On his way out, AMLO unleashes a wrecking ball on Mexico’s institutions

The future of democracy and the investment climate in Mexico are currently in jeopardy. Lame-duck President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (commonly known as AMLO) has a very clear roadmap to finish his term in the National Palace. He wants to consolidate his party’s parliamentary supermajority, reform the judiciary and abolish all checks and balances.

In short, he wants to eradicate democracy in Mexico by installing a totalitarian regime, following the example of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

First, through pressure and persuasion, AMLO has managed to secure more than 73 percent of the seats in the lower house by creating new artificial seats in the legislature. He is also attempting to undermine the independence of the judiciary by instituting the election of all judges by popular vote.

The Mexican government has claimed that these reforms would create a truly independent judiciary and strengthen democracy. In practice, they would do the opposite, while also lowering professional standards and creating vulnerabilities for political, economic and criminal organizations in a country where drug cartels remain shockingly powerful.

Bank of America believes the next 90 days, before AMLO steps down and is replaced by his chosen successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, will set the tone for Mexico’s next 10 years. The report noted that AMLO’s reforms pose a high risk, erode the character of Mexico’s democracy and will increase market volatility.

Morgan Stanley also issued an underweight warning on Mexican stocks due to concerns about judicial reforms in particular. These changes could also increase uncertainty about the outlook for capital spending due to bottlenecks in nearshoring capacity.

In short, the Cuban model is taking hold in Mexico, where a one-party state is everything and no constitutional guarantee is worth anything. According to Article 94 of the Cuban Constitution, “Everyone, as a guarantee of his or her legal security, shall enjoy a fair trial in both the judicial and administrative spheres.” In practice, the supreme interest of the revolution tramples on all human rights.

In Venezuela, the Supreme Court acts as a branch of the Bolivarian regime. This is the court that validated the electoral fraud of Nicolás Maduro and declared his self-declared victory indisputable and unassailable. The United Nations has made it clear that the rulings of this institution are neither impartial nor credible.

In Nicaragua, the Supreme Court has been reduced to a dependency on the party and family of dictator Daniel Ortega. Legal certainty has long since disappeared. Confiscation of private property is the order of the day, despite the fact that it is prohibited by the Nicaraguan Constitution.

AMLO’S plan seemed to be moving at full speed, but a few days ago the Biden administration broke its long-standing silence and warned of the grave risks posed by these changes to the judiciary.

U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar said direct elections of judges pose a grave risk to the functioning of Mexico’s democracy. “Any judicial reform should have the right kind of safeguards that ensure that the judiciary is strengthened and not subject to political corruption.” He also noted that the reform would threaten the historic trade relationship between Mexico and the U.S.

Senate Democrats and Republicans issued a joint statement. Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Ranking Member Jim Risch (R-Idaho), along with Senators Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), issued a statement expressing deep concern over proposed constitutional reforms in Mexico that would undermine the independence of the judiciary and risk violating the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

“We strongly urge the Lopez Obrador government, and also the new Sheinbaum government, to implement only reforms that improve professional qualifications, combat corruption, protect judicial autonomy and strengthen investor confidence.”

Mexico is on the wrong path. In regimes based on absolute power, the first casualty of judicial reform is legal certainty; the second is foreign investment; the third is the sacred right to private property.

In this model, it doesn’t matter how much you know about the law, but who you know. In this scheme, everything would be solved like banana dictatorships.

Mexico, the US’s largest trading partner and one of the world’s 12 largest economies, deserves better: strong, robust, and reliable institutions that provide legal certainty and economic predictability. Business needs this, and democracy needs it even more.

Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the OAS, and former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps.