NASCAR picks: 2024 Brickyard 400 predictions, betting odds

The NASCAR Cup Series has five races remaining before the playoffs begin and the Brickyard 400 represents one of the marquee events on the schedule. It’s the first time the race from the famous Indianapolis Motor Speedway will be held since 2020. From 2021 to 2023, the Indianapolis race was moved to a road course, but now it’s back on the 2.5-mile oval.

For years, the team from Hendrick Motorsports dominated on this track with Jeff Gordon (five wins) and Jimmie Johnson (four wins) having success from the inaugural race in 1994 until Johnson’s last win in 2012. Since then, Hendricks has only won once when Kasey Kahne took the checkered flag in 2017.

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Brickyard 400: NASCAR Cup Series odds, preview and picks

There has been a trend of repeat winners in the Brickyard 400. Johnson won it three times over four years from 2006 to 2009, Kyle Busch won in 2015 and 2016 — when he was a member of the Joe Gibbs Racing team — and Kevin Harvick won in 2019 and 2020 when he was racing full-time for Stewart-Haas.

Busch (+2800) is in the field but doesn’t have the same ride he did eight years ago. Brad Keselowski (+1300) is another former winner in the field.

The road race at Indianapolis, officially called the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard, is an event many fans would rather forget. However, there is some good intel that can be pulled from it. Tyler Reddick (+400) won it in 2022 and he was top in qualifying this weekend, putting him in a co-favorite spot with Denny Hamlin.

Let’s take a look at the odds for the Top 10 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series standings now that we’ve gone over recent trends:

Odds to win the Brickyard 400 from Indianapolis

Denny Hamlin +400

Tyler Reddick +400

Kyle Larson +500

Chase Elliott +750

William Byron +800

Martin Truex Jr. +1200

Ryan Blaney +1300

Brad Keselowski +1300

Christopher Bell +2000

Alex Bowman +2500

The history of repeat and multi-time winners in the race tells me this is a track looking for a new master. Reddick could certainly be that driver and at the least, he deserves to be a part of any bets for a Top 3 or Top 5 finish. Hendricks Motorsports’ great history here puts Elliott and Larson in the mix, as well.

Best Bets: Reddick to win (+400), Elliott to win (+750), Blaney to win (+1300)

Best Bets to finish Top 3: Byron (+105), Ty Gibbs (+230)

Best Bets to finish Top 5: Bell (+260), Joey Logano (+280), Busch (+360)

Best Longshot Bet: Michael McDowell (+3000), Bubba Wallace (+4500)