of an Iranian general.

What implications could this have for the war in Gaza?

An Egyptian official said the attack on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights could boost negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza, which would have repercussions on the front between Israel and Hezbollah.

He said mediators would use such an attack to force a ceasefire in Gaza and thus avoid an all-out war in the region.

“Both fronts are connected,” he said. “A ceasefire in Gaza will lead to a ceasefire with Hezbollah.”

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the sensitive conversations with the media.

Officials from the United States, Egypt and Qatar will meet Israeli officials in Rome on Sunday as part of the latest effort to broker a ceasefire in Gaza.

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Magdy reported from Cairo.