Providing context for Vance and Walz’s debate night claims — The New Political

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance faced off this week in the first and only Vice Presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. The two candidates refrained from personal attacks on one another, even voicing their agreement several times. Still, both remained highly critical of the other’s running mate as they discussed the Middle East, trade, immigration policy, gun violence, housing and more. 

Moderators opened with questions about escalating conflicts in the Middle East, prompting claims about the Trump and Biden administration’s respective Iranian policies. 

CBS’s Margaret Brennan directed the first question at Gov. Tim Walz, posing the hypothetical, “Earlier today, Iran launched it’s largest attack on Israel yet but that attack failed due to joint U.S. and Israeli defensive actions … if you were the final voice in the situation room, would you support or oppose a pre-emptive strike on Israel?”

1. Walz responded that during his presidency, former President Trump “pulled” a coalition of nations that had “boxed Iran’s nuclear program in,” and “put nothing in its place.” As a result, Walz said, Iran is “closer to a nuclear weapon than they were before.” 

This is most likely in reference to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a 2015 agreement between China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union which sought to “ensure that Iran’s nuclear program (would) be exclusively peaceful.” 

In 2018, the Trump White House announced an end to U.S. participation in JCPOA, asserting that the deal “gave the Iranian regime too much in exchange for too little.” Walz’s claim that Trump “put nothing in its place” is false; after withdrawing from the JCPOA, Trump reinstated sanctions which had been previously lifted under the conditions of the deal and continued to tighten sanctions in the following years of 2019 and 2020. 

However, the claim that Iran has since advanced its nuclear program is true. Sanctions on Iran were lifted as a condition for Iran’s compliance; once those sanctions were reinstated, Iran announced in May 2019 that it would no longer comply with limitations on stockpiling heavy water and low-enriched uranium. In November of 2023, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a report which estimated Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile at 4,486.8 kg — 22 times the limit established by JCPOA. 

1. Vance claimed that “Iran has received over 100 billion dollars in unfrozen assets thanks to the Kamala Harris administration. They use that money to buy weapons that they are launching against our allies and potentially against the United States.”

This is mostly false. 

This figure — $100 billion in assets — appears in the conditions of JCPOA, which allowed Iran to regain access to its foreign reserves, totaling roughly $100 billion . However, the agreement took place in 2015 under the Obama administration; therefore the claim that Kamala Harris was at fault is false. 

In 2023, the United States agreed to unfreeze an additional $6 billion  in Iranian assets in exchange for the release of five American hostages. 

1. Walz also said that “when Iranian missiles fell near U.S. troops, and they received traumatic brain injuries, Donald Trump wrote it off as a headache.” 

This is true. 

In January of 2020, the U.S. military conducted airstrikes targeting the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF), Qassam Soleimani. Iran launched retaliatory missile attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq, after which 109 U.S. troops suffered traumatic brain injuries. 

Trump initially reported that no U.S. troops were injured and was asked by reporters to explain the “discrepancy.” He responded “I heard that they had headaches, among other things, but I would say … I would report that it was not very serious.”

The candidates then turned toward climate change, comparing the Trump and Biden administrations’ stances on clean energy. 

1. Walz claimed that “we are producing more natural gas and more oil at any time than we ever have. 

This is true. In March, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (IEA) reported that 2023 marked the sixth year in a row in which the U.S. “produced more oil than any nation at any time.” The U.S. surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia in 2018 and has since held onto its lead. That same year, natural gas made up a record share of the U.S.’s “power mix,” meaning natural gas made up a larger than ever proportion of the energy used to meet the nation’s electricity demand.  

1. In addition, Walz said, “we’re also producing more clean energy.”

This is true — “Clean energy” sources, according to the Department of Energy, include solar, wind, water, bioenergy and nuclear. In 2023, energy production for these sources totaled a record 16.53 quadrillion British thermal units. 

1. Vance, meanwhile, claimed that Democrats spent “billions of dollars of American taxpayer dollars on solar panels that are made in China.”

This is mostly false.

Biden did not invest directly in solar panels. However, In April, the Biden administration announced a $7 billion investment in solar energy. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said the $7 billion  would be received by “60 selectees,” including states, territories, Tribal governments, municipalities and nonprofits, as grants. 

It is true, however, that China has come to dominate solar panel production in recent years. According to the International Energy Agency, “China’s share in all the manufacturing stages of solar panels (such as polysilicon, ingots, wafers, cells and modules) exceeds 80%.” 

1. Vance attacked the Biden administration’s trade policy, which he said led to “more energy production in China. More manufacturing jobs overseas.”

These claims are difficult to quantify. Overall, China leads the world in total energy production. But this trend isn’t new — China has been number one since 2006 when it surpassed the U.S. in quadrillions of British thermal units produced in energy. 

Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs have seen an increase of 75,700 under the Biden administration. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. was 12,188,000 in January of 2021, when Biden took office. In June of 2024, that number was 12,945,000. 

1. America has the “cleanest economy in the world,” Vance said, in terms of “amount of carbon emissions per economic output.”

This is false.

This claim can be tested against a number of metrics. Most notably, the U.S. ranked 2nd to China in 2021 in CO2 emissions as a percentage of the global total. 

The moderators raised the question of immigration, asking Vance to elaborate on his running mate’s plans to carry out the “largest mass deportation plan in American history.” 

1. Vance pointed to Vice President Kamala Harris’s role in what he called a “historic immigration crisis” and said Harris called for “94 orders suspending deportations, decriminalizing illegal immigrants, (and) massively increasing the asylum fraud that exists in our systems.” 

The “94 orders” claim most likely refer to 94 immigration-related executive orders, which President Biden issued in his first 100 days in office. According to the Migration Policy Institute, an American think tank, “more than half of the Biden actions have undone or sought to undo Trump administration measures.” 

The claim that the Biden administration suspended deportations is misleading. 

It’s true that these orders included a temporary suspension of deportations. On his first day in office, Biden’s Department of Homeland Security announced a 100-day moratorium on deportations of noncitizens, excluding those “suspected of terrorism or espionage,” those who entered after Nov. 1, and those who voluntarily waived their rights to remain in the U.S. 

However, a federal judge in Texas blocked enforcement of the order only six days later. 

“Decriminalizing” is more ambiguous. This could refer to Biden’s so-called “Parole in Place” proposal, which would allow undocumented spouses and stepchildren of U.S. citizens to remain in the U.S. while applying for lawful permanent resident status. This conduct would, by definition, “decriminalize” the conduct of remaining in the U.S. while applying for a green card. 

Last month, however, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an administrative stay in a lawsuit challenging the proposal, meaning Parole in Place applications will not be processed until when and if the stay is vacated. 

1. Vance claimed that out of 25 million undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S., “a million of those people have committed some form of crime in addition to crossing the border illegally.” 

This is false. Though the exact number of undocumented people currently living in the U.S. is unknown, a report by the Office of Homeland Security Statistics estimated the undocumented population as of 2022 at 10,990,000. 

The number of undocumented people currently in the U.S. with criminal records is even more difficult to pinpoint. The U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) monitors arrests of noncitizens with criminal convictions, which totaled 15,267 for the fiscal year of 2023, or 5,722 when illegal entry/re-entry convictions are omitted. The total number of noncitizens with criminal convictions currently in the U.S. is unclear. 

1. Vance said that the Biden-Harris administration “let in fentanyl at record levels.”

This is mostly true.

According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), the number of pills containing fentanyl seized by law enforcement in the U.S. has increased drastically between 2017 and 2023, over the course of both the Trump and Biden administrations. This number increased by over four million from 49,657 in 2017 to 4,149,037 in 2020 and spiked even more drastically between 2020 and 2023. The number of pills increased by 111 million during the Biden administration and totaled 115,562,607 in 2023.

The Customs and Border Control’s website only displays drug seizure statistics dating back to 2021, but similarly shows an increase in fentanyl seizures over the last three years. CBP seized 27,000 lbs of fentanyl in 2023 compared with 11,200 in 2021, the vast majority of which (26,600 of the 27,000 lbs seized in 2023 and 10,500 of the 11,200 lbs seized in 2021) were seized at the southern border. 

In the immigration context, however, Vance’s claims are misleading. In the fiscal year of 2023, the United States Sentencing Commission (USSC) reported 3,085 cases involving the trafficking of fentanyl. The overwhelming majority — 86.4% — of perpetrators were U.S. citizens, not undocumented immigrants

1. Walz, meanwhile, claimed that opioid deaths were decreasing nationwide and have seen a 30% decrease in Ohio. 

The claim that nationwide opioid deaths are decreasing nationwide is true. 

In 2023, the Center for Disease Control (CDC) reported a 3.68% decrease in overdose deaths involving opioids — 81,083 in 2023 compared with 84,181 in 2022. 

The second claim appears to be false —

According to data from the Ohio Department of Health, drug overdose deaths involving “any opioid” decreased from 4,369 in 2021 to 4,138 in 2022 — a decrease of 5%.

More recent data has not yet been made available by the Ohio Department of Health. 

1. Vance, when asked about family separation policies, responded, “right now in this country, we have 320,000 children that the Department of Homeland Security has effectively lost.” 

This claim is true but requires context:

Vance’s comment refers to an Aug. 2024 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) memorandum, which reported that the U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) “could not monitor the location and status of all unaccompanied minor children.” 

Typically, when unaccompanied migrant children (UCs) are apprehended by the DHS, ICE transfers them to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR). The ORR is responsible for the care and custody of UCs as they await immigration proceedings. 

However, an audit of “ICE’s ability to monitor the location and status of UCs” between their release from HHS custody and their appearances in immigration court found that over 32,000 UCs who missed their scheduled court appearances were unaccounted for by ICE. An additional 291,000 UCs did not receive a notice to appear in court (NTA), and therefore are not scheduled to appear in immigration proceedings at all. 

“Based on our audit work and according to ICE officials,” Inspector General Joseph V. Cuffari, who authored the memorandum, wrote, “UCs who do not appear for court are considered at higher risk for trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor.”

Therefore, “without an ability to monitor the location and status of UCs, ICE has no assurance UCs are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor”. 

The moderators raised the issue of the economy and asked the candidates how their respective administrations would finance their economic proposals.

CBS’s Nora O’Donnell first directed the question at Walz: “Vice President Harris included a new child tax credit. The Wharton School said your proposals will increase the deficit by $1.2 trillion. How would you pay for that without ballooning the deficit?” 

1. Vance echoed a familiar refrain: “she has been the vice president for three and a half years,” during which she drove the cost of food and housing up by 25% and 60%, respectively. 

The first claim is somewhat true.

The 25% figure appears alongside a chart published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which said that “from 2019 to 2023, the all-food Consumer Price Index rose by 25%.” 

However, the USDA credits these price increases to circumstances outside the administration’s control. Inflated food prices in 2020 and 2021, the USDA said, were an output of “shifting consumption patterns and supply chain disruptions resulting from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.” In 2022, food prices “increased faster than any year since 1979,” which the agency attributed to a combination of conflict in Ukraine and avian influenza outbreaks affecting egg and poultry prices. 

The second claim is mostly false.

The 60% figure appears in a New York Times article published this March, which reported that “home prices are up 60% over the last decade, adjusted for inflation.” This figure, however, reflects a decade’s worth of inflation, rather than just that which took place under the Biden administration. 

Data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reported the median sales price of houses sold in the U.S. at $355,000 at the beginning of 2021 when President Biden took office. As of April 2024, that number was at $412,300, meaning the median sales price increased 16.1% — not 60% — over the course of Biden’s term. 

1. Donald Trump, Walz said, “was the guy who created the largest trade deficit in American history with China.” 

This is mostly true.

The United States saw its largest trade deficit with China in 2018, during the Trump administration, totaling 418 billion dollars. 

Whether President Trump himself was responsible for the deficit, however, is debatable.  The World Trade Organization argues that trade policy has little effect on trade deficits, and wrote in a 2020 study that “most economists contend that trade policy is not an appropriate tool to reduce trade imbalances, since these are driven by macroeconomic factors.”

The moderators then addressed “America’s gun violence epidemic,” starting with a question for Vance.

1. Vance claimed that “close to 90% of the gun violence in the country is committed with illegally obtained firearms.” 

This is false. 

The data on illegal vs. legal guns used in crimes is mixed. Because gun laws can vary greatly from state to state, illegal firearms may be used in most crimes in some jurisdictions but rarely used in others. A John Hopkins survey of 281 inmates convicted of gun-related offenses, all incarcerated in the 13 states with the most lenient gun laws, found that only 40% of the weapons used in crimes were obtained illegally. 

In the other 37 states, the opposite was true — about 60% of the weapons used in crimes were obtained illegally. 

1. When Vance mentioned gun violence in cities, Walz responded that “most firearm deaths in Minnesota are rural suicides.” 

This is true. 

A recent report by Minnesota’s House Public Safety and Children and Family Committee found that between 2018 and 2021, 73.1% of firearm deaths were suicides. In addition, firearm suicide rates were 1.5 to 2 times higher in rural areas than in urban areas. 

1. Vance blamed an increase in illegal firearms on the Biden administration’s immigration policies: “Thanks to Kamala Harris’s open border, we’ve seen a massive influx in the number of illegal guns run by the Mexican drug cartels. The amount of illegal guns in our country is higher today than it was 3.5 years ago.” 

This is most likely false. 

The exact “amount of illegal guns in our country” is difficult to pinpoint, but Customs and Border Patrol data on weapons and ammunition seizures suggests a decrease in the number of weapons entering the country. The data reflects a net decrease in the number of “weapons and ammunition seizure events” between 2021 and 2023, with 9,320 events in 2021 and 4,166 in 2023. 

The candidates devoted time near the end of the debate to the issues of housing and childcare.

1. Vance linked housing inflation and immigration, referencing a “federal reserve study … that drills down the connection between increased levels of immigration, especially illegal immigration, and higher housing prices.” 

Vance promised to post the “study” in question on social media after the debate. Instead, Vance posted a speech by Michelle Bowman, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 

In the speech, Bowman mentions immigration twice, first as a contributing factor to improvements in the state of inflation, and later as a potential cause for concern in the affordable housing market.