Tennessee Crime Rates and Policy Debate: A Closer Look

Editor’s Note: Two months ago, we sent out a community survey asking what issues matter most to you this election cycle. This is the second part of our community-focused series.

Despite the curious fact that Americans consistently tell pollsters that crime is rising, crime rates in the United States are significantly lower today than they were in the early 1990s. Even after a historic peak in 2020, the U.S. murder rate has remained well below levels seen decades earlier. And in the years since, most violent crime rates in American cities have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

That’s true in Tennessee, where violent crime has declined in the state’s four largest cities. The most recent data from the Metro Nashville Police Department shows that homicides are down about 7 percent compared to the same period last year, and violent crime overall is down about 4 percent. Of course, aggregate data can conflict with the facts on someone’s street or neighborhood. Violent crime is still occurring, albeit down slightly, and there are other statistics that complicate the picture. Property crime in Nashville, for example, is up slightly.

But while the broad and vague concept of crime is often tossed around in political campaigns, it is often less clear what elected officials will or can do to change it. Criminologists remain uncertain about why violent crime in the U.S. began declining in the 1990s, and crime researchers caution against attributing changes in crime rates to individual government actions.

Perhaps because of the decline in overall rates, few Americans seem to see crime as the most important problem facing the country today. But it remains a major issue in electoral politics.

Brooks and Bobo weigh in on bail and gun safety

In state politics, the recent debate over crime has largely revolved around the provisional release of suspects.

The Tennessee and U.S. constitutions grant someone accused of a crime the right to bail, a sum of which can be used to secure their release from jail while they await trial. But law enforcement officials in cities like Nashville and Memphis have expressed frustration with policies they say are too lenient for supposedly dangerous individuals. In both cities, cases in which a person released on bail allegedly committed another violent crime have drawn media attention and been cited by lawmakers pushing for tougher rules. At the same time, criminal justice advocates have spent years highlighting how bail policies effectively discriminate against poor people and trample on the presumption of innocence.

The issue was at the center of criminal justice debates in the Legislature earlier this year, and it’s not going away. In April, state lawmakers passed a bill that would prohibit judges from considering a criminal defendant’s ability to pay when setting bail. That new law has since prompted a lawsuit by Just City and the American Civil Liberties Union of Tennessee, which argues that the law paves the way for unconstitutional wealth-based incarceration.

Another piece of legislation filed by lawmakers this year sets the stage for more debate when the Legislature reconvenes next spring and potentially a statewide referendum in 2026. The proposed amendment to the state constitution — pushed by state Republican leaders, including House Speaker Cameron Sexton — would allow judges to deny bail in more cases. Current law allows judges to deny bail for defendants charged with first-degree murder, but the amendment would add other alleged violent crimes, including terrorism, first-degree rape of a child and first-degree rape. After clearing a majority of lawmakers earlier this year — including votes from some Democrats — the proposed amendment would need to be passed again in 2025 before hitting the ballot in 2026. Whoever wins a seat in the General Assembly after this fall’s elections will have a say in the matter.

The race for a vacant seat in House District 60 — an area that includes Donelson, Hermitage and Old Hickory — is likely to be one of the tightest contests of the election season. Chad Bobo, a former Sexton aide who is running to win back the seat for the Republicans, told the Banner that he supports the effort to tighten bail policies. Asked about the proposed constitutional amendment, he said he supports “keeping criminals off the streets as long as possible.”

Another crime-related issue that will surely inflame the race is guns. Bobo’s opponent is Shaundelle Brooks, a gun control advocate who became a fixture in the Legislature after her son, Akilah Dasilva, was killed in the 2018 Antioch Waffle House shooting. After Brooks won the Democratic primary last month, Democratic state Rep. Justin Jones — one of two Democratic lawmakers expelled from the chamber last year after leading an anti-gun control protest on the House floor — claimed Brooks was part of a small progressive caucus. While passing stricter gun regulations is a long shot given the makeup of Tennessee’s current Legislature, Brooks would certainly be one of the loudest voices on the issue if elected. She has cited passing red flag laws and safe storage requirements, as well as repealing Tennessee’s open carry laws, as policy goals.

Asked what he’s heard from constituents about crime, Bobo said a common topic of conversation is car break-ins and theft. While the number is down nearly 30 percent, MNPD reported last week that 604 guns have been stolen from vehicles in the city so far this year — about two a day. But Bobo opposes policies that would reduce the ubiquity of guns in the state. While he acknowledged that leaving your car doors unlocked isn’t “the best idea,” he said he opposes policies that would create requirements or penalties for people who, for example, leave a gun in their unlocked car. Instead, he said, lawmakers and law enforcement should focus on catching and punishing the thieves, not the behavior of legal gun owners.

“I don’t want innocent people to be harmed by the illegal use of weapons,” he told the Banner“That said…I will never consider taking away their rights to defend their families.”

In her response to a candidate survey by the BannerBrooks said she supports a secure storage law as a way to reduce the number of guns stolen from cars. In a study published earlier this year, researchers found that stolen guns were used in crimes nearly nine times more often than other firearms. In her response, Brooks also highlighted the unintentional shootings and youth suicides that can result from children having access to unsecured guns.

“This bill would not only address the alarming rate of gun theft from vehicles, it would also protect our youth from preventable tragedies,” she said. “Ensuring responsible gun ownership includes properly storing weapons, and it’s time we take action to prevent further harm.”

Here’s how candidates running to represent Tennessee on the national stage propose to reduce crime

As crime rates have fallen, Republican candidates have retreated somewhat from Donald Trump-style rhetoric about “violence and chaos” in Democratic-run cities. In the congressional elections, the focus on crime as an overarching issue has largely been replaced by debates over border policy and gun control.

In the U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Democratic Rep. Gloria Johnson, of Tennessee Three fame, the incumbent has repeated MAGA-style talking points about migrants and violence. Under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, Blackburn recently said on social media, America is being plagued by “surging crime as gangs, terrorists, and violent criminals invade our communities.” The claim is false not only because overall crime rates have been declining in recent years, but also because the data directly contradicts the idea of ​​migrant crime as a phenomenon. While there have been cases of people entering the country illegally and committing violent crimes, the overall picture is that spikes in immigration, illegal or otherwise, have not led to an increase in crime. In fact, federal crime data has shown that cities along the U.S.-Mexico border have lower violent crime rates than comparable cities elsewhere.

But Blackburn has also called attention to another kind of crime, what she calls “an epidemic of juvenile delinquency” in Tennessee. It’s true that in Memphis, for example, even as overall crime has declined, there has been an increase in the number of young people charged with serious crimes. In response, Blackburn has co-sponsored the After School Act with Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. The bill would create a grant program to support after-school programs in counties with high juvenile crime rates.

Johnson has said she will work to advance the gun control measures she supports in the House.

“We want universal background checks, safe storage, and keeping guns out of the hands of dangerous people,” she said in a social media post earlier this month. “I am a gun owner and understand that we can provide protections to keep families safe.”

The battle for the U.S. Senate — between an incumbent MAGA Republican and a hopeless Democrat seeking to curb America’s permissive gun laws — is essentially mirrored in other congressional races. In U.S. House District 5, Republican Rep. Andy Ogles — whose family Christmas card famously depicted him and his children with rifles in hand — faces Maryam Abolfazli, a former chair of Metro’s Human Relations Commission who also made a name for himself advocating for gun safety laws in the state legislature. In U.S. House District 7, Republican Rep. Mark Green, feted by some of Tennessee’s most aggressive gun rights groups, is being challenged by former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, who promises to advocate for safe storage laws and policies that would allow for the temporary removal of a person’s firearms.

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