Trump’s mass deportation plan would drive 8.3 million people out of the US workforce: study

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Former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks about immigration and border security near Coronado National Memorial in Montezuma Pass, Arizona, August 22, 2024. (Photo by OLIVIER TOURON/AFP via Getty Images)

Immigration is one of the most important issues for voters heading into the November election. Donald Trump has discussed his position on the issue during his campaign, but a new study finds the former president proposing more extreme immigration restrictions, including removing migrants from the country’s workforce.

In a report by the Peterson Institute for International EconomicsTrump has spoken of carrying out the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” targeting what he says are 15 million to 20 million illegal immigrants in the U.S., about 8.3 million of whom are believed to be in the workforce.

Researchers in the study created a model to compare the effect of Trump’s plan to deport 1.3 million illegal immigrant workers versus 8.3 million illegal immigrant workers on the country’s economy.

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The study notes that the team assumes that the deportations Trump is proposing could occur between 2025 and 2026, with the total number of deportations enforced starting in 2025.

According to the report, the deportation of 1.3 million illegal workers reduces the agricultural labor force by 2.5%. But the impact of deporting all 8.3 million illegal immigrant workers would be greater if the workforce were to shrink, particularly in the agricultural, mining and manufacturing industries.

Trump has proposed in his plan to use local law enforcement, the National Guard and the standing military to carry out this plan, which would involve moving “thousands of troops currently stationed abroad” to the US-Mexico border and the Insurrection Act of 1807 is invoked to allow the military to arrest illegal immigrants.

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According to the study, Trump wants to speed up deportations of unauthorized migrants by changing ICE deportation policies, allowing ICE agents to conduct workplace raids instead of arresting people individually.

Meanwhile, Trump wants to deny due process to unauthorized immigrants and suspected members of drug cartels and criminal gangs. To ease the burden on existing ICE detention facilities, plans to build massive detention facilities along the border to hold migrants while they await deportation.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics notes that Trump’s plan for mass deportation was inspired by “Operation Wetback”– a 1956 campaign under the Eisenhower administration that deported 1.3 million people. The campaign used “military-style tactics” to round up and remove Mexican immigrants from the US