Why is drug-related violence spreading to Germany?

In early July 2024, a local drug dealer filmed himself in a rented, empty warehouse in Germany, showing off his half-ton stash of cannabis during a livestream, broadcasting his haul—entrusted to him by a Dutch criminal network—to an online audience. Later that night, while the dealer was partying, 300 kilos of that cannabis went missing, reportedly stolen by one of his online viewers.

The cannabis theft unleashed an unprecedented wave of violence in Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia region, attributed to the so-called ‘Mocro’ mafia – a notorious criminal ecosystem most commonly associated with the Netherlands. Since then, at least six improvised explosive devices have been detonated in the region, with one incident resulting in the death of a 17-year-old Dutchman in a botched attempt to blow up a restaurant. The fallout from the stolen cannabis has also led to the kidnapping and torture of a member of another major criminal network, with Dutch criminals offering a substantial reward for the thieves. A Bonn police officer has been arrested on suspicion of collaborating with the Dutch criminal network behind the attacks.

The German public could hardly believe that all these incidents had occurred in the space of just a few weeks. Until recently, Germans had watched with some astonishment as organized crime unfolded in neighboring countries—shootings, targeted killings of journalists and witnesses, the violent liberation of prisoners, and hundreds of explosive attacks. Despite Germany’s proximity to countries that have been hit by escalating violence, such as the Netherlands, Belgium, and France, such levels of crime seemed a distant prospect. By 2023, however, the Global Organized Crime Index had pointed to rising crime levels and declining resilience in Germany, a trend that now seems demonstrably confirmed by incidents like this.

While a dramatic increase in cocaine seizures, the infiltration of port infrastructure and large-scale art thefts have raised alarm bells in Germany in recent times, violent incidents have often been isolated and limited in scale. Recent developments, however, suggest that the country is not immune to the spillover effects of escalating criminal dynamics.

The ‘Mocro’ mafia

The illegal drug market in Germany is highly diversified and competitive. Criminal ecosystems in major German cities are dominated by a mix of networks – German, Russian-Eurasian, Turkish, Balkan, Arab, Kurdish and Italian, to name a few. These groups control different segments of the retail and wholesale markets and influence different supply chains and regions within the country.

One of these networks is the so-called ‘Mocro’ mafia, a major player in the smuggling of cocaine worth more than €10 billion per year into ports in the Netherlands and Belgium, mainly from Latin America. Its origins can be traced back to the 1960s, a period marked by significant Moroccan immigration to the Netherlands. However, the Mocro mafia encompasses a wide range of criminal networks with members from different ethnic backgrounds. With the specific Dutch mix of legal cannabis sales and an illegal wholesale market, local criminal networks of the Mocro mafia profited greatly from supplying the coffee shop business, growing in size and power.

Today, these networks have expanded their reach beyond the Netherlands, building a significant presence in the European cocaine industry. They have become notorious for their willingness to use violence against anyone who stands in their way. Their violent reputation has largely been built around the high-profile murders in the Netherlands of lawyer Derk van Wiersum in 2019 and crime reporter Peter R. de Vries in 2021. Even the former Dutch prime minister faced increased security measures in 2022 due to threats from organized crime.

As the Mocro Mafia expands its influence across Europe, Germany is becoming an increasingly important hub for its growing cocaine trade. The country’s central location in Europe, combined with its excellent infrastructure, makes it an ideal hub for European criminal activity. The recent decline in cocaine seizures in the ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam could be an early sign of a shift in the focus of organised crime in north-western Europe.

What now?

Given the diversity of organized crime networks in Germany and the complexity of criminal ecosystems, there is a significant risk that competition between criminal groups will increase violence in Germany. The decryption of Encrochat and SkyECC revealed that drug cartels in particular are often better armed than other criminal groups. These groups are more likely to use weapons to settle turf wars, intimidate rivals, and punish those who defect.

Meanwhile, European drug markets are being shaken by changing power dynamics and emerging trends. These include the potential diversion of cocaine routes in Europe, potential heroin shortages following the Taliban’s second opium ban, the disruption of the northern heroin route by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the rise of psychoactive substances such as synthetic cathinones. In addition, the slow but steady influx of synthetic opioids and the legalization of non-commercial cannabis in some countries are creating new criminal opportunities.

Some have speculated that the recent violent incidents in West Germany are related to the legalization of cannabis in Germany. However, there is no scientific evidence to establish a causal link and it is far-fetched.

However, as European drug markets evolve and supply patterns change, an increase in criminal violence is a likely scenario. While many countries may opt for a tough approach to organised crime – a strategy already evident in Germany – focusing on individual criminal networks, such as the Mocro Mafia, is unlikely to achieve lasting success. Such strategies often overestimate the relevance of some groups and create power vacuums that other groups can exploit, potentially leading to escalation of violence.

Strengthening criminal investigations into organized crime groups, rather than prosecuting members for individual offenses, is a major challenge, but a promising way to build resilience against the growing threat of criminal violence. Furthermore, implementing the second pillar of cannabis legalization in Germany – testing a legal cannabis supply chain alongside home cultivation and cannabis clubs – is necessary to avoid inadvertently creating an economic incentive scheme for organized crime.

Examples from other countries and regions show that independent research by civil society organisations is crucial to complement official data on organised crime and to better understand criminal dynamics beyond the daily headlines. This is particularly true for the rapid development of the drug market in Europe. Compared to other countries such as Italy, responses from civil society organisations in Germany are limited and there is little independent research on organised crime dynamics. The recent spillover of criminal violence to Germany is part of a larger trend – one that requires continued monitoring and analysis to better anticipate such developments.