An interview with Arvid Hallén ━ The European Conservative

Arvid Hallén is program director and co-founder of Oikos, Sweden’s only conservative think tank. A specialist in energy policy, he has worked as an editorial writer, political commentator, asset manager for foundations and chaired the conservative Swedish student organization Heimdal.

A radical left MP has described the opening of the Swedish parliament as an extreme right-wing meeting. For the far left, everything is part of the far right, but has Swedish politics changed significantly since 2022?

That has not changed since the 2022 elections. It is from the past – from 2015 and the great migration crisis that affected the whole of Europe. This was especially dramatic in Sweden, because a large proportion of migrants came to Sweden and everyone except the radical left understood that the situation was untenable. Previously, it was not even possible to say publicly that immigration could cause problems, but afterwards even the centre-left government had to admit that the migration policy was not working and that the influx had to be reduced. This opened a debate that had previously only been raised by the Sweden Democrats and which subsequently reached public opinion. At the same time, problems with criminal gangs exploded and began to worsen, making it impossible to deny the obvious link between these gangs and immigration, something that has always been denied, even though the vast majority of gang members are immigrants or children of immigrants. Since the 2015 migration crisis, the debate has shifted to the right and criticism of immigration has become normalized in public debate, as was the case in Denmark, and seems to be happening in Germany as well.

Is it this change in mentality that has made the Sweden Democrats the leading force of the right?

I’m not sure, because the support for the Sweden Democrats entered the public debate before the change. Many people were angry that they could not talk about this issue, and they already voted for the Sweden Democrats. In a sense, I would say that the change in debate has reduced the party’s potential growth, because many voters who think immigration is not going well or that crime needs to be reduced may stay with their old parties. Until 2015, Sweden Democrats had a monopoly on criticizing immigration; that monopoly has been broken.

For the first time, more immigrants have left Sweden than have arrived.

Yes, this also includes voluntary re-emigration and there are some questions about the figures, but the direction is clear and it is very good.

This policy is not problematic if the return is voluntary, but does the same apply to people deported for committing crimes?

The idea that criminals should be deported is not controversial in Sweden. Some members of the far left have been much ridiculed because their argument against it was: ‘Why do we deport foreign criminals and not Swedish criminals?’ There’s no point. When we talk about illegal immigrants who have committed no crime other than entering the country illegally, the moderate left seems to disagree with deportation, but they know they cannot defend this now in the public debate.

The crimes committed by criminal gangs in Sweden even make headlines in countries such as Spain, which has a lax policy on illegal immigration. Has the situation improved since the current government took office?

Yes, that is one of the great achievements of this government. There have been many changes in the law and there will be many more to come. A new law is being prepared that will double the punishment for crimes committed within criminal gangs. I believe that there is no better way to fight organized crime, and this is a measure that has been in place in Denmark for years: that is, we have copied Danish law.

Denmark, with a left-wing government, has pioneered many measures against illegal immigration and in the fight against criminal gangs.

Absolute. Denmark is the great source of inspiration for the Swedish right in this area. This is very interesting because ten to fifteen years ago Denmark was described as the worst possible place. Journalists and politicians from Center and Left compared the country to Mordor and Nazi Germany and said Sweden would never become like that. People talked about Denmark the way they talk about Hungary today. Now everyone thinks that Denmark is great and that we have to be tougher because we are ten years behind. It is a radical change in perspective and in the tone of public debate.

It is said that there is a social democrat in every Swede, even in the right wing. Has this changed?

Yes; But of course that does not mean that the welfare state is dismantled. On the contrary: the right is a strong defender of this model, which has been threatened by immigration policy. There are no new, liberal ideas to cut taxes or privatize the health care system; but in his opening speech to parliament, the prime minister said the government would focus on the four K’s: crime, climate, competitiveness and war (in Swedish these words start with a K). These are the big challenges facing our government: reducing crime, reducing emissions, increasing economic competitiveness and helping Ukraine win the war against Russia.

His speech also focused on immigration: “Voluntary re-emigration should also be greatly increased and encouraged.” I am convinced that this speech is not just the Prime Minister’s opinion, but has been approved by all parties supporting the government, including the Sweden Democrats.

Haven’t green policies, like in other countries, been harmful to the economy?

No, I don’t think so. Green policies have led to the closure of six of our twelve nuclear power plants, the oldest and the smallest. This led to an increase in electricity prices in 2022, but at the moment prices are extremely low and electricity is the cheapest in Europe. When it comes to fuels, green policies have pushed up prices by forcing the blending of biofuels into gasoline and diesel, angering the population. However, the current government has relaxed this measure and reduced taxes on fossil fuels, causing prices to fall. As a result, Sweden does not experience the popular anger over green issues that exists in other countries.

It is also important to note that many in the center and on the right are not skeptical about climate and see it as an important issue. When the government says that climate is one of its priorities, it knows it is an issue that worries Swedish voters.

As for the war, will there be more support for Ukraine, and what role does Sweden want to play in NATO?

There will be more support for Ukraine: more weapons and more money, in a decisive and resolute way. There is also talk of an order from arms manufacturer SAAB, which could be interpreted as a preparation to donate Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine in the future.

Sweden wants to be a frontline NATO country. The military budget will continue to grow, Swedish troops will be sent to Latvia this year and it is possible that troops will be sent to Finland together with Norway. This is therefore not a gradual approach to NATO integration, but the beginning of a race in which Sweden wants to be at the forefront.

What do the Swedish people think about their army?

A lot has changed. We had military service: it was abolished and then reintroduced. There used to be a negative image of the military because it was seen as weak and unable to defend the country, but now surveys show that the population has a much more positive image of their armed forces. Similarly, when the war in Ukraine began in 2022, there was a huge increase in the number of volunteers for our Territorial Defense Force. Another example is that when people are asked if they are willing to defend their country with weapons, the three countries in Europe with the highest positive response are Turkey, Finland and Sweden. When it comes to defense, we have a very strong mentality.