Venezuela: Civil uprising may be the only solution against Maduro regime – OpEd

Two Spanish-language media outlets interviewed me. In those interviews I indicated that I see no other solution to the Venezuelan crisis than a civil war. Neither interview was published because it was probably considered inflammatory.

However, I was not inciting violence. I came to an inevitable conclusion.

Several facts led me to this conclusion.

Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro announced early in the process that he did not intend to give up power. He disqualified Maria Corina Machado from running after she received overwhelming support in the opposition primaries.

Maduro also blocked the presence of international observers in Venezuela. He also denied access to a plane carrying former Latin American presidents and leaders.

In contrast, Maduro’s government, like Putin during the Russian presidential election, brought in international observers from more than 100 countries. These pseudo-observers were militants sympathetic to his regime, whose function was to certify a false election result that would give the government a victory. Among these “observers” were the Argentine Fernando Esteche, leader of the pro-Iranian group “Quebracho”, María Teresa Pérez, spokesperson for the extremist left-wing Spanish party “Podemos”, Rodrigo Londoño (Timochenko), a former commander in chief of the rebel group Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Ernesto Samper, a former Colombian president accused of receiving funding from drug cartels, and dozens of other militants from Latin America and Spain.

Those who believed in the process were painfully disappointed.

So, just like in Ukraine in 2004, Venezuelan citizens who felt betrayed took to the streets to protest. So far, the regime has killed twenty-four people and arrested more than 1,400. Some people are missing and their fate is unknown. The Venezuelan regime is known for carrying out “enforced disappearances”, a method used by military dictatorships in the Southern Cone in the 1970s and 1980s.

Meanwhile, members of the Organization of American States (OAS) split over a resolution calling for the publication of evidence of election results and an end to the persecution of opponents. Seventeen member states voted in favor of the resolution, 11 abstained, and five other countries did not send a representative to the meeting. Brazil and Colombia abstained, while Mexico sent no representatives. Mexican President Andres Lopez Obrador is a strong advocate of non-intervention in the internal affairs of sovereign countries, and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” Da Silva is an apologist and supporter of the Venezuelan dictatorship. To add cynicism to such an outrageous stance, Lula claimed that the Maduro regime “has an unpleasant authoritarian bias, but it is not a dictatorship.”

Yet the brave secretary of the OAS is trying to obtain an arrest warrant for Maduro from the International Criminal Court.

To be realistic, even if the OAS were to get 18 votes to approve the resolution on Venezuela, the countries have little power to enforce anything practically. Even if the United States were to exert maximum economic pressure through sanctions, a totalitarian entity like the current Venezuelan government would do everything in its power to stay in power, even if it means sacrificing its people. It is enough to look at the Cuban and Iranian regimes, both of which are allies and models for Maduro. Moreover, governments of countries like China, Russia and Turkey will provide Maduro with all the help he needs to survive.

The military has been politicized and co-opted into the regime’s criminal machine. Its leaders have been bought off and dissidents have been purged. The government has given the military control over key national resources such as mining, oil, food distribution, and customs. The “alliance between the people and the military” has become an alliance between the military and the regime. A scenario in which the military leaves the government is unlikely, especially when the regime’s spying machine is keeping a close eye on them.

In her recent book How Civil Wars Start , political scientist Barbara Walter argues that after all nonviolent means fail, the most extreme elements take over and resort to violence. I would argue that in the case of Venezuela, the non-extremist elements also have no choice but to resort to violence.

At this point I believe that if Venezuelans no longer want to live as slaves for the rest of their lives, they will likely resort to violence. If an uprising breaks out, the United States and other powers in the free world must ensure that it succeeds.