Declines in the city’s school sectors, public, private and charter schools

Here’s what the reports found:

What happened to the registrations?

It’s not just Boston Public Schools. The city has lost more than 20 percent of its students in public, private and charter schools over the past three decades. Private and Catholic school enrollments have plummeted, charter school enrollments have been capped, and despite fluctuations, BPS has lost nearly 15,000 students since its most recent peak in 2001.

But the report also goes back further, to 1940, when BPS had more than twice as many students as it does today. From 1950 to 1980, the city lost hundreds of thousands of residents, due to suburbanization, white flight in response to school desegregation, and other trends common to urban areas across the country. But even as the city’s resident population has grown since 1980, its student population has not.

“That longer-term context puts this in even sharper focus,” said Luc Schuster, executive director of Boston Indicators. “Boston is a city that was once home to a lot of people, many more families than is currently the case. … The city’s population has really increased again, but the number of school-age children has continued to decline.”

Where are all the children?

The researchers point to the low water level in Massachusetts and Boston’s declining fertility rates and sky-high housing market, one of the most expensive in the country, are seen as some of the culprits for the shrinking student population.

But the data also strongly suggest that concerns about school quality — often motivated by racial bias — are driving the enrollment declines: In recent years, the city has consistently had more children ages 0-4 compared to those ages 5-9. In 2022, the report found, there will be about 31,000 children too young to attend school in Boston, and about 26,000 children ages 5-9.

“That shift really suggests that one of the most important factors on parents’ minds is concern about the quality of schools,” Schuster said.

Specifically, white families appear to be the ones leaving the city when their children reach school age: while about a third of children under 5 are white, less than a quarter of school-age children are. Instead, black and Latino children make up the largest share of school-age Bostonians.

Research shows that perceptions of school quality are often determined by the racial makeup of students, with white schools being seen as better, rather than the educational characteristics of the schools.

The same trend applies to income: children from families that earn less than the city income adapted to the size of the household median income of about $62,000 make up 70 percent of school-going children, but less than half of all other city residents.

In a future report, Schuster said, Boston Indicators plans to examine trends in Boston’s inner suburbs, such as Chelsea, Milton and Somerville. Some, like Newton, are struggling with their own enrollment declines.

Who’s left?

As a result of the departure of white and upper-income families, the vast majority of the city’s public school students — about 81 percent — are high-needs students, meaning they are low-income, English language learners, or have a disability. They have also long been predominantly Black and Latino. (Demographics (Information is not available for private and parochial schools.)

What do they expect for the future?

The report finds that enrollment declines are likely to continue into the future, as the youngest grades have the lowest enrollment: about 12,000 students in kindergarten through second grade, compared to about 15,000 students their age in 2015 and more than 18,000 high school students now.

“K-2 declines are particularly concerning because they are the strongest predictor of future patterns,” the report notes. “Smaller K-2 cohorts mean fewer students moving through the grades.”

The trend could be reversed, Schuster said. Universal pre-K, which has grown to more than 3,000 students, could eventually help the city retain more students.

“There has been a little bit of an uptick in K-2 enrollment after the pandemic,” he said. “Maybe that’s more than just a rebound and that could continue.”

Schuster said local and national efforts to build more housing could help some families return to Boston.

Still, he said there is another factor that will likely continue to depress enrollment: “I think it’s important not to lose sight of the fact that the birth rate continues to decline nationwide.”

Christopher Huffaker can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @huffakingit.