MATT EAGAN: The border crisis is a huge cost to American taxpayers, despite what the CBO says

A recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that the continued rise in illegal immigration at the southern border will reduce the federal budget deficit by as much as $897 billion over the next decade.

At first glance, this figure may seem like a silver lining in this national crisis. But a closer look reveals a more complex and troubling picture, and shows that this report is yet another example of the government trying to hide the truth from American citizens.

While the CBO projects $1.175 trillion in revenue growth and $278 billion in net interest and mandatory spending over the next 10 years, these numbers do not capture the full scale of the situation. The report’s limitations and glaring omissions paint an incomplete picture that could lead to misguided policy decisions if Congress does not understand the true fiscal implications of the border crisis. By publishing such an incomplete report, the CBO is playing a role in covering up the Biden-Harris border crisis and not giving Congress the information it needs to fix it.

One notable omission is the exclusion of the impact of discretionary spending. The CBO acknowledges that the immigration surge will likely strain many programs funded through discretionary appropriations. In fact, the CBO estimates that increased discretionary funding resulting from the border surge could total about $200 billion over the 2024-2034 period. This substantial amount is cited but not included in the deficit reduction calculation because, as the CBO puts it, “there is no clear basis for projecting how the immigration surge will affect (Congressional) funding decisions.”

Furthermore, the report “does not include estimates of the effects of the increase on state and local budgets.” The CBO itself admits that “(r)esearch has generally shown that increases in immigration increase state and local government costs more than they increase revenues, and CBO expects that finding to hold true for current immigration increases.” New York City alone spent $4.3 billion from July 2022 to March 2024 to house immigrants and comply with existing housing policies. Extrapolating that to other cities over a decade paints a sobering picture of the financial burden on local communities.

The state of Texas was forced to take action on its own. First with Operation Lone Star (OLS), a response to the border crisis that arose from the Biden-Harris administration’s failure to enforce federal laws along the border. OLS has cost Texas residents approximately $11 billion, and that’s just to secure the border. That doesn’t include the costs for the state’s health care, education, and criminal justice systems, which are increasing with the addition of aliens admitted by the Biden-Harris administration. The CBO report does not adequately assess or include these costs, and they are found in every state.

The revenue calculations assume lower tax compliance rates among the population that entered the country through the border crisis, raising questions about the accuracy of the projected $1.2 trillion in additional revenue.

In addition to the fiscal impact, the report hints at broader economic consequences. The rise in illegal immigration is expected to lead to lower productivity, lower average wage growth (particularly for non-college-educated workers), higher interest rates, and higher medical and food prices. These factors could have far-reaching consequences for the U.S. economy and the well-being of citizens.

Perhaps most troubling is the CBO’s own admission that its “estimates of the budgetary effects of the immigration surge are highly uncertain.” The report lists numerous “(major) sources of uncertainty,” including the number of aliens who have entered the country, the duration of the border crisis itself, the changing immigration status of individuals, and their impact on productivity. In essence, many of the statistics crucial to the estimate are shrouded in uncertainty, and the report’s authors knew this and still published these estimates claiming that mass illegal immigration is driving up the deficit.

Making policy decisions based on such questionable projections, where the political left clearly has its thumb on the scale, could have disastrous consequences and exacerbate existing problems. We must demand a more comprehensive analysis that takes into account all the costs — both visible and invisible. Not a report that is politically attractive to the left’s narrative on illegal immigration.

The border crisis isn’t just about numbers on a balance sheet. As we debate immigration policy, we need to consider not just the potential fiscal benefits, but also the hidden costs and societal consequences. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that there were 74,702 overdose deaths in the United States last year from fentanyl — a drug we know is coming through our open southern border.

Human trafficking and smuggling into the United States is a booming multi-billion dollar business for Mexican cartels. We must end this crisis now. When comparing the fiscal impact to the human cost, money seems secondary and that is true, but understanding the monetary impact is important to solving the larger problem.

The CBO report should be viewed as flawed and, overall, a burden because it does not give Congress the information it needs to take action. The future of our country depends on us getting this right.

With a fair and complete review, we can get good legislation like the Secure the Border Act signed, force strong executive actions from future presidents, and keep Americans safe. These policies ensure our nation knows who is coming in and what the consequences are for American citizens. But we need the CBO and Washington to stop playing politics with crucial information.

Matt Eagan is Director of Federal Affairs at the Texas Public Policy Foundation.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

(Image credit: Screen Capture/PBS NewsHour)