The West Bank is the next feared flashpoint

Iranian arms smuggling to terrorists, an angry Palestinian population, marauding extremist settlers and a useless Israeli government make for a toxic brew

Although a full-scale uprising has been stopped so far, the West Bank is seething with rage. Since October 7, more than 650 Palestinians have been killed in airstrikes and raids (according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) and nearly 5,000 have been arrested, nearly half of whom are known to be Hamas affiliates.

Settlers have also rampaged in the West Bank, which the Israeli government—dependent as it is on their far-right political patrons—has brazenly fought to eradicate. Shin Bet leader Ronen Bar specifically singled out the settler actions—which last week resulted in a Palestinian death in the village of Jit—as causing “indescribable” damage.

Palestinians in the West Bank are also on the brink of economic ruin. The more than 100,000 Palestinians with permits to work in Israel have largely been unable to do so since the Hamas attacks, when Israel indefinitely froze most permits. Under extremist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Israel has also withheld millions in funding for the beleaguered Palestinian Authority, creating further desperation in the occupied territory.

With ceasefire negotiations seemingly collapsing and tensions with Iran rising following the July assassination (attributed to Israel) of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, there are growing fears that the lid could come off. In a series of reports and briefings in recent days, Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet officials have warned that an explosion could be imminent.

This week’s IDF operation appears to be a response to a recent suicide bombing attempt in Tel Aviv, which the Israeli military believes was orchestrated by a terror network based in Tulkarm in the West Bank. But it could also be related to unfinished business with Iran, which has threatened direct retaliation against Israel since Haniyeh’s July 31 killing.

Israeli security officials have been warning for weeks that Iran is now trying to smuggle weapons into the West Bank. According to The New York Times This week, Iran is sending the munitions through a complex network of militants, intelligence agencies and criminal gangs. The report, citing anonymous U.S., Israeli and Iranian officials, said the weapons are being transported along a route that spans Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, with Bedouin smugglers playing a major role in moving the weapons to Israel.

Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz echoed those concerns in a tweet this week, saying: “Iran is working to establish a terror front against Israel in (the West Bank), following the model it used in Lebanon and Gaza, by financing and arming terrorists and smuggling advanced weapons from Jordan,” he tweeted.

He also proposed temporarily relocating Palestinians in the West Bank during incursions – as was done in Gaza during the war there: “We must deal with the (terror) threat in exactly the same way we deal with the terror infrastructure in Gaza, including the temporary evacuation of Palestinian civilians and all other necessary steps.”

It is a dangerous idea, because it would treat the West Bank the same way Israel treats the people of Gaza – some of whom have been forced to flee Israeli bombardments seven or eight times – and that could spark a wider conflict; exactly what Israel should not want, and what Hamas does.

It wouldn’t be the first time that Katz, who is not known for his Solomonic wisdom, has helped Israel’s enemies. On October 13, he wrote on the social platform X: “We will fight and destroy the terrorist organization Hamas. The entire civilian population in Gaza is ordered to leave immediately. We will win. They will not be given a drop of water or a single battery until they leave the world.”

That statement was a key piece of evidence in South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel for genocide at the International Court of Justice. The case is still ongoing and the Court will also take into account Israel’s actions in the West Bank.

Whatever happens on the ground in Jenin and Tulkarm now will not change the fundamental situation: the West Bank territory, which Israel captured in the 1967 war, has 3 million Palestinians. The territory has strategic and historical value for Israel, and it is an important place for religious Jews. But if Israel does not find a way to eventually break away from its 3 million Palestinians, there will be no Jewish state.

(A version of this story appeared in The Forward)

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