Opinion: TRUMP vs. HARRIS DEBATE ANALYSIS

Both Trump and Harris supporters watching this debate probably spent a frustrating night yelling at the TV about missed opportunities. There were 23 questions asked during the 90-minute debate. The moderators gave each candidate the opportunity to respond to their opponent’s answers and, on some questions, the responses went back and forth more than once before moving to a new question.

Trump and Harris were each asked 12 questions. We assigned each question a rating from 1 to 10 to determine difficulty. When assessing the difficulty rating of each question we used our judgment on how much we thought the candidate did or did not want to talk about that subject. With 10 indicating they did not want to talk about that subject and 1 indicating they wanted to talk about that subject. They were both asked “hard” questions with Harris’s 6.75 average difficulty coming in just a bit higher than Trump’s 6.25.

Typically, Republicans want to debate issues on immigration, taxes, and foreign policy, while Democrats prefer to talk about healthcare, education, and the environment. Of course, that can change based on who is the incumbent because challengers tend to want to advocate for change while incumbents need to defend their policies. The challenger/incumbent aspect of the 2024 election greatly impacted what each candidate wanted to talk about in this debate.

Right/Wrong track polling data has consistently been a reliable indicator of which candidate will win a presidential election. In 2024, wrong track numbers have stayed above 60% with a high of 70.2% in July and a low of 60.8% on September 5. The right track numbers have stayed below 30% until a high water mark of 31% on August 30. That is a difference of about 30% to 40 % over the last year. The chart to the right shows Right/Wrong track polling data for the last 11 presidential elections. The incumbent party lost in 1980, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016 and 2020 with the lowest difference being 18% and an average difference of 47.3%. Additionally, in the six elections when incumbents lost, the average wrong-track percentage was 70.1%. The incumbent party won in 1984, 1988, 1996, 2004, and 2012 with an average difference of 7.2%. For the five elections when incumbents won, the average wrong-track percentage was only 49%. These numbers do not bode well for the incumbent Democrat party, but we are experiencing something no one in our lifetime has ever seen. In 2024, we have a former President running against an incumbent Vice President. This may impact the traditional Right/Wrong track polling prediction and could make it a bit harder for Trump to effectively communicate a change message to voters who feel the US is on the wrong track.

Debate Comparison Results

Difficulty of questions — Our assessment showed Harris had slightly more difficult questions than Trump. This is probably because Harris is a Vice President who somewhat has to defend the incumbency position in a year with voters concerned about several issues that have them pessimistic about the direction of the country.

Harris Score 6.75— The moderators asked her hard questions about the economy, immigration, and foreign policy. Additionally, she has changed positions, and they included a hard-hitting question on that subject.
Trump Score 6.25 — His hard questions were on issues that undecided voters probably care less about. January 6th, the 2020 election and racism are past issues he should have avoided answering as well as Harris handled her tough ones.

Answered Questions — The whole debate was thin on policy specifics with Trump doing a better job of answering questions compared to Harris. However, neither candidate offered a specific plan on how they would fix the problems identified in the questions. Even more surprising, was how they didn’t use statistics, stories, or facts to support their attacks or bolster their own records. Both candidates missed golden opportunities to score points against their opponents and give voters a reason to support their campaigns!

Harris Answered 1 — Harris did exactly what they teach you in communications training… don’t answer the question they ask; give them the answer you want. She did that perfectly but unfortunately, when a candidate is meeting millions of voters for the first time, they need to offer more specifies about some of the top issues voters care about. Her ability to avoid answering if Americans were better than they were four years ago, may have been her biggest mistake. Sure, inflation is bad but there are plenty of statistics about jobs and the economy that are positive, and she does have a plan to tackle inflation. She blew that one! If her biggest mistake was not answering question 1, her worst answer was question 10 about her positions changing. She said she would address each one- then didn’t and said she never changed on fracking. Surely, her base will let her move to the center to beat Trump and a genuine explanation about why she has shifted with some facts and statistics would have been well received by voters meeting her for the first time. The early reports from polls and focus groups of undecided voters seem to show her disciplined responses didn’t pull them her way.
Trump Answered 5 — While Trump was more forthright than Harris, he still did a poor job of offering specific answers. He could have offered powerful statistics on inflation, used facts to highlight the southern border disaster, and articulated specific plans for ending the Ukraine and Israel conflicts. However, he offered specific answers on the unimportant January 6 and 2020 election questions but missed huge opportunities on immigration, the economy and foreign policy.

Fact Checked/Pressed for Yes or No Answer — The moderators only interjected to fact check or press for a yes or no answer on Trump’s answers. On nine out of his 12 questions they either contradicted his answer or pushed for a yes or no answer. While this probably pleased Harris supporters and infuriated Trump supporters, reports from polls and focus groups indicate it may have gained him sympathy with undecided voters. Post-debate fact-checkers at PBS, CBS, and the Wall Street Journal pointed out inaccuracies Harris leveled at Trump about him opposing in vitro fertilization, that he called neo-Nazis in Charlottesville, VA., “very fine people,” and that he threatened a “bloodbath” if he loses the election. Additionally, ABC has pointed out that over 2,500 service members in Iraq and 900 in Syria are subject to threats from drone and missile attacks. However, the moderators chose not to push back on any of those comments nor did they take the chance to push for a yes or no answer on the better off four years ago, abortion restrictions, or withdrawal from Afghanistan questions that she did not answer. Their one-sided involvement fired up Trump supporters and probably gained him sympathy from undecided voters.

Key Takeaways

Most Republican and Democrat political experts agree Harris “won” the debate. She did a great job of attacking Trump with trivial issues that got him sidetracked and kept him from using immigration and the economy against her. She also effectively avoided answering the “hard” questions.
However, avoiding being stepped on by the elephant in the room requires skill and keeps you alive, but the elephant is still in the room and must be delt with. Inflation, immigration, and her policy shifts are the elephant in the room and undecided voters want to know how she plans to address them. While she did a great job of avoiding direct answers to those questions, she still needed to offer a plan for what she would do to improve the situation or explain why she changed course.
Harris did a great job of looking like she could be President. She went toe to toe with Trump and handled herself well. Anyone who doubted if she could do the job got their answer. Much like Kennedy in 1960 she showed she was up to the task.
Trump did a good job of not interrupting and he seemed more presidential than in the 2020 debates. Surprisingly enough, Trump had the last word on all 23 questions, but it didn’t seem like he had to bully Harris to make it happen. He was able to lodge effective talking points on immigration, inflation, and her policy shifts at the end of responses on many questions.
Trump is the challenger, and this debate gave him an easier path to victory. With the wrong track numbers so high and right track numbers so low, he should have repeatedly hit Harris with facts and statistics on inflation and immigration. He should have presented specific plans to deal with the pressing issues voters care about and he could have scored major points on her policy shifts during several of the response opportunities. However, he didn’t offer specifics and kept his attacks broad and general causing him to miss a golden opportunity to pull ahead in this race.
While most observers focus on undecided voters, base turnout will be a major factor in the 2024 election. Pollsters project there are between 3% and 12% undecided votes up for grabs. While that is a small number, they can be the deciding factor in a close race, but base turnout is also a key element to winning 270 electoral votes. Both bases are probably frustrated with their candidates after this debate. I doubt Harris avoiding specific answers and presenting vague platitudes did little to endear her to her base — she is depending on Trump hate to motivate her base. Trump’s performance was also uninspiring, but his base can focus their discontent on the moderator’s involvement. His base feeds on his populist anti-establishment message and opposition to his message fuels their desire to see him win. I predict Trump’s base leaves the debate more inspired than Harris’s base, which could have an impact on turnout in battleground states.

Review of all 23 Questions with Abridged Answers

Question – Vice President Harris, you and President Trump were elected four years ago and your opponent on the stage here tonight often asks his supporters, are you better off than you were four years ago? When it comes to the economy, do you believe Americans are better off than they were four years ago?Answer Summary – “So, I was raised as a middle-class kid. And I am actually the only person on this stage who has a plan that is about lifting up the middle class and working people of America. I believe in the ambition, the aspirations, the dreams of the American people. And that is why I imagine and have actually a plan to build what I call an opportunity economy.” (329 total words on her economic plan but no answer to question).
Question – President Trump, do you believe Americans can afford higher prices because of tariffs.Answer Summary – “They aren’t gonna have higher prices what’s gonna have and who’s gonna have higher prices is China and all of the countries that have been ripping us off for years. I charge, I was the only president ever China was paying us hundreds of billions of dollars and so were other countries and you know if she doesn’t like ‘em they should have gone out and they should have immediately cut the tariffs but those tariffs are there three and a half years now under their administration.” (189 total words on tariffs and inflation with specific answer to question).
Question – Vice President Harris I do want to ask for your response, and you heard what the president said there because the Biden administration did keep a number of the Trump tariffs in place so how do you respond?Answer Summary – “Well, let’s be clear that the Trump administration resulted in a trade deficit, one of the highest we’ve ever seen in the history of America.” (208 total words on trade deal, Trump selling chips to China and thanking Xi on Covid, but no answer to question of why they kept tariffs in place).
Question – President Trump, Vice President Harris says that women shouldn’t trust you on the issue of abortion because you’ve changed your position so many times. Therefore, why should they trust you?Answer Summary– “Well, the reason I’m doing that vote is because the plan is, as you know, the vote is, they have an abortion in the ninth month.” (281 total words with a specific answer for why he switched his position. He also spoke about late term abortions up to birth and the Supreme Court ruling sending the issue to states by overturning Roe versus Wade. He also added his support of the exceptions for rape, incest and life of mother). Lindsey Davis fact-checked the president about a baby being killed after it is born.
Question – (after more discussion about abortion) President Trump, would you veto a national abortion ban if it came to –Answer Summary – “Well, I won’t have to because again — two things. Number one, she said she’ll go back to Congress. She’ll never get the vote. It’s impossible for her to get the vote.” (368 total words where he doesn’t directly answer the question because he says a ban will never pass congress and Lindsey Davis twice presses for a yes or no answer and he rambles on about Biden’s student loan forgiveness efforts).
Question – Vice President Harris, I want to give you your time to respond. But I do want to ask, would you support any restrictions on a woman’s right to an abortion?Answer Summary – “I absolutely support reinstating the protections of Roe V. Wade.” (183 total words where she does not directly answer the question (although Roe v Wade did not place restrictions on abortions) and talked about IVF).
They ended the abortion discussion with the Vice President asking Trump if he would veto a national abortion ban and the President asking Kamala if she would allow abortions in the seventh, eighth or ninth months. Neither answered the other’s question.
Question – Vice President Harris, my question to you tonight is why did the administration wait until six months before the election to act and would you have done anything differently from President Biden on this?Answer Summary – “So I’m the only person on this stage who has prosecuted transnational criminal organizations for the trafficking of guns, drugs, and human beings.” (390 total words with no answer to the question and she talked about Trump’s opposition to bipartisan border bill and Trumps rallies).
Question – President Trump, why did you try to kill that bill and successfully so? That would have put thousands of additional agents and officers on the border.Answer Summary – “First, let me respond as to the rallies. She said people start leaving.” (293 total words without answering question. He talked about rallies and how bad immigration was on southern border and immigrants eating animals). David Muir then attempted to fact check Trump about immigrants eating pets three different times.
Question – President Trump, how would you deport 11 million undocumented immigrants? I know you believe that number is much higher. Take us through this. What does this look like? Will authorities be going door to door in this country?Answer Summary – “Yeah. It is much higher because of them. They allowed criminals. Many, many, millions of criminals.” (299 total words without answering how he would deport them. He stressed how bad the immigration problem was and David Muir again fact checked Trump on FBI crime statistics).
Question – Vice President Harris, in your last run for president you said you wanted to ban fracking. Now you don’t. You wanted mandatory government buyback programs for assault weapons. Now your campaign says you don’t. You supported decriminalizing border crossings. Now you’re taking a harder line. I know you say that your values have not changed. So then why have so many of your policy positions changed?Answer Summary – “So my values have not changed. And I’m going to discuss everyone — at least every point that you’ve made.” (372 total words but never answered the question. Said she never switched positions on fracking and didn’t address the other points. Rambled on about her middle-class upbringing and positive issues she has worked on).
Question – Mr. President, on January 6th you told your supporters to march to the Capitol. Is there anything you regret about what you did on that day?Answer Summary – “I had nothing to do with that other than they asked me to make a speech. I showed up for a speech.” (413 total words with no direct yes or no answer but Trump clearly left the impression he didn’t regret anything. David Muri pressed him three times for a yes or no answer).
Question – Mr. President, for 3 and a half years after you lost the 2020 election you repeatedly falsely claimed that you won, many times saying you won in a landslide. Are you now acknowledging that you lost in 2020?Answer Summary – “No, I don’t acknowledge that at all.” (318 total words with Trump directly answering the question and making points about fraud in the 2020 election with David Muir attempting to fact check the President three times).
Question – Vice President Harris, President Trump recently said, “When I win, those people who cheated (in 2020) will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, which will include long-term prison sentences.” One of your campaign’s top lawyers responded saying, “We won’t let Donald Trump intimidate us. We won’t let him suppress the vote.” Is that what you believe he’s trying to do here?
Answer Summary – “Donald Trump was fired by 81 million people. So, let’s be clear about that. And clearly, he is having a very difficult time processing that.” (173 total words where she did not directly answer the question but definitely left a negative impression about his actions and temperament).
Question – Vice President Harris, President Biden has not been able to break through the (Israel/Hamas) stalemate. How would you do it?
Answer Summary – “Well, let’s understand how we got here. On Oct. 7, Hamas, a terrorist organization, slaughtered 1,200 Israelis.” (214 total words with a general answer about a two-state solution to help broker peace).
Question – President Trump, how would you negotiate with Netanyahu and also Hamas in order to get the hostages out and prevent the killing of more innocent civilians in Gaza?
Answer- “If I were president, it would have never started.” (320 total words with no specific plan on his proposal except he would negotiate a cease fire. He mostly attacked Harris and talked about Ukraine).
Question – Mr. President, you have said you would solve this (Ukraine) war in 24 hours. You said so just before the break tonight. How exactly would you do that? And I want to ask you a very simple question tonight. Do you want Ukraine to win this war?Answer Summary – “I want the war to stop. I want to save lives that are being uselessly — people being killed by the millions. It’s the millions.” (471 total words but never gave a specific yes or no answer. He was clear he did not care who won war but just wanted to bring it to an end. David Muir again pressed twice for a yes or no answer).
Question – Vice President Harris. How would you deal with Vladimir Putin and would it be any different from what we’re seeing from President Biden?Answer Summary – “Well, first of all, it’s important to remind the former president you’re not running against Joe Biden, you’re running against me. I believe the reason that Donald Trump says that this war would be over within 24 hours is because he would just give it (Ukraine) up.” (325 total words that did not answer how she would handle Putin or if she would do things differently from Biden, but she offered a general plan for helping Ukraine).
Question – Vice President Harris, have you ever met Vladimir Putin, can you clarify tonight?Answer Summary– “Yet again, I said it at the beginning of this debate, you’re going to hear a bunch of lies coming from this fella. And that is another one. When I went to meet with President Zelenskyy, I’ve now met with him over five times.” (169 total words that did not directly answer the question, but it appears the point was she only met with Zelenskyy and not Putin and this question was seemed designed to clarify that).
Question– Vice president Harris, do you believe you bear any responsibility in the way that withdrawal played out?Answer Summary – “Well, I will tell you, I agreed with President Biden’s decision to pull out of Afghanistan. Four presidents said they would, and Joe Biden did. And as a result, America’s taxpayers are not paying the $300 million a day we were paying for that endless war.” (283 total words that did not answer if she felt responsible for withdrawal, and she charges Trump with weak negotiations with the Taliban).
Question – President Trump, why do you believe it’s appropriate to weigh in on the racial identity of your opponent?Answer Summary – I don’t. And I don’t care. I don’t care what she is. I don’t care. You make a big deal out of something. I couldn’t care less. Whatever she wants to be is okay with me.” (87 total words directly answering the question with David Muir pushing Trump to clarify the quote he had made about Harris being black).
Question – President Trump, do you have a plan (to replace Obamacare) and can you tell us what it is?Answer Summary– “Obamacare was lousy health care. Always was. It’s not very good today. And what I said, that if we come up with something, we are working on things, we’re going to do it and we’re going to replace it.” (369 total words indirectly answering the question. Trump said he would like to replace it and once pressed for a yes or no answer said he is working on it and has a concept for a replacement plan). Lindsey Davis pressed for a yes or no answer.
Question – Vice President Harris, in 2017 you supported Bernie Sanders’ proposal to do away with private insurance and create a government-run health care system. Two years later you proposed a plan that included a private insurance option. What is your plan today?Answer Summary– “Well, first of all, I absolutely support and over the last four years as vice president private health care options. But what we need to do is maintain and grow the Affordable Care Act.” (450 total words and said she supports private healthcare and indirectly answered the question by saying her plan would strengthen the Affordable Healthcare Act. She also answered attacks from Trump’s previous remarks and pointed out that Trump tried to repeal Obamacare).
Question – The question to you both tonight is what would you do to fight climate change?Answer Summary Harris – “Well, the former president had said that climate change is a hoax. And what we know is that it is very real. You ask anyone who lives in a state who has experienced these extreme weather occurrences who now is either being denied home insurance or is being jacked up.” (231 total words that never answered the question. She talked about how important this issue was and things she had done in the past. She said we need to create manufacturing jobs by opening more automobile plants in the US but never offered her plan to fight climate change).
Answer Summary Trump – “That didn’t happen under Donald Trump. Let me just tell you, they lost 10,000 manufacturing jobs this last month. It’s going — they’re all leaving. They’re building big auto plants in Mexico. In many cases owned by China. They’re building these massive plants, and they think they’re going to sell their cars into the United States because of these people.” (233 total words where he did not answer the question but responded to Harris’s comments about manufacturing jobs).