Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Betting Tips & Preview

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Data

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Location: Truist Park
• Starting pitchers:

  • Hunter Greene – Red
  • Max Fried – Braves

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves odds

Implied Win % in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to measure the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sports betting.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the probability of a team winning a match or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds will face off at Truist Park on July 24, 2024, in Game 1 of a doubleheader. The Braves, currently sitting at 54-45 and having an above-average season, are looking to bounce back after a 4-1 loss to the Reds on July 22. The Reds, sitting at 48-53 and having a below-average season, were able to secure a win despite being underdogs in the previous game.

Atlanta’s Allan Winans will take the mound and has had a rough start to the season with a 10.80 ERA. However, his 5.73 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and may be able to improve in the future. Winans will need to take advantage of Cincinnati’s high strikeout rate (5th most in MLB) to find success. On the other hand, the Reds will be dealing with Frankie Montas, an average pitcher by advanced stats with a 4.85 ERA in 18 starts. Montas is a high walker (9.9 BB%), but the Braves’ low walk offense (#6 fewest walks) may not be able to exploit that weakness effectively.

Offensively, Atlanta has some clear advantages. They rank 9th in home runs and have the firepower to change the game with one strike. Marcell Ozuna, their standout hitter, has been on a roll, hitting .500 and posting an OPS of 1.491 this past week. In contrast, Cincinnati’s offense, which ranks 27th in batting average, will have to rely on Elly De La Cruz, who was their best hitter this past week, hitting .313 and posting an OPS of .984.

The Braves’ bullpen, ranked 6th, should have a significant lead over the Reds’ bullpen, ranked 26th. This could be crucial in a close game. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves are favored with a 56% chance to win, slightly higher than their implied odds of 55%. The Reds’ odds are estimated at 44%, which is very close to their implied odds.

Both teams will be looking to build momentum heading into the second game of the doubleheader and this promises to be an exciting matchup, especially given the Braves’ narrow lead in the preseason and the strength of their bullpen.

Short summary of Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the industry leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Stuart Fairchild, Will Benson).

• Teams with multiple batters with high strikeouts make it much easier for the opponent to score strikeouts

Atlanta Braves quick shots:

Of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or in this case allowing) hits and runs.

According to the industry-leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen is rated as the 7th best of any team in the Major League.

• Most bettors only look at the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen secretly makes the opposing team more difficult to compete against and suppresses runs in a game.

Game Trends

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final score: Cincinnati Reds 4.79 vs. Atlanta Braves 4.74

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