Bracing for China’s reaction to Lai’s speech

Decoding transatlantic relations with Beijing.

By PHELIM KINE

with STUART LAU

Send tips here | Tweet @PhelimKine or @StuartKLau | Subscribe for free | View in your browser

Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at the prospect of a new round of Chinese military harassment of Taiwan, examine Stanford faculty opposition to a revival of the Justice Department’s “China Initiative” and look back at the 1984 murder of a U.S. citizen in California by Taiwan’s then-authoritarian government. And we profile a book that argues that China’s “wolf warrior” diplomats are a product of Xi Jinping’s demands for “fighting spirit” in asserting China’s interests.

Let’s get to it. — Phelim.

Taiwan braces for more Chinese military harassment

We could see a fresh bout of Chinese military intimidation of Taiwan following the island’s President Lai Ching-te’s national day speech today.

“Even though we have not seen significant military activity or exercises following previous 10/10 speeches, we are prepared that Beijing may choose to use this as a pretext,” said a senior administration official who briefed reporters Wednesday. The briefing was provided on the condition that reporters agree to grant the official anonymity.

Those comments follow predictions by Taiwan’s military on Monday that Beijing will seize on Lai’s speech as a “provocation” that merits a military response per Reuters.

Word war. Beijing will likely justify its response to how Lai “phrases things,” in his speech the U.S. official told the group of reporters.

And Beijing has likely pre-planned its reaction to Lai’s speech regardless of its content, said Michael Hunzeker, associate professor of international security at George Mason University and expert on deterrence across the Strait.

“It really doesn’t matter what Lai says. In a couple of days, China will do something which is disproportionate in response,” Hunzeker said.

Here we go again. Both Taipei and the White House fear a repeat of Beijing’s response to Lai’s inauguration speech in May. After that address, China dramatically increased military activity around Taiwan for what Chinese state media called punishment for the island’s “secessionist forces.” That same month Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi vilified Lai for alleged “disgraceful betrayals of the nation and the ancestors” due to his history of support for Taiwan independence.

Avoid the “I word.” The Biden administration wants Lai to hew to his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen’s commitment to “maintain the cross-Strait status quo” by avoiding language that suggests a policy shift toward independence.

“Washington does not need another crisis this week and I am sure is conveying this to Taipei, but how much Lai is listening is unclear,” said Douglas Paal, who was director of the U.S. diplomatic outpost in Taipei, the American Institute in Taiwan, under President George W. Bush.

Red line, flashing. A unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan is “the first red line that cannot be crossed in China-U.S. relations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said last month. That’s an implicit threat of military force across the Strait that Washington takes seriously. A move by Beijing to exploit Lai’s remarks as an “excuse for provocative or coercive measures undermines peace and stability” said a State Department spokesperson granted anonymity because they were unauthorized to publicly discuss cross-Strait ties.

Who’s your mother(land): Lai took a playful poke at those sensitivities on Saturday — and winked to his pro-independence supporters — by urging Taiwanese to avoid calling China “the motherland.”

Beijing took the bait. Lai has “malicious intent to escalate hostility and confrontation,” said China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian on Tuesday. Lai’s comments may reflect his intent “to inch forward Taiwanese claims to be really separate and sovereign and not available for compromise” with China, Paal said.

Helplessly hoping. Taiwan hopes Beijing will “exercise restraint” to avoid disrupting “security in the Indo-Pacific region,” said a spokesperson for Taiwan’s diplomatic outpost in Washington granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss cross-Strait ties. Beijing says it’s ready to rumble. “China will take all necessary measures to resolutely crush any ‘Taiwan independence’ plot,” said Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu.

TRANSLATING WASHINGTON

— STATE: CHINA’S TRANSNATIONAL REPRESSION THREATENS AMERICANS: China’s efforts to harass and intimidate overseas critics are a clear and present danger to U.S. citizens, the Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Dafna Rand said Wednesday. Those tactics are “extremely dangerous to the American taxpayer — this means the United States is fair game for the PRC and others” including Russia, Rand said at an International Republican Institute event Wednesday. Beijing has created a model for other authoritarian countries that “you can go after your dissidents with no accountability and with no problem in Europe, in the United States, in Latin America,” she said, adding that it has “a very real, practical implication for American security.” The Chinese embassy in Washington rejected those assertions. “There is no such thing as ‘transnational repression’ of so-called ‘dissidents’ – this is an issue concocted by the U.S. to slander China,” said embassy spokesperson Liu.

— RAHM URGES ECONOMIC ALLIANCE AGAINST CHINA: U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel wants to rally U.S. allies and partners to take joint “economic countermeasures” against China to deter Beijing’s “coercion, mercantilism and debt-trap diplomacy” worldwide, he said in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal Wednesday. Those tactics would include expanding market access for countries struggling under punitive Chinese import restrictions and widening access to non-Chinese lending sources such as the International Monetary Fund, Emanuel wrote. The op-ed was in keeping with the role Emanuel tends to play in the Biden administration — diplomatic bad cop with Beijing in contrast to the genteel, white glove approach of U.S. ambassador to China Nicholas Burns. “China always believes that countries should be united rather than divided, cooperate rather than confront,” Liu at the Chinese embassy said in response to Emanuel’s op-ed.

— RAIMONDO TALKS TOUGH WITH WANG: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo gave no ground on U.S. beefs with Beijing’s trade and industrial policies in a call with her Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao on Tuesday. Raimondo cited “decreasing regulatory transparency in the PRC, non-market policies and practices, and structural overcapacity in a range of industrial sectors … and re-emphasized that the U.S. government’s “small yard, high fence” approach aims to safeguard U.S. national security,” said a Commerce statement.

Wang had his own complaints including U.S. export restrictions on high-end semiconductors and the Biden administration’s imposition of 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electrical vehicle imports, said a Chinese Commerce Ministry statement. Wang urged Raimondo to “clarify national security boundaries in the field of economy and trade,” the statement said.

TRANSLATING EUROPE

BEIJING WARNS PRAGUE NOT TO HOST TAIWAN’S EX-PRESIDENT: Former Taiwanese President Tsai’s plan to visit the Czech Republic this weekend has drawn ire from Beijing, as the visit will mark an unprecedented international presence by the ex-leader whom Beijing criticizes as pro-independence. “We urge the Czech Republic and relevant countries to earnestly abide by the one-China principle,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday.

The Czech foreign ministry declined a request for comment.

EU CHAMBER CHIEF CALLS OUT CHINA IMBALANCE: The EU is right to worry about the future of its economy and industry, given the widening trade imbalance between China and Europe, European Chamber of Commerce in China President Jens Eskelund told POLITICO’s Koen Verhelst, Stuart and others. “Other countries are increasingly paying the price of the imbalances inside China,” Eskelund said. “There’s low demand in China, but at the same time manufacturing is growing.”

The EU saw a record €400 billion trade deficit with China in 2022, while Eskelund said there’s a continued decline in Chinese imports of European meat and dairy products.

“China should understand the EU has legitimate concerns on the long-term outlook for its industry and economy,” Eskelund added. “The main question is: Does China listen?”

TOP BRITISH MINISTER TO VISIT CHINA: British Foreign Secretary David Lammy is set to visit Beijing and Shanghai next week, Reuters reports. His visit comes ahead of the expected March completion of a review of the China strategy by the new Labour government, which seeks to take a less confrontational stance than the previous Conservative government. The review is cloaked in secrecy, and is supposed to guide the new government’s exact policies on China relations.

HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE

— STANFORD FACULTY FLAYS ‘CHINA INITIATIVE’ REVIVAL: A group of Stanford University faculty have united in opposition to Rep. Lance Gooden’s (R-Texas) bid to revive the Department of Justice’s “China Initiative” — the investigative program terminated in 2022 due to allegations of racial profiling. Gooden’s “Protect America’s Innovation and Economic Security from CCP Act of 2024,” which passed the House last month, would restore the DOJ program under the name the CCP Initiative. More than 165 Stanford professors said Gooden’s bill will “discourage the flow of exceptional talent to our country and … risk far greater damage than any plausible loss due to espionage or intellectual property theft,” in a letter to the leaders of the House and Senate published Tuesday.

Gooden is defiant. “Congratulations to whatever Chinese Communist Party agent led the charge to advance propaganda that harms Chinese Americans who would otherwise benefit from this bipartisan bill,” Gooden said in a statement.

TRANSLATING TAIWAN

— WHEN TAIWAN ASSASSINATED AN AMERICAN CITIZEN: China is now synonymous with transnational repression — efforts to harass and intimidate overseas critics. Back in the 80s Taiwan’s then-authoritarian government did likewise —and its toolkit included murder. This coming Tuesday will mark the 40^th anniversary of the killing of U.S. citizen Henry Liu in Daly City, California. Liu was a critic of Taipei’s regime and wrote a scathing biography of the island’s then-President Chiang Chien-kuo. An investigation revealed that Taiwan’s then intelligence chief, Vice Admiral Wang Hsi-ling, had ordered Liu’s killing by members of the island’s Bamboo Union crime syndicate. Taiwanese courts sentenced Wong and two gang members to life in prison for their role in the crime.

Congressional anger. The incident sparked rare criticism on Capitol Hill of Taiwan’s then-authoritarian KMT government. Then Rep. Stephen Solarz (D-N.Y.) called Liu’s murder “a frightening example of the long arm of Taiwan martial law tearing at the fabric of American democracy.” Solarz led a House Foreign Affairs Committee’s subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs hearing in 1985 titled “The Murder of Henry Liu.” The killing was “a wakeup call for the Reagan administration on the lack of democracy in Taiwan and the repressive character of the KMT regime,” said Gerrit van der Wees, a former Dutch diplomat and an expert on Taiwan’s evolution from authoritarian rule.

Dictator, interrupted. That backlash rocked the dictatorial rule of President Chiang. “Chiang fell into disgrace with the U.S. government, which intensified pressure for political change in his regime,” said Yu-jie Chen, assistant research professor at Academia Sinica’s Institutum Iurisprudentiae in Taipei. That change began 1987 when Chiang ended 40 years of martial law on the island.

Taiwan’s diplomatic outpost in Washington declined to comment.

HEADS UP

—THAT BIDEN-XI CALL REMAINS ELUSIVE: The outlook is murky for that long-promised call between President Joe Biden and China’s leader Xi Jinping. They last spoke in April and the administration has been teasing the possibility of a follow-up for weeks. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last month that he and his counterpart Wang Yi had “agreed on the importance of the leaders communicating, and I fully anticipate that we’ll see that in the week and months ahead.” Since then – crickets. The White House says it’s a scheduling challenge. “These are tough to schedule … particularly in this period there have been multiple holidays on both sides, and a lot of focus on domestic issues,” a senior administration official told reporters Wednesday. The key takeaway: The White House has “nothing to announce in terms of the timing for the call,” the official said.

HEADLINES

Journal of Democracy: China’s age of counter reform

Defense One: What reports got wrong about China’s ‘sunken nuclear submarine’

The Economist: China is using an “anaconda strategy” to squeeze Taiwan

Washington Post: China is rapidly building warships. Satellite images reveal the scale

ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS

WolfWarrior|Photo Credit: Lexington Books

The Book: Wolf Warrior Diplomacy and China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: From Policy to Podium

The Authors: Yaoyao Dai is an assistant professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte; Lu Wei Rose Luqiu is an associate professor of journalism at Hong Kong Baptist University

Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

What is the most important takeaway from your book?

China’s MFA and diplomats have adhered closely to the top leaders’ foreign-policy thinking, which has constantly evolved with the changing domestic environment and global power balance. The MFA’s embrace of combative diplomacy is the result of loyal diplomats following Xi’s demand that they show a “fighting spirit” when defending China’s core interests.

What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?

How little attention scholars and pundits have paid to the reactions to wolf warrior diplomacy in the Global South and countries that are not U.S. allies. China’s aggressive stance against the U.S. has resonated positively with some nations and populations disillusioned with the U.S.

In regions with high disenchantment with the U.S., China’s firm posture is sometimes interpreted as a sign of strength and a counterbalance to American influence.

The “wolf warrior” style of Chinese diplomacy has ebbed since the removal of the sharp-tongued Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian and the disappearance of former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang in 2023. Are China’s wolf warriors in retreat?

Wolf warrior diplomacy is not an individual diplomat’s style and choice but reflects the top leadership’s foreign policy. China’s wolf warrior diplomacy has evolved since 2023, likely reflecting a strategic recalibration rather than a complete retreat. (Chinese diplomats’) use of terms like “liang fu mian kong” (兩幅面孔 or “two-faced”) and “chang jue” (猖獗” —”rampant” or “unbridled”) indicates that on critical matters such as Taiwan, China remains unyielding.

Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at [email protected].

Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Koen Verhelst and digital producers Emma Cordover and Natália Delgado. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email us at [email protected] [email protected]