The Harris Effect in Michigan Could Mean Most Democrats Going to the Lower Vote

By TYLER SCHNEIDER

Judith Daubenmier got her first dose of political activism when she signed up for John Kerry’s presidential campaign in 2004.

In May, the Livingston County Democratic Party chairwoman earned her first selection as a Democratic delegate for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, which includes Ingham County. That means she’ll vote for the party’s presidential nominee during the virtual roll call for next month’s national convention in Chicago.

Until President Biden withdrew, Daubenmier was confident she would support him.

“I felt sad for him and had a lot of empathy for what he was going through and what it must have been like to make that decision,” she said. “It took me a while to process that — but then I started thinking about the future.”

What might the political future look like for Michigan residents?

Assuming Vice President Kamala Harris secures the Democratic nomination, Matt Grossman, a political science professor at Michigan State University, said the reversal would not necessarily put the state’s 15 electoral votes out of reach of either party.

“To the extent that Biden had a relative advantage over Harris, it would have been among older white voters, of which Michigan has far more than other states,” Grossman said. “So the change doesn’t necessarily help Michigan as much as it does elsewhere. And there’s certainly still a risk of loss for Democrats.”

The potential trade-off lies in Harris’s expected appeal among younger and minority voters. In February, 13% of the state’s Democratic primary voters chose the “non-committed” option to protest Biden’s handling of the Israeli war. Many of those votes came from Michigan’s 500,000 Arab Americans — the most of any state — and college-age adults.

Thasin Sardar, a board member of the Islamic Society of Greater Lansing, said Harris’s expected candidacy could negate the protest votes.

“I do see some disengagement from some of those who were motivated to join the movement not just because of Gaza, but because Biden was not a winning candidate,” he said. “I’m pretty sure they all care about Gaza, but I think they also see Harris as a strong contender.”

Before Biden withdrew, some thought he was also losing ground among black voters, long considered one of his strongest electoral demographics. Could that leak be thwarted with Harris — who is half-Black and half-Indian — at the top of the ticket?

Daubenmier thinks so. But it’s too early to tell for Corwin Smidt, associate professor of political science at Michigan State University.

“That’s a group you would expect her to be able to garner support, but there’s some concern about how much of a connection she’ll have with black voters in Michigan, who tend to be older as well,” Smidt said.

But perhaps she will gain new followers elsewhere.

“There is an Asian-American community in the suburbs of Detroit that seems a little less united politically,” he added. “The fact that she is half Indian-American could resonate with some of those groups that you don’t normally see as active in Michigan politics,” Smidt said.

Despite these unknowns, Grossman predicted that Michigan’s voting coalition would be “90% to 95% the same.”

Smidt agreed, but added that the implications of Biden’s withdrawal may be more visible in who does and doesn’t represent Michigan next year.

“When it comes to Michigan, it’s not like this is a huge change, but it does shake up the chess pieces or the type of communication that you see,” Smidt said.

The future of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is one of the pieces that may be in play. While Whitmer has twice indicated she is not interested in becoming Harris’ running mate, her potential to turn a key swing state blue means she will remain in the conversation.

“We have evidence that home state VP candidates matter, but we’re talking about a very small 1% or so,” Grossman explained. “If Whitmer were on that list, that would still make a specific difference in Michigan. Now, there are a lot of other actors on that list, so it’s more than likely that it goes to someone else.”

If Whitmer stays, Harris’ rise could still impact Michigan’s future, including the race for Michigan’s 7th U.S. House District, which includes Ingham County. Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. and Republican Tom Barrett are running to succeed three-term Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The latter, a Democrat, is expected to face former Rep. Mike Rogers for the U.S. Senate, pending the outcome of the Aug. 6 primary.

According to a poll conducted July 8-11 by independent firm Noble Predictive Insights, Barrett leads Hertel 48% to 41%, with 11% of the survey’s 532 respondents still undecided. The same polls suggested the Senate race would be much closer, with Rogers leading Slotkin by one point at 48%, with 4% undecided.

Grossman said Harris’s increased popularity among younger and minority voters could change the course of these lower-level ballot boxes. For one, her candidacy could spur greater turnout, which would theoretically strengthen Democrats.

“In general, there is an extremely strong relationship between the presidential election and the votes for all other party offices on the same day. It may be two or three points, but that can be important in determining the winner of that election,” Grossman said.

Now that Biden is gone, the chances that Hertel will be able to attract younger or moderate voters are also greater, Smidt said.

“There’s a kind of social media cache with Kamala Harris that could mobilize younger people more,” Smidt said. “Because this is a split district, only the voters of Michigan State could be a deciding factor.”

Still, Smidt sees the Senate race in Michigan as “more important than the presidential election.”

“You have Slotkin, who has some vulnerabilities in her base on Israel and Gaza, and Rogers, who is seen in some ways as bowing to Trump. To me, that race has a lot more to do with the future of the state party and what both parties look like in 2026 and 2028 than it does with the presidential election,” Smidt said.

Grossman said the outcome of that race could ultimately be similar to that of the presidential election.

“If it were literally 50-50 in the presidential race, you would still expect Slotkin to win, but not by much. She needs the Democrats to win Michigan or come close to it,” he said.

Sen. Sarah Anthony (D-Lansing) believes Democrats can gain a lot by focusing on issues like inflation, the cost of living, the environment and reproductive rights.

“When Harris came to the state, it was generally about reproductive health care, which was a defining issue two years ago when the Democratic trifecta was elected and continues to be at the top of the agenda for Michigan residents, particularly women,” Anthony said.

Daubenmier agreed, saying she hopes Michigan voters will get behind Harris.

“Some people will be more interested in the campaign now because they wanted to see a new face. They wanted to see someone younger, and I think that will help us a lot,” she said.

—TYLER SCHNEIDER