Hartford Athletic still searching for answers as 2024 rebuild continues

Halfway through the 2024 USL Championship season, Hartford Athletic has shown some promising results at times — especially in attack — but have been largely disappointing. It is certainly a vast improvement on last season, with the Latics having already surpassed their total win total in the 2023 league and also moving just one point away from their points total.

On the other hand, expectations for this team were much higher than that and the results so far have left everyone from manager Brendan Burke to the players and fans frustrated and looking for answers.

In preparation for a crucial second half of the season, here’s a look at what hasn’t quite gone according to plan for Hartford so far in Brendan Burke’s first year at the helm.

Perhaps most critically, the attack has failed. The Latics have been knocked out seven times in their 17 league games and have scored more than one goal on just four occasions. The club’s total of 15 goals is the lowest in the league.

If you remove penalties and look at offensive output on a match-adjusted basis, Hartford is one of four teams averaging less than a goal per game. A large part of the problem here is due to a lack of finishing.

Expected goals are certainly not a perfect measure of a team’s attacking performance, but on that basis the Latics sit almost exactly in the middle of the table (13th out of 24 teams). At the same time, attacking in the middle isn’t really what was expected from this side, and it’s fair to wonder why more chances aren’t being created.

The other significant issue is that Hartford has arguably had the worst defense in the league in the first half of the season. No team in either conference has a worse xGA (expected goals against), and only three — Miami FC, Rhode Island FC and FC Tulsa — have conceded more goals. The Latics often look extremely disorganized defensively, and it is only because of the wastefulness of their opponents that they haven’t conceded more goals at this point.

If we take the attack without punch and the defence in combination, this means the Latics have the second worst xGD (expected goal difference) and the third worst xGD (expected goal difference). Topical goal difference in the league. The position in the table is not surprising given those realities, even if it does not resemble pre-season expectations.

So what exactly went wrong? Defense is perhaps the most explainable piece of the puzzle, as there were question marks over several players entering the season. Thomas Vancaeyezeele and Jordan Scarlett returned from long injuries, Rece Buckmaster was benched last season by a Memphis 901 FC team that improved almost immediately, and Triston Hodge was one of the few returnees from last season’s poor defensive unit. A lot had to change right that this unit is even average, and very little has gone right.

The plan seems to have been for a defence of four – Hodge, Farrell, Scarlett and Buckmaster – but injuries and international commitments meant that the group rarely played together, with only Scarlett ever present when healthy and available. Vancayaezeele did well enough in the early stages of the season, but has since been moved to defensive midfield, with mixed results.

On-loan Joey Akpunonu has been in and out of the line-up, both at right-back and in the middle, again with mixed results. Samadia has been getting more minutes of late, but it is probably too early to say much about his performances. Younes Boudadi — who was acquired in a player swap with Indy Eleven on June 14 — has been predictably dynamic going forward and beatable on defense. In short, there’s barely a defensive player on the roster who’s shown any consistency, and the constant lineup changes have made it very difficult for any group of players to really develop an understanding.

Hartford’s punchless offense is harder to fathom. Coming into this season, the roster was loaded with forwards who had shown they could make a difference in this league, but their on-field production had been woefully lacking, and two of those players — Romario Williams and Enoch Mushagalusa — have already been shown the door.

Part of the problem on offense was that the pieces ultimately didn’t quite mesh. Romario Williams has been one of the league’s most efficient forwards throughout his career, but seemed out of place in Hartford, lacking the dynamic pressure that Burke’s system requires.

Mamadou Dieng’s lack of scoring is concerning, but it’s no coincidence that some of the most fluid attacking football the Latics have played this season has been played with him in the middle. It’s too early to say what the extended period will show – and the goals will have to come more regularly at some point – but the 19-year-old’s ability to press, win the ball, hold up play and leave the other attackers free are things this attack desperately needs, and have lacked so far this season.

Another part of the offense’s problems is that Michee Ngalina hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. The scoring has been there — his numbers in that regard compare favorably to his two best seasons in Colorado Springs, which marked him as one of the league’s most dangerous offensive pieces — but his creative numbers have declined.

At his most dynamic, Ngalina creates as much for other players as he does for himself. However, he has just two assists so far this season, matching his worst USL Championship season as a provider. Some of this isn’t down to him; there’s a lack of movement elsewhere in the attack that compounds the problem and causes opposing defenses to focus on Ngalina and limit his effectiveness.

The midfield is a bit stiff and the full-backs haven’t consistently made the overlapping runs that loosen things up, meaning Ngalina (and Beckford) can feel extremely isolated in attack. At the same time, there is a need for players like Ngalina to perform like stars; the is A team sport, but the best players set the tone.

Is there hope for improvement in the second half of the season? There is always hope in lower league football; it seems almost certain that at least one team will collapse between now and October, and teams that have struggled in the mid-season in previous seasons, such as Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising FC, have won titles. But more realistically, a few things need to happen for this side to start posting more positive results.

First, sorting out the defense. It may well be that there is no combination of players on the roster that Good defence, but outside of additional transfers, it is crucial to commit to a specific back four so that they can develop an understanding and give them the best chance of being the best group they can be. If Boudadi, Akpononu, Scarlett and Samadia are the parts of a back line that Brendan Burke has the most confidence in, they need to be given time to gel. A marginal improvement may be all that is possible, but a marginal improvement may be all that this team needs to turn a few losses into draws and a few draws into wins.

Secondly, the attack needs to get going. There have been bright spots this season, with Dieng, Beckford and Ngalina proving themselves to be an effective front three when playing together. However, like the defence, this group needs more competitive minutes. The attacking play in the first half against Charleston was encouraging and reminiscent of the assertive approach the Latics showed against Memphis earlier in the season – both games featured the same front three.

Finally, there is a desperate need for a more dynamic dimension in midfield. Marcus Epps can occasionally feature here but is honestly better suited out wide, and of the players on the roster, only Danny Barrera can really provide a more creative option. At this stage of his career, however, he is extremely limited in other aspects of his game. This reality would suggest that the best solution is an addition to the roster, but that is easier said than done, and so there will likely be a lot of pressure on Jay Chapman and Anderson Asiedu to produce a bit more attacking verve.

Ultimately, Brendan Burke’s teams have lived and died by being able to play attacking football. In the past, he has been able to get the best out of his players at this stage of the game and cover for weaknesses elsewhere. If that can happen here, and if the Latics can go from being one of the worst attacking teams in the league to being a mid-table side, then this is probably a team that will be good enough to make the play-offs. That seems like a plausible outcome, but a lot has to go right for that to happen, and Hartford have very little margin for error at the moment.

Either way, one thing remains true: the Latics are heading into the second half of the season in a turnaround. They currently sit eight points adrift of the play-off positions, with at least a game in hand over every team above them. It’s not the biggest mountain to climb, of course, and it’s likely that a points total in the low 40s will be enough to make the play-offs, but still: if things continue like this, Hartford fans will have to wait another year for a play-off game.

The road begins Saturday night as Hartford travels to Pittsburgh for the second meeting between the two teams this season. The first produced a 2-0 score in favor of Burke’s men at Trinity Health Stadium.