The case for a strong North American alliance grows stronger

Democracies are under threat around the world, from Ukraine to the Taiwan Strait. It is easy, therefore, to take for granted the stability, strength, and durability of North American democracies. Despite bumps and bruises, populism and partisanship, democracy has endured for 200 years in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Over the past decade, that democratic stability has evolved into deep and robust economic integration, fueling growth across the trading bloc while enhancing our mutual economic security. In an era when hostile authoritarian regimes like China and Russia increasingly seek to use economic coercion to undermine the national security of democracies, it is essential that we rely on that economic strength and security more than ever.

Under NAFTA and its successor, the USMCA, North America has created the world’s strongest democratic trading bloc, surpassing Mexico and Canada as the U.S.’s top trading partner—a welcome development. Together, the United States, Mexico, and Canada conduct $1.5 trillion in bilateral trade annually, accounting for more than a quarter of U.S. imports and exports. With USMCA up for review in 2026, all three countries should take steps now to ensure a smooth process, remove obstacles, and build the institutional, business, and government architecture that will take North American integration from politically delicate to economically unassailable.

With a new administration in Mexico taking office in October and a new administration in the United States in November, there is an opportunity to move away from old dynamics and tensions and reinvigorate broad cooperation on both sides of the border and with Canada. The list of issues that must be addressed is long but critical: Chinese overcapacity and dumping; transnational crime and fentanyl trafficking; opacity and shell companies that shield hostile and illicit activities; and insufficient attention to corruption, sanctions evasion, and money laundering. The future of the trading bloc and the security of our democracies will depend on how we address these challenges.

Perhaps most importantly, North America needs to develop consensus on the threats posed by authoritarian regimes like China, which are expanding their influence, economic involvement, and intelligence gathering across the region. It is essential that Mexico, the U.S., and Canada present a united front against Chinese economic pressure: dumping cheap goods that undermine local manufacturing, intellectual property theft, sanctions evasion, enabling rogue states, and risks of Chinese monopolization of key sectors such as critical minerals, communications, infrastructure, and essential manufacturing. North America’s vibrant open market system is vulnerable to Chinese price manipulation and suppression of domestic industries, something all three economies must work to address. The national and economic security concerns posed by China’s surveillance apparatus (and aspirations) must also be meaningfully addressed by all three countries, each of which has deployed ad hoc whack-a-mole strategies against prominent companies like Huawei or TikTok while leaving massive vulnerabilities intact.

North America is already economically co-dependent and interconnected in valuable ways, enhancing the stability and economic security of all three countries – something that is especially important in today’s unpredictable geopolitical environment. Mexico is a hub for complex co-production efforts in key industries such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and defense. Mexico’s potential as a trusted ally-shoring destination for critical supply chains that hostile countries like China want to avoid or leave cannot be overstated.

The global reshaping of critical supply chains in the wake of Covid-era vulnerabilities, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Chinese Communist Party’s economic coercion present Mexico and President-elect Sheinbaum with a unique opportunity to cement its role as a major manufacturing hub, creating growth and prosperity that can boost Mexican manufacturing up the value chain while reducing immigration pressure at the U.S. southern border.

An economically stronger Mexico is also good for the U.S. – economically, in terms of cheaper products, lower inflation, and production synergies, but also from a national security perspective. While Americans worry about migrants at the southern border, we often forget that Mexico is to some extent has become the border. Since Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas traveled to Mexico City to meet with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in December 2023, the Mexican government has dramatically increased its migrant apprehensions. Before the meeting, Mexico was apprehending nearly 100,000 migrants per month. Starting in January 2024, Mexico began apprehending nearly 125,000 per month. As a result, the number of land border encounters at the U.S. southwest border dropped from a peak of about 300,000 in December 2023 to 130,000 in June 2024.

Enhanced U.S.-Mexico cooperation on immigration, border technology, cartel violence, and drug trafficking will further enhance our mutual national security and stabilize the conditions that lead to excessive migration. It is especially important to develop an aggressive joint strategy on fentanyl to address money laundering and the Chinese chemical precursors that fuel the trade and cost American lives. Failure to address these issues now will derail the 2026 USMCA review.

Our democratic security will also be enhanced by contributing tools to strengthen the alliance’s economic integration. For example, the trading bloc would do well to implement a next generation of “trusted trader” programs, where key suppliers can open themselves and their shipments to customs and law enforcement with full transparency in exchange for expedited processing at the border, special access points and lanes on bridges, and streamlined bureaucracy. Investing more in border facilitation technology and trade security will also promote the secure border needed to address immigration challenges. Strengthening rules of origin and developing consistent most favored nation tariffs could also be addressed now without waiting for USMCA review. North America could also make better use of existing capabilities under USMCA, such as developing standalone customs unions to promote integration in particularly critical sectors.

Democracy and strong economic conditions reinforce each other. One of the most important ways to protect democracy in North America and roll back authoritarian coercion is to strengthen an economic alliance that supports the rules-based order that allows the private sector and democratic institutions to thrive. The USCMA and deep economic integration are key to this. Simply put, the U.S. will be more effective in countering threats to democracy by aligning with our North American trading partners.

The USMCA has brought enormous economic benefits to North America. It is also a blueprint for greater integration and economic security for decades to come. North America is strong – but now is the time to make it stronger.

Elaine Dezenski is Senior Director and Head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, an independent, nonpartisan foreign policy think tank. She previously served as Deputy and Acting Assistant Secretary for Policy at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

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