Group of 5 College Football Preview: Which Teams Have the Best CFP Odds?

The upcoming college football season is a historic year for fans of teams in the Group of Five (G5) conferences: Conference USA, American, Sun Belt, Mountain West and MAC.

After decades of knowing that even an undefeated season wouldn’t be enough to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff (the 2021 Cincinnati Bearcats are the only G5 team to ever reach the CFP), college football’s new 12-team playoff format includes an automatic berth for the highest-ranked team from the five G5 conference champions in 2024.

The heavy C-USA favorite, Liberty, has the shortest odds to reach the expanded CFP, but bookmakers consider several other teams as contenders, including three from the AAC, two from the Mountain West and two from the Sun Belt.

Whoever wins the MAC (the preseason favorites are Miami (Ohio) and Toledo) has no realistic chance of making the CFP this year, according to most bookmakers.

It’s worth noting, however, that DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM all list Toledo and Miami (Ohio) at +2000 or higher, while Caesars lists both teams at +1200.

CFP odds for the top group of five contenders

Below are the odds, as of July 22, for the eight G5 teams with the best chance of a CFP spot.

Based on the odds in the table above, the G5 spot in the 2024 CFP will depend on a battle between Liberty, Boise State, and Memphis.

The Liberty Flames have the shortest odds of the three, largely due to an extremely favorable schedule. However, the Broncos and Tigers also appear to have serious chances at the CFP.

Liberty – Best CFP Odds: +470 (FanDuel)

Liberty football has quickly become a staple of Group of Five programs since its inaugural season in 2018. The Flames won at least eight games in four straight seasons from 2019-22 under current Auburn coach Hugh Freeze, and they are coming off an impressive 2023 season under Jamey Chadwell.

Last year, Liberty went 13-1 in his first season under the former Coastal Carolina coach, with his only loss coming to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. The 2024 team returns stars at QB and RB in Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley. They should have no trouble lighting up opposing defenses, just as they did last year, when they helped Liberty average over 38 points per game.

How much the defense improves after a number of off-season transfers will likely determine whether Liberty can reach the CFP or actually challenge a top 10 opponent in such a match.

Liberty’s non-conference trip to Sun Belt rival Appalachian State on Sept. 28 figures to be the toughest game on the Flames’ 2024 regular-season schedule.

Boise State — Best CFP Odds: +500 (BetMGM)

Memphis, the AAC favorite, gets more attention (at least on the East Coast), but it’s Boise State that has the least chance of making the CFP after Liberty.

One of the most underrated players in the country entering this season is Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty, who has 19 total TDs (14 rushing, 569 receiving) and 1,916 yards from scrimmage (1,347 rushing, 569 receiving) in 2023.

The 2023 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year award was a big reason Boise State bounced back from a 3-4 start to the season to finish 8-6 (6-2 Mt. West) and win the league with a 44-20 victory over UNLV in the conference finals.

Boise’s strong finish last year came after it fired coach Andy Avalos in November with the team at 5-5 on the season. Longtime Boise assistant Spencer Danielson led Boise to a 3-1 record the rest of the way, and the 35-year-old was rewarded with the full-time job a day after the MWC Championship win over UNLV.

A year after taking on Washington, UCF and Memphis in non-conference play, the Broncos once again face a tough schedule outside the Mountain West in 2024. The schedule includes an early-season trip to Oregon, plus home games against former Pac-12 teams Washington State and Oregon State.

With former USC quarterback Malachi Nelson leading a veteran roster that performed strongly under a then-interim coach, the Broncos appear to be a real threat to Liberty.

Memphis — Best CFP Odds: +700 (DraftKings)

As noted in our rundown of the biggest outsiders to reach the CFP, Memphis should be a tough prospect in the AAC.

Like Boise State, Memphis has a chance to differentiate itself early on, as it visits Florida State on September 14. A Memphis upset in Tallahassee (and/or a hypothetical Boise State win over Oregon) would be a huge early blow to G5 CFP favorite Liberty’s playoff chances.

But even if Memphis falls short against the Seminoles, it could still have a good reason to finish higher than Liberty at the end of the season if coach Ryan Silverfield’s team gets its act together.

If UTSA (9-4 in 2023) and/or Tulane (11-3 in ’23) live up to expectations and Memphis can win the AAC (with wins over those schools and the lone loss a road game against Florida State), the Tigers could absolutely earn a CFP bid over Liberty, even if the Flames are undefeated.

Those are some ifs and buts, but with an offense that boasts All-AAC-caliber players at the positions of QB (Seth Henigan), WR (Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee) and RB (Mario Anderson), anything is within reach for Silverfield and Co.

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