ANC needs ‘De Klerk moment’, abandon bankrupt ideology and kick-start economy

In a stark warning, the ANC’s David Makhura warns that South Africa is on the brink of revolution if the GNU fails. But while the government is pushing for investment under the guise of patriotism, underlying problems persist: oppressive labour laws, economic restrictions and widespread crime. Without significant policy changes, these factors spell a looming socio-economic crisis. Drawing parallels with the decline of apartheid, the current trajectory reflects an uncertain future that necessitates radical reforms for real transformation.

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By RW Johnson

David Makhura, the ANC’s head of political education, has warned the business community that if the GNU fails, “South Africa is on the road to revolution”. “If the GNU fails, we’re all done for,” he said. ___STEADY_PAYWALL___ This unusually candid assessment, however, was only the prelude to the usual ANC demand that business invest – with investment being seen as a moral obligation that businessmen must carry out in a spirit of patriotism. This is, of course, absurd. Businesses invest when they see a reasonable prospect of making a profit and if they stop behaving in that way, they will quickly go bankrupt.

We’ve been here before. The government brings together the social partners, tries to get the unions to make some meaningless declaration of goodwill, promises that in the future it will try to provide reliable electricity and transport – and then demands that the business community invests massively. This never works, not only because investment doesn’t work that way, but also because the unions’ promises are worthless and the government is supposed to guarantee electricity and public transport as part of its basic task. You really should have expected the government to have looked at other well-functioning economies by now – South Korea, Japan, Germany or even China – and realised that none of them are running on national dialogues, swearing social agreements etc.

It is good to see a senior ANC figure like Mr Makhura admit that his party has brought the country to the brink of the abyss, but what of his talk of revolution? There is no one in sight, no real revolutionaries, and not even a clue as to what kind of revolution he means. What can be said is that the steady decline in per capita income, the ever-increasing toll of unemployment and the abject poverty of more and more people mean that widespread social collapse is indeed imminent. A murder rate of 75 deaths a day, rampant criminality, rampant corruption and beggars everywhere are all evidence that this collapse is already happening. But sooner or later, if we continue as we are, there will indeed be a real social explosion, one that could well dwarf the riots of 2021.

And the important thing to understand is that the GNU has not in any way changed the course of the government. The ANC has carefully held all the economic portfolios and the simple assumption is that all the established ANC policies – the illiberal labour laws, BEE, NHI, racial quotas in employment, the Mining Charter, almost certainly prescribed assets and so on – will continue as before. Yet these are precisely the laws that are preventing investment and economic growth, that have given South Africa the highest unemployment rate in the world and that will only increase unemployment and poverty. At present the government is happily talking as if the GNU plus a more reliable electricity supply alone will boost economic growth to 5%. This is nonsense.

It is always wise to compare the ANC with its predecessor, the National Party. The National Party built a mighty edifice of apartheid laws. It was not just a matter of passing laws and posting ‘Slegs Blankes’ notices on park benches. There were laws that reformed the whole country in terms of the Black Homelands Policy and the Group Areas Act. Laws that banned not just interracial marriage but even interracial sex. Laws that banned people, imposed house arrest, banned books and films, laws for 90 days, then 180 days, then indefinite detention. Separate universities, reserved jobs, segregated sports, the prevention of multiracial political parties, racially based conscription, and so on. In the 60s, 70s and 80s, those of us who opposed that terrible system could not help but shudder at its immensity. It encompassed the whole of life, so much so that the idea of ​​a free multiracial society seemed a mythical impossibility. After all, to achieve this, we must dismantle this vast edifice of apartheid laws and practices.

But in the late 1980s the system began to collapse. Universities became multiracial, more and more mixed-race couples lived happily together, despite the Group Areas Act – and then came 1990. Within a few months, De Klerk had repealed most of the apartheid laws, and the few that remained were repealed soon after. After all those years under the looming shadow of the apartheid building, it was all over remarkably quickly. I soon discovered that black teenagers had little idea of ​​what apartheid was.

We may well be heading for a second bonfire of the vanities. If the ANC maintains all its current laws, there is nothing more certain than that poverty, inequality and unemployment will increase. And when even nice, reasonable men like Mr Makhura call for more investment, they assume that the government will not withdraw any of its immensely destructive legislation. What they really mean is that the business community must compensate for the shortcomings of the unions and the government by pouring lots of money into the problem. This is a foolish and empty hope that only shows that ANC people somehow fail to understand that the problem lies with themselves and their policies.

Of course, business is encouraged by the existence of the GNU and by the more cooperative attitude that is visible at government level. So the atmosphere is better. Good. But that is not nearly enough. What we need is the equivalent of De Klerk’s speech of 2 February 1990, when he made it clear that he would repeal the apartheid laws, welcome the exiles and negotiate a new democratic constitution. Translated into today’s terms, Ramaphosa would have to announce the repeal of all race-based laws and all restrictive labour laws and in their place embrace a completely free, non-racial society. The bravery of De Klerk’s speech was that he accepted the brutal fact that all government policies for two generations and more had been completely wrong and misguided. Sooner or later the ANC will have to accept a similar mea culpa.

But that is not going to happen now. At best, we are now at about the same level in ANC terms as PW Botha reached at the Rubicon in 1985. Our GNU is in that sense comparable to the launch of the tricameral parliament. It is a sign of real change, but not nearly enough. But beneath the tectonic plates, the plates are already shifting. The avalanche of change that occurred in 1948 and then again in 1990 suggests that if we remain true to our historical rhythms, change will come very quickly.

Looking back at the apartheid example, you realise that the gradual loss of credibility of the system was a key factor. It became clear that the black homeland policy was not going to work, that more and more people were ignoring the Group Areas Act and that the rest of the world was moving on, leaving South Africa increasingly isolated. We are in the same situation now. The government has just pushed through the Employment Equity Amendment Act, which sets sector-by-sector employment targets for companies with racial quotas at every level. The sheer absurdity of trying to impose this straitjacket on a multinational willing to invest in South Africa is quite obvious. In the midst of the highest unemployment in the world, the government is pushing through a law that will drive jobs away.

No other country in Africa has laws like these; indeed, no other country in the world has them. This is a fair measure of how far the ANC has emulated its nationalist predecessor, for apartheid South Africa was also unique in the world.

Meanwhile, neighbouring Botswana – once the poorest country in the world – now has a significantly higher per capita income than South Africa. Namibia will soon overtake South Africa in per capita income. And Mauritius is now 60% better off than South Africa in per capita income. In election after election, the ANC promises “a better life for all” and yet social inequality and poverty continue to rise well above apartheid levels. This is utterly unsustainable. So while we may be pleased for the moment with the lukewarm and largely atmospheric changes brought about by the GNU, a deluge is on the horizon.

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