No Limits to the Lawlessness of Myanmar’s Predatory Military Regime – Analysis

By Zachary Abuza

After Myanmar’s military illegally seized power and overthrew a democratically elected government, they were not expected to abide by the rule of law.

But given the losses the army has suffered since three rebel armies launched Operation 1027 almost a year ago, the military has acted even more desperately and unconscionably.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has published a new report showing that civilian deaths have increased by 50% between April 2023 and June 2024 compared to last year.

In addition to the more than 2,414 civilians killed, the report also lists the deaths of 1,326 people, including 88 children and 125 women, who have died in military custody since the coup in February 2021.

The report documented executions, horrific sexual violence and routine torture. Those who survived government custody described appalling conditions in prisons and military detention facilities.

Now, reports have leaked onto pro-regime Telegram channels that the military government plans to execute five anti-regime activists as early as next week.

That would follow the shocking executions of four of them, including Kyaw Min Yu (Ko Jimmy) and Phyo Zeya Thaw, in July 2022.

At least 112 people have been sentenced to death since the coup. And the regime wants to use the executions to send a message, both to the domestic and international public, that it is still firmly in control, despite the losses on the battlefield.

War crimes are the strategy

The world has become accustomed to the deliberate bombing of civilians, the execution of prisoners of war, and the mass arrests of civilians as a form of collective punishment. More than 27,000 people have been arrested since the coup.

In the first half of 2024 alone, junta forces burned more than 1,050 houses in retaliation in the Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay regions.

Radio Free Asia has reported an intensified aerial bombardment campaign that has led to more civilian casualties.

This should come as no surprise. The military’s counterinsurgency doctrine, known as the “Four Cuts”—cutting off food, funds, information, and recruitment to insurgents—is based on deliberately targeting civilians as a deterrent to providing support to anti-regime forces.

War crimes have been a longstanding strategy of the military. Troops are indoctrinated and encouraged to commit war crimes, including rape.

The army is fighting on six different battlefields and has suffered losses in all of them. It has lost control of 60% of the cities in the northern Shan State alone.

Opposition forces now control key roads and river ports, making it difficult to move and supply troops. The only way the army can retaliate is through airstrikes and long-range artillery strikes.

If they can’t kill the opposition, they will kill the people who support them.

Hunting on your own

The military’s forces have committed such gross human rights violations that it is hard to sympathize with them. But their predatory behavior begins with plundering the livelihoods of their own troops.

Despite their meager salaries, troops are forced to make monthly contributions to the sprawling military conglomerate Myanma Economic Holdings Ltd (MEHL). The amount varies by rank, but everyone must pay.

At the end of the year, MEHL was supposed to pay the troops a dividend. But nothing has been paid since the coup, a result of nationwide boycotts of military-produced products and services.

The military insurance plan is even more outrageous.

Founded in late 2012 by Min Aung Hlaing’s son, Aung Pyae Sone, Aung Myint Moh Insurance company had in 2015 acquired a monopoly on the sale of life insurance to the military, replacing the state-owned Myanma Insurance. It has an unclear degree of military ownership through MEHL.

Even the lowest-ranking soldiers are pressured to sign up for a minimum two-year policy, which costs about 500,000 kyats — $238 at the official, artificially low exchange rate — plus a monthly premium of 8,400 kyats.

Due to recent battlefield losses, including a large number of the five classes of conscripts who have been hastily trained since then, the company has had to pay out more than it takes in.

It is believed that its own capital reserves have remained stable given the poor economic climate and poor investment conditions.

As you might expect from Min Aung Hlaing’s predatory clan, the insurance company is cheating. The company has labeled many dead soldiers as “missing in action.”

In other cases, it has used loopholes in paperwork and non-payment of monthly fees to justify not honoring claims, and has pocketed the payments of an estimated 20,000 troops who defected to the opposition.

The junta is outright stealing from the soldiers they recruit, just to line their own pockets.

A well-armed extortion gang

The army’s appalling criminality is getting worse and worse.

The economic incompetence of the military itself has caused the economy to collapse, and with it a sharp decline in the revenues needed to wage the war.

The opposition National Unity government’s digital Spring Lottery has significantly reduced government lottery revenues. The loss of territory on the battlefield has cut off revenue streams.

Recent losses include four MOGE oil fields, coal, tin, lead and ruby ​​mines. A fierce battle is raging in Hpakantin, northern Kachin State, for control of lucrative jadeite and rare earth mines.

Two hydroelectric dams are now in opposition hands, while others recently fell into the hands of the US military.

While the capture of towns and villages along the Chinese border has led to the closure of many cyber fraud centers and the extradition of thousands of Chinese nationals, the military regime continues to rely on transnational criminal organizations as a source of revenue.

Many have been relocated from Laukkaing to Yangon, while others along the Thai border remain operational and under the control of pro-regime border guards.

With no money, the military has turned to extorting money from local businesses. A once-functioning system for collecting state revenues has turned into an extortion racket.

But unlike taxes, which are paid on a regular basis and provided in exchange for minimal social benefits, military levies are predatory and further undermine economic growth, making capital flight a rational choice for many people in Myanmar.

As the country continues to reel from Typhoon Yagi, the junta continues to block international humanitarian aid, demanding that all donations go through the military itself.

Fearing that aid will go to opposition groups, the military is once again prepared to prevent vital food and medicine from reaching those most in need.

The war crimes are well documented, even if they have not led to international condemnation.

International actors, from China to India to ASEAN, remain convinced that military interests must be respected and that the military deserves a place at the negotiating table in any future government.

As the regime prepares for elections under Chinese pressure as a political showcase, it is absolutely unacceptable for the junta to play a role in the future.

For nearly four years, the military has systematically targeted its own people, committed serious human rights violations, impoverished its citizens, and transformed a once-functioning state into a predatory and thoroughly corrupt criminal syndicate.

• Zachary Abuza is a professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of the U.S. Department of Defense, the National War College, Georgetown University, or Radio Free Asia.