New GIGA Focus Latin America

GIGA focus | Latin America | Number 5 | October 2024 | ISSN 1862-3573.

As Brazil prepares for midterm elections on October 6, 2024, far-right leaders are vying for leadership. All eyes are on São Paulo, where the right-wing candidate of the “old guard” is confronted with the rise of a young, extremist YouTuber. Polls show a three-way bond between these two and the socialist-left candidate supported by President Lula. The result will be a harbinger for politics in post-Lula Brazil.

With 12 million inhabitants, São Paulo is more densely populated than many Latin American countries. In Brazil, it serves as a microcosm of national politics, and the city’s leadership is an important springboard for national ambitions.

The recent resurgence of the far right confirms the eclipse of traditional conservative parties over the past decade. The new far right is stronger, better connected through social media and evangelical churches, and finds support from both the poorest and the richest.

Both candidates fighting for the extremist legacy in São Paulo have a military police officer as their running mate. They join 6,600 candidates from the public safety and military sectors who are running for office nationwide. Security remains a pressing issue that mobilizes voters. Across the political spectrum, security proposals are similar: increasing armed personnel.

Regardless of their ideological differences, the three leading candidates for office in São Paulo are all accused of conspiring with organized crime. While some fear that Brazil is becoming a mafia state, crime syndicates, like other business groups, will try to influence government decisions – in their case in favor of illegal economies.

Policy implications

There is an urgent need for better regulation of a) the use of social media, both in terms of campaigning and fundraising; b) of illegal markets to combat their political and social reach; and c) of the dual role that soldiers and police play between institutional politics and the security world to ensure that the security forces, as a state institution, remain politically neutral.

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