2024 Fantasy Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers

Welcome to the Fantasy Forecast series! We at Dynasty Nerds are going to be taking each NFL team and analyzing the players on that team. We’ll talk about their value for the upcoming season and give Dynasty advice on what to do with that player if they are.

What an offseason it has been in Pittsburgh. The offense has undergone a massive overhaul, sending out Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Diontae Johnson. The front office has brought in a lot of new faces and there is new hope that this stagnant offense can get over the hump and be very productive in 2024.

Quarterbacks

Russel Wilson

What a few years it’s been. Wilson’s two seasons in Denver have been a complete disaster. Denver sat him out the final two games of the 2023 season due to “financial flexibility.” From that moment on, it was clear he was leaving Denver. He signed a one-year, $1.2 million contract with the Steelers. He opens camp as the starting quarterback.

In five seasons as either OC or head coach, an Arthur Smith offense has never finished higher than 19th in passing attempts and 16th in passing yards. In two seasons, his teams have been eighth in passing touchdowns. In contrast, Smith’s offense has been in the top 10 in rushing yards four out of five seasons and has been in the top 10 in rushing touchdowns three of those seasons. His offense is heavily skewed toward rushing. Coupled with the dismissal of Diontae Johnson, I expect the overall passing attempt to take a step back. I expect 70% of the passing game to go to the running backs and George Pickens.

I’m only interested in Wilson in Superflex leagues. Based on recent trades on DynastyGM, his current value is around a second round pick, which is a perfect investment for a prospect looking to shore up depth. However, there’s a decent chance he ends up splitting time with the next guy discussed.

Justin Velden

Like Wilson, Fields is in a new place. In the final year of his rookie deal, the Steelers declined his fifth-year option. Fields has a one-year, prove-it deal with the Steelers. This won’t be the season he proves his passing prowesit. If he does play, he’ll fall back on (or the OC will let him fall back on) what he does best: rushing. Fields has averaged 6.2 yards per rush attempt in his three seasons. His rushing ability is the only reason he’s been relevant to fantasy at all.

If I have Fields in Superflex, I’ll hold him. If not, I’ll walk away and look at other options. I don’t think this is a situation where he can turn his career around.

Backrunners

Najee Harris

Harris also saw his fifth-year option declined. He’s in the final year of his rookie deal and hopes to cash in next season with an impressive 2024 campaign. Enter ARTHUR SMITH. This guy likes to run the ball. Everyone knows it. In the five seasons that Smith has been either offensive coordinator or head coach, his team has ranked first, second, third, and 10th in rushing attempts for four seasons.

Harris is averaging just under four yards per carry in his NFL career and has been a poster boy for health, having not missed a game in the three seasons since being drafted 24th overall and has at least 1,000 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on a season.

However, Harris’ value has plummeted due to the emergence of Jaylen Warren in the passing game. It appears that Harris will be relegated to rushing for next season, but given his value, he’s a player I have my eye on. Harris seems to be going for a late first-round pick plus a later pick in recent DynastyGM trades. There are also a few trades where it looks like an owner is trying to get whatever they can for Harris. If this is an option with a fearful owner in your league, take advantage and acquire Harris, who should be a fringe RB2 candidate this season.

Jaylen Warren

Warren is an extremely interesting player. He went undrafted and joined the Steelers in 2022. He ate up Harris’ receiving duties from the start. Last season, Warren looked like the better running back, averaging 5.3 yards per rush attempt for 784 yards and catching 61 passes for 310 yards. However, he only had four total touchdowns. He was ranked RB22, one spot ahead of Harris. If Warren had scored two more touchdowns, he would have been ranked RB17. The production is there; he just needs more touchdowns.

Warren is rated around a future second. With this kind of production, if I want to compete this season, I’ll try to acquire his services. He’s the kind of player that wins championships.

Wide receivers

The Carolina Panthers have traded for perennial target hog Diontae Johnson. For a player who averaged over eight targets and five catches per game in his five seasons, he leaves a big piece of the offensive pie on the table for the remaining wide receivers.

George Pickens

Pickens enters the season as the de facto WR1 in this offense. He has elite contested catching skills, leading the league in Yards Per Reception in 2023 with 18.1. Additionally, he was eighth in the league in YPR in 2022 with 15.4. Pickens doesn’t need a lot of receptions to have a big game, which is great news for fantasy owners. With Johnson gone, his targets will go up, making his fantasy production numbers increasingly better. In 2023, he finished as the WR30 in PPR leagues with 208.8 points. However, he only had five touchdowns all season, which should improve this coming season.

Pickens is currently rated at WR25 in dynasty leagues, and I personally feel that is appropriate until we see what this offense can do. I would gladly give a first and second choice to have him on my team.

Roman Wilson

Wilson was a third-round pick in last year’s NFL Draft. He played four seasons at Michigan, catching 48 balls for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns in their 2023 National Championship season. Wilson led the team in every receiving category except longest reception. He’s fast and elusive, but he landed on a fairly thin depth chart — Wilson fits in as the WR2 on this team. I’d temper expectations, though. Smith is the offensive coordinator and he’s extremely run-heavy.

He’s currently rated WR53 on DynastyGM, which feels fitting. The only wide receiver around him that I’ve rated higher than him is Jahan Dotson.

Wilson’s value is about two seconds or as a compensatory piece in a big wide receiver trade. I believe Wilson is a HOLD if I own him and a WAIT AND ZEE if I don’t.

From Jefferson

Jefferson is just a guy on this team. He’s not going to contribute enough to the offense to be fantasy relevant.

The best of the rest

Calvin Austin is the only player of note. He enters his second season as a WR4 on this team. With Arthur Smith at the helm, he is just a taxi squad/bottom-of-the-line player who can develop in the future. I wouldn’t consider him a priority, given the circumstances.

Tight ends

Pat Vrijermuth

Pat Freiermuth has had an interesting career in the NFL thus far. He was drafted in 2021 and was a TE13, TE7 in 2022, and TE29 in 2023. The 2023 season was injury-plagued and he only started in 12 games. Personally, I’ve been a fan of Freiermuth since he entered the league. I think he’s the perfect tight end to have as a backup. He offers upside but is still cheaper than others in his range.

His current value is TE17. I would rather own Freiermuth than the following players ahead of him:

I think trading Luke Musgrave for Freiermuth plus is an interesting move. Musgrave is a hot commodity these days and Freiermuth’s value has dropped a bit. If I could get a late second round pick on top of Freiermuth, I would happily trade Luke Musgrave.

Darnell Washington/Connor Heyward

Neither player is relevant to fantasy play and it’s probably best to leave them on the waiver wire.

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