Machado said there are safeguards on the table

“Guarantees” and “incentives” are on the table for negotiations with the Venezuelan government, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said in an interview yesterday. Such guarantees would depend on President Nicolás Maduro’s willingness to recognize the victory of opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia in the July 28 presidential election, she said. (Miami Herald)

Machado told Colombian television channel Caracol that any offers to negotiate with the Maduro regime are still at “too early stages to say that there are negotiations.”

Yesterday, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia issued a statement renewing their call on Maduro to release the full voting results. They said it would be “useful” to have an independent verification of the official results that are released, and that security forces must guarantee the right to protest, within the limits of the law.Chair Vacía)

Without the support of China and Russia, which have backed Maduro and recognized his government, there will be no multilateral solution to the crisis plaguing Venezuela, Chatham House’s Christopher Sabatini told the Guardian: “Ultimately it will come down to bilateral or ad hoc diplomacy.”

More Venezuela

• After the elections, Venezuela’s Chavista government retains control of the country’s institutions and security forces, but has lost its popular mandate, particularly among the country’s poor. While international mediation can help, pressure on Venezuela’s streets by citizens who want their vote to count will be decisive, writes Boris Muñoz in Tree.

• There are no signs that the regime is about to lose its grip on power, but key signals to watch for include military loyalty, internal political divisions and the loss of support from international allies, reports America’s Quarterly(For more information about transitions, see Central.)

• Fear of repression has led to an unofficial curfew on the streets of Caracas, the BBC. (To see yesterday’s message.)

• Amid an X-fight with Elon Musk, Maduro blocked access to the social media platform in Venezuela for 10 days. Earlier this week, Maduro urged his supporters to leave WhatsApp, saying the messaging app was being used to threaten the families of soldiers and police officers. He also lashed out at TikTok and Instagram.AFP, Associated Press)

• Social media is one of the few places where you can consume news and promote content for relatively free, according to reports in Venezuela The countryand a space that “is used and exploited with tenacity by Chavismo in its communication strategies.”

• Amnesty International sent an open letter to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, calling for urgent measures against the commission of crimes under international law in Venezuela.

Regional relations

• “In a discussion hosted by the Washington think tank Atlantic Council on Thursday, Frank Mora, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States, said he understood the frustration of those calling for bolder action from the United States given the Maduro regime’s crackdown on protesters, opposition figures and journalists. But he said it was important to give initiatives like those in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico “space to move forward.” – Miami Herald

• International mediation is the best way to reach a power-sharing agreement between the opposition and Maduro, and will be crucial to ensuring the electoral viability of the Latin American left in the future, Will Freeman argues in the report Council for Foreign Relations.

• Nicaragua and Brazil recalled their ambassadors, effectively freezing diplomatic relations. The move was prompted by the Brazilian ambassador’s absence from celebrations marking the 45th anniversary of Nicaragua’s Sandinista revolution, but relations have been deteriorating since Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva unsuccessfully tried to intervene to free a Catholic bishop persecuted by Ortega’s government, according to reports People of S. Paulo. (See also Associated Press)

• U.S. “federal investigators say they have found the DNA of a decorated former U.S. Green Beret on some of the 60 automatic weapons he allegedly smuggled from Florida to South America as part of a failed 2020 coup attempt against” Maduro, the Associated Press.

• The Paraguayan government has effectively ordered the US ambassador to leave after the US Biden administration imposed sanctions on a tobacco company with ties to Paraguay’s powerful former president, Horacio Cartes.Associated Press)

• Argentine President Javier Milei was in Chile yesterday, but he did not meet Chilean President Gabriel Boric.Page 12)

• Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has rejected a request from the Ukrainian government to arrest Vladimir Putin if the Russian leader ignores an international arrest warrant and attends the inauguration of Mexico’s next president in October.Reuters)

Colombia

• Colombian President Gustavo Petro suggested that Ivan Mordisco, the commander of the rebel group Estado Mayor Central, planned to have him assassinated by snipers. A ceasefire between the Colombian government and the EMC collapsed last month. (Reuters)

• “Two years after President Gustavo Petro took office, Total Peace, the Colombian government’s flagship policy to end the country’s civil conflict, analyses show that criminal groups have grown in strength, while peace is still far away,” explains InSight Crime based on a new report from PARES.

• “Significant progress in security and peace efforts is unlikely in the next two years. Ongoing peace initiatives are likely to remain stagnant, wasting time and resources, while armed groups can consolidate and grow stronger as they wait to deal with Petro’s successor,” a report by Colombia Risk Analysis.

Mexico

• Mexico’s ruling Morena party plans to amend President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s controversial judicial reform proposal in an attempt to calm market concerns, CBS reports. Reuters. Amendments would stagger the election of judges, to prevent a political takeover of the judiciary, and candidates would be selected by a technical committee after undergoing aptitude tests. (See Wednesday’s briefs.)

• Mexican business groups warned of economic damage as a protest blockade of Mexico’s main east-west highway stretched into a second full day, the Associated Press.

Migration

• Migrants entering the U.S. have plummeted following President Joe Biden’s asylum ban, but leading Democrats are questioning the human cost, the Guardian.

• Venezuelan refugees on the cutting edge at the Colombian border – photo essay by Euan Wallace in the Guardian.

Ecuador

• A growing number of doctors in Ecuador have been targeted by gangs, further endangering the country’s overburdened health system, the Guardian.

• A year after Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated during his campaign, the investigation into his murder is mired in corruption and security failures, reports The country.

El Salvador

• According to Bukele’s government, the killings have been underestimated since the crackdown in 2022. Foreign policy.

Peru

• The United Nations has condemned the adoption of a bill in Peru that would ban the prosecution of crimes against humanity committed before 2002, saying it is contrary to international law. AFP

Argentina

• Photos of former first lady Fabiola Yáñez with bruises and a black eye have shocked Argentina, which has accused former President Alberto Fernández of gender-based violence. (Herald of Buenos Aires)

• His former vice president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, said the photos “reveal the most sordid and dark side of the human condition” and that “misogyny, machismo and hypocrisy, the pillars on which verbal or physical violence against women is based, have no party-political flag.”Information)

• Pope Francis received the daughter and granddaughter of a person who disappeared during Argentina’s last dictatorship, calling on his homeland to adopt a policy of memory and justice amid a scandal after ruling party lawmakers visited human rights abusers in prison.The country)

Regional

• Members of the International Seabed Authority last week elected Leticia Carvalho of Brazil as the group’s new secretary general, amid growing support for an interim freeze on deep seabed mining, the Associated Press.

• Carvalho told Foreign Policy that her fight to defend natural habitats from powerful extractive interests stems from her background overseeing Brazil’s environmental policy. Latin America in brief

Animal corner

• “With his floppy ears and a tail on his costume that comes loose after all the wrestling, Wisin, the “puppy wrestler,” has captured the imagination of fans across Mexico.” — Associated Press