Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction and Picks for July 23, 2024

Posted on by Vaseline

Pitching Matchup

St. Louis: Lance Lynn (RHP) 5-4, 4.39 ERA

Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (RHP) 6-0, 1.90 ERA

The St. Louis Cardinals are on a roll as they sit second in the NL Central with a 52-48 record so far. Veteran right-hander Lance Lynn takes the mound here coming off a win over the Chicago Cubs, throwing six innings and allowing two runs on five hits with two walks and six strikeouts.

The Pittsburgh Pirates climb up the NL Central standings as they sit in third place with a 51-49 record. Rookie righty Paul Skenes is on the mound coming off a win against the Milwaukee Brewers, where he threw seven innings without a hit with one hit by pitch, one walk and 11 strikeouts.

Cardinals find out

The St. Louis Cardinals are an average offensive team, as they rank 18th in the sport with a .698 team OPS while scoring 4.16 runs per game. They are more of a station-to-station team, as they rank 19th in the sport with 60 steals while being caught 17 times. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt hits poorly, as he has a .662 OPS with 14 home runs, 38 RBIs, 48 ​​runs scored, and six steals without being caught.

Lance Lynn has been brutal this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he sits in the 10th percentile in barrel percentage, 15th percentile in xERA, 19th percentile in xBA, and 30th percentile in chase percentage. He carries a six-pitch arsenal (fastball, cutter, sinker, slider, changeup, sweeper) and relies on his fastball, as it is thrown 46.8% of the time. Lynn has faced the Pirates once this season in a no-decision, as he has thrown 4.1 innings, allowing three runs on four hits with three walks and five strikeouts.

Injury Report for St. Louis

Pitcher Steven Matz: Back (OUT)

Pitcher Kenyan Middleton: Forearm (OUT)

Pitcher Riley O’Brien: Elbow (OUT)

Shortstop Tommy Edman: Wrist (OUT)

Pitcher Drew Rom: Shoulder (OUT)

Pirates look like a playoff team

The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled at the plate, as the team ranks 27th in the MLB with a .670 team OPS while averaging 4.16 runs scored per game. The lineup hasn’t provided much pop, as they rank 23rd in the bigs with 101 total home runs thus far. Left fielder Bryan Reynolds has been hitting well, as he has an .838 OPS with 18 homers, 61 RBIs, 39 runs scored, and five steals on five attempts.

Paul Skenes has been incredible this season according to his Baseball Savant page , as he ranks in the 97th percentile in strikeout percentage, 96th percentile in xERA, 90th percentile in xBA, and 89th percentile in walk percentage. Skenes has five different pitches (fastball, sinker, slider, curveball, changeup) and his sinker has been dominant, as he holds a .157 batting average and .193 slugging percentage. He has faced the Cardinals once this season and was a non-factor after throwing 6.1 scoreless innings, giving up five hits with zero walks and striking out eight.

Injury Report for Pittsburgh

Pitcher Bailey Falter: Arm (OUT)

Pitcher Daulton Jefferies: Elbow (OUT)

Pitcher Jared Jones: Back (OUT)

Pitcher Hunter Stratton: Tricep (OUT)

Pitcher Ryan Borucki: Wrist (OUT)

Pitcher Martin Perez: Lies (OUT)

Pitcher Dauri Moreta: Elbow (OUT)

Pitcher Johan Oviedo: Elbow (OUT)

Catcher Endy Rodriguez: Elbow (OUT)

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Judgement:

There is a significant gap between how these starting pitchers have performed in their previous seven starts. Lance Lynn is 3-1 with a 6.43 WERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 35.0 innings while Paul Skenes is 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA and an 8:59 walk-to-strikeout ratio in this series. Both teams have been terrible with runners in scoring position, but there is still a difference here as St. Louis is 29th with a .640 team OPS in those at-bats while Pittsburgh is 27th with a .678 team OPS. Root for the Pittsburgh Pirates to win this one.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates -172

Full game total choice

Judgement:

These teams have been strong offensively in the month of July, as the Cardinals have scored 5.18 runs in their 17 games, while the Pirates have averaged 4.88 runs in their 17 games. Away, Lance Lynn is 1-4 with a 5.36 ERA and .297 batting average against in 43.2 innings (nine starts), while Paul Skenes has been less effective at PNC Park, as he is 3-0 in six starts with a 2.83 EA and 1.20 WHIP in 35.0 innings. All in all, go for OVER 7.5 RUNS in this game.

Forecast: MORE THAN 7.5

Written by
Arthur Reyes, “Arthur Reyes”

After playing sports for most of high school, middle school, and college, Arthur has been writing about sports for almost a decade. With his years of experience, he has had a very successful career in the gambling world. Arthur has taken his talent to StatSalt and Winners & Whiners and has been an integral part of our team. Make sure to follow Arthur every day. You won’t be disappointed.

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