Iowa has had a record-breaking year for tornadoes. Will fall be worse?

Preliminary tornado reports for 2024 are already above the historical national average, with only 7 states in the US reporting zero tornadoes so far. How does Iowa fair?

Texas is leading the list with 142 reported tornadoes this year, followed by Nebraska at 129 and Iowa in third place with 126 preliminary tornadoes reported by the National Weather Service.

Why are tornadoes so active in Iowa this year?

Tornadoes in the Plains and Midwest often develop in discrete supercells, AccuWeather said in a news release, meaning storms can grow and mature without needing too much space or energy. Supercell tornadoes are also capable of becoming long-track tornadoes which can travel for 50-200 continuous miles and cause catastrophic damage, like the one recently seen in Greenfield. AccuWeather meteorologists also said that Hurricane Beryl was a prolific tornado producer.

Opinion: 2024 violent tornado season is one of the most active on record. A meteorologist explains.

Iowa has been in an unfortunate sweet spot this year, Dan DePodwin, senior director of forecasting operations at AccuWeather said.

“The weather pattern this year just really supported a storm track that was sort of through the through the Plains into the upper Midwest,” he said. “You had that clash of air masses between colder, drier air coming down from Canada and and warmer moist air coming in from the Gulf of Mexico. Combine that with significant changing in wind direction and we have many days that were pretty conducive for tornadoes. “

When was the last time Iowa had more than 100 tornadoes in a year?

Finalized tornado numbers don’t come in until the end of each year, DePodwin said, but 2024 is on pace — based on preliminary reports — to be one of, if not the, most active year for tornadoes in Iowa.

Here are the last few times Iowa reached more than 100 tornadoes in a year, according to NWS:

2024: 126 as of July 22, 2024
2021: 121
2004: 121
2008: 105
2001: 105

More: How do the most recent Iowa tornadoes compare to the state’s deadliest storms?

Expect a less active fall, but plenty more opportunities for tornadoes in Iowa

After plenty of severe weather outbreaks this spring, 2024 is already the second most active year for tornadoes in the US, following 2011, where 2,250 preliminary reports were filed.

AccuWeather meteorologists said it is unlikely that the number of tornadoes reported this year could outpace the record-shattering year of 2011, but the possibility isn’t zero.

DePodwin said there are still a couple of peaks left for severe weather seasons, like hurricane season activity in mid-August, which could bring more tornado threats this summer and fall. Or, the secondary peak for tornado season in Iowa, as DePodwin called it, usually in October and November.

“It shouldn’t be as active as it has been, but there’s still a few more opportunities for tornadoes throughout the rest of the year,” DePodwin said.

Victoria Reyna-Rodriguez is a general assignment reporter for the Register. Reach her at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter @VictoriaReynaR.