NEW SURVEY: WI, PA, & MI Voters Believe U.S. Is Too Involved in Foreign Wars and World Affairs, Most Fear WWIII Is Approaching

Emily Ekins

A new Cato Institute poll of 1,500 Americans, conducted by YouGov in the crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, reveals exhaustion with the current direction of U.S. foreign policy. Majorities say the U.S. is “too involved” in world affairs and global conflicts (WI: 53%, PA: 50%, MI: 52%); majorities say U.S. foreign policy does not put American interests first (WI: 62%, PA: 61%, MI: 60%); and majorities think it is likely the U.S. is “coming close” to World War III (WI: 59%, PA: 51%, MI: 54%).

The poll shows a particularly close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin (51% to 46%), Trump slightly ahead of Harris in Michigan (48% to 47%) and the two candidates tied in Pennsylvania with each at 47% among likely voters. Adjusting for margins of error, the candidates are statistically tied in all three states.

With such small margins, public opinion on foreign policy could sway the election outcome. Small majorities of likely voters in these three swing states say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who disagrees with them on foreign policy (WI: 52%, PA: 50%, MI: 52%).

Strikingly, the survey found that voters trust Trump more than Harris to handle foreign policy, by a 4 percentage point margin in every state. They believe Trump is more likely to keep Americans out of foreign wars and conflicts (WI: 52%, PA: 51%, MI: 52%), to help end the war in Ukraine (WI: 51%, PA: 50%, MI: 54%) and to make foreign policy based on putting American interests first (WI: 51%, PA: 54%, MI: 56%).

But these Rust Belt swing state voters also think Trump is more likely than Harris to get the US into World War III (WI: 51%, PA: 51%, MI: 53%).

How can voters like Trump’s foreign policy but then worry that he could start a world war? Voters can distinguish between what a candidate says about policy and how they perceive that candidate’s judgment and impulsiveness.

American leadership in the world

Majorities of voters in these swing states want the U.S. to play a “shared” leadership role in the world and global affairs (WI: 57%, PA: 53%, MI: 58%) rather than a dominant leadership role (WI: 38%, PA: 41%, MI: 32%). Few voters want the U.S. to play no leadership role at all (WI: 5%, PA: 6%, MI: 10%).

Interestingly, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say that the U.S. is too involved in global affairs, but they are also much more likely than Democrats to say that the U.S. should play the “dominant” leadership role in global affairs.

Europe

Majorities of swing state voters believe the war in Ukraine is important to U.S. national security (WI: 65%, PA: 70%, MI: 71%). Majorities also believe the country’s relationship with Ukraine strengthens the United States (WI: 43%, PA: 37%, MI: 40%). However, they are divided over the U.S. handling of the war (WI: 39%, PA: 41%, MI: 40% approve) and sending money and weapons to Ukraine (WI: 49%, PA: 45%, MI: 44% favor). After learning that the U.S. sent Ukraine $170 billion in military aid and equipment, voters are more reluctant to send more. Instead, most want to reduce or stop the amount of aid sent in the future (WI: 50%, PA: 54%, MI: 57%).

Most believe the war in Ukraine will lead to a broader war in Europe (WI: 59%, PA: 54%, MI: 63%), but most in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania think it is unlikely to involve the United States (WI: 52%, PA: 55%). In Michigan, slightly more think the United States could get involved (53%). Nevertheless, Americans would oppose sending money and weapons to Ukraine if it risked getting the U.S. into war.

NATO

Voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have a solidly positive opinion of NATO (WI: 60%, PA: 56%, MI: 55%). And only a few Americans want to leave the organization (WI: 15%, PA: 13%, MI: 15%). Notably, nearly half of voters say the U.S. should not continue to defend NATO members that do not adhere to NATO’s 2% GDP defense spending rule (WI: 44%, PA: 52%, MI: 47%).

Voters in swing states are more likely to agree that the US should remain in NATO because US involvement is essential for peace and stability in Europe (WI: 71%, PA: 74%, MI: 70%) than they are to agree that the US should withdraw from NATO because Europeans benefit from US defense (WI: 29%, PA: 26%, MI: 30%).

Middle East

Majorities of these swing state voters believe that U.S. involvement in the Middle East has done more to worsen America’s national security (WI: 47%, PA: 50%, MI: 49%). In fact, 8 in 10 swing state voters believe the U.S. cannot solve the conflicts in the region even if it were to commit more money, soldiers, and resources.

War between Israel and Hamas

Eight in 10 voters in swing states say the way Hamas carried out its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel was unacceptable. Voters, however, are divided over the way Israel has responded. Eight in 10 voters in swing states favor an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

Seven-in-ten believe the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is important for national security, and most believe the war could lead to a broader war in the Middle East (WI: 73%, PA: 77%, MI: 73%). If a broader war were to break out, these voters would support sending military aid and equipment to Israel (WI: 51%, PA: 50%, MI: 44%), but not go to war itself (WI: 53%, PA: 49%, MI: 48% against).

Asia

Majorities of voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania say U.S. lawmakers pay too little attention to competition with China (WI: 54%, PA: 54%, MI: 62%). While few voters are “very familiar” with China-Taiwan tensions (WI: 24%, PA: 25%, MI: 21%), most say it is important to U.S. national security (WI: 62%, PA: 65%, MI: 63%). If China were to ban Taiwan from trading with other countries, about a quarter would want the U.S. to stay out of it, two-thirds would want sanctions, and a fifth would send military aid to Taiwan, with very few supporting sending troops (WI: 2%, PA: 1%, MI: 3%). If China were to invade Taiwan, about a quarter of voters would still not want to get involved, about half would want to impose sanctions, about a third would want to send money and equipment, and only a few would want to go to war (WI: 8%, PA: 8%, MI: 9%).

Mexico

Majorities of swing state voters support using military force to combat drug cartels in Mexico (WI: 55%, PA: 55%, MI: 51%). However, if the Mexican government were opposed to our involvement, majorities would oppose sending U.S. troops to combat drug cartels (WI: 67%, PA: 64%, MI: 63%).

Methodology

The Cato Institute 2024 Foreign Policy Swing State Survey was designed and conducted by the Cato Institute in partnership with YouGov. YouGov collected online responses from Americans in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin from August 15 through August 23, 2024, from samples of 500 in each state. Restrictions are in place to ensure that only those selected and contacted by YouGov participate. The margins of error are WI: +/- 5.07; PA: +/- 4.99; MI: +/- 5.03. Among likely voters, it is WI: +/- 5.92, PA: +/- 5.93, MI: +/- 5.95 at the 95% confidence level

The topline survey and survey methodology can be found here (PDF) (XLS) and cross-tabulations can be found here (XLS). If you would like to speak with Dr. Ekins about the poll results, please contact pr@​cato.​org or call 202–789‑5200.