What Tory leadership candidates should learn from the mistakes of Boris Johnson and Silvio Berlusconi

The Conservative Party will elect a new leader, with four candidates still in the running: Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat. They all appeal to a party in desperate need of new leadership and the path forward is far from clear.

Our recent research shows that the candidates can learn a lot from two phenomenally successful party leaders in the coming weeks, but probably more in the way of what not to do.

We looked at Silvio Berlusconi, who was Prime Minister of Italy three times between 1994 and 2011, and Boris Johnson, more briefly Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2019 to 2022. Both were unusual politicians, media executives who dominated with a combination of three Ps: personalization , performance and populism.

As political celebrities, they used and manipulated the media to create endless controversies (much easier for Berlusconi because he owned so much of it). It turned out that their approach paid off in the polls. Berlusconi won three elections and reshaped Italian politics, while Johnson won the largest conservative majority since Margaret Thatcher.

But for all their apparent power and opportunity, Berlusconi and Johnson have achieved little lasting change. Both promised national rejuvenation, whether it was a new Italian miracle or a leveling up. They left office leaving behind a string of broken promises.

The four remaining Conservative candidates each showed signs of the three Ps. With a number of party members, they all tried to appeal to the populist right on immigration and relations with Europe. Badenoch and Jenrick created personalized phone calls, somewhat bizarrely based on references to the working class. With little attention paid to the competition, candidates tried to get involved in the current affairs agenda in the hope of making an impact.

This path could worsen the situation of the conservatives. Johnson and Berlusconi used the media to be spontaneous and prone to blunders, making them appear authentic and protestant. They hung cable cars, insulted minority groups and reveled in the controversy and shock they caused.

Their media obsession has led their governments to engage in an endless series of headline-grabbing stunts. Johnson drove a tractor through a polystyrene wall to show he would deliver Brexit. Berlusconi personally signed a contract with the Italian people on live television, in which he proposed a five-point manifesto, promising that he would resign if he got less than four (reader, he did not achieve them, nor did he resign taken).

The problem was that media spectacle became a substitute for concrete action. Announcements have replaced policy and words have replaced action. This situation was exacerbated by crises, Berlusconi’s Great Crash in 2008 and Johnson’s COVID-19 crisis in 2020. Both events required serious, detail-oriented and determined leaders, the opposite of what Berlusconi and Johnson had to offer.

The Conservative campaign so far has been a rather unconstructive battle for the rest of the party, which is equally strong in positioning and headlines. The familiar right-wing touchstones of the culture wars, immigration and Brexit show that candidates are still competing in the recent elections and not engaging in new politics. They focused on leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) rather than the cost of living.

Badenoch recently said that real politics and real leadership are about taking the lead and getting others to follow, but we’ve done that by strongly voicing our support for Elon Musk, which puts her at odds with both the public and his own party. It’s hard to imagine that his latest comments on maternity leave, which are too generous, could also win him public support.

Are there clean hides in the building?

Personality politics often proves to be a double-edged sword. When a politician takes center stage, he attracts all the attention. But this inevitably means that attention must be paid to every crime and every triumph.

Berlusconi came to power in 1994 amid a series of controversies. It was said that, like Trump in 2024, he was seeking political office mainly to avoid jail time.

The Berlusconis scandals quickly gained momentum, exposing a toxic mix of personal, political and financial irregularities that has long had its own consequences. Wikipedia page with (deep breath) trials and accusations of abuse of power, bribery and corruption of police officers, judges and politicians, conspiracy, defamation, embezzlement, extortion, false accounting, mafia, money laundering, perjury, tax evasion.

Johnson has also sparked a series of controversies in Downing Street, particularly over his personal life and the way he financed his lifestyle, as well as Partygate.

Once in power, questions, investigations and investigations into integrity spread around their mandates and gradually came to dominate them. Their popularity and poll numbers plummeted with each grim revelation, forcing their loyal supporters to distance themselves from the chaos.

It appears the Conservative candidates have not heeded this lesson. Everyone tried to personalize their leadership credentials. This only highlighted scandals, on Jenricks’ part questionable concessions to offensive comments made by Intelligently about sexual violence. It’s not clear that Cleverly’s admission that he talks too much, made as an apology for what he said, is actually a useful trait for a future party leader.

All four candidates have seemingly avoided any reflection on the reasons for the Conservatives’ catastrophic defeat in the July election. There are signs that each of them is waking up to the need to produce a credible and united opposition party by moving towards the centre.

Berlusconi and Johnson assumed much stronger positions than these four, but even they soon discovered that their coalitions of voters outside Parliament and MPs inside were too fragile to hold. More and more concerned partners and supporters lost confidence in both leaders due to their corruption and inaction, while the weak electoral alliances that supported them came under pressure.

Whoever inherits the conservative leadership will have to count on many allies, despite the many rifts that divide the defeated party. Johnson, and then Liz Truss, enjoyed rather superficial support and soon discovered that disaffected parties could be disloyal and quickly rebel.