Trudeau must face two more midterm election tests in September

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OTTAWA – Voters will have two more chances to judge the Liberal government after the prime minister called by-elections in two constituencies in September.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced two by-elections, one in the Elmwood-Transcona district of Winnipeg and one in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun district of Montreal. Election day is set for September 16.

Former Justice Minister David Lametti resigned in February, clearing the way for Montreal’s by-elections. Trudeau had 180 days to call the election and waited until almost the last minute.

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The constituency has only existed in anything approaching its current form since 2015, but Lametti has won each of the three elections with ease, with a margin of almost 20 percent in those campaigns, making the constituency seem like a safe seat for the Liberals.

But the summer began with a safe Liberal seat falling to the Conservatives in Toronto—St. Paul’s. In St. Paul’s, the Liberal margin of victory was often even higher than what Lametti secured in LaSalle. The St. Paul’s loss led to calls for Trudeau’s resignation, which he has so far refused to offer.

Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at Leger Polling, said the two constituencies may seem similar, but Quebec has not embraced Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as enthusiastically as the rest of the country.

“In the rest of Canada, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have taken off like wildfire. They’ve basically become the proxy for when you’re unhappy with the government,” he said. “In Quebec, that hasn’t been the case.”

Enns said the biggest challenge for the Liberals in the race will likely be the Bloc. In Leger’s latest poll of federal results, the Bloc had 31 percent support, the Liberals 29 percent and the Conservatives 23 percent.

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The same poll showed the Conservatives holding a 14 percentage point lead nationally, with 41 percent of voters supporting the party.

The poll was conducted using an online sampling process that does not have a traditional margin of error, but surveyed 1,607 people. This equates to a margin of error of 2.45 percent in 19 out of 20 cases.

David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said losing LaSalle would be a major blow to Trudeau personally, as he would not only have a safe seat for the Liberal Party, but one in his own city.

“It’s a new test for the Liberals, in the prime minister’s backyard, in the middle of urban Montreal,” he said.If St. Paul’s wasn’t a complete catastrophe, it would be consistent with Justin Trudeau’s argument that he is the best person to lead the party.”

Coletto agreed that LaSalle just isn’t the same district as St. Paul’s. He said he doesn’t expect the Conservatives to suddenly be competitive here, but the NDP could pose a real challenge if voters uncomfortable with the Bloc rally around them.

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“I think there is a chance they can win this, given what we know so far and what the evidence is, but it will require a neck-and-neck race for the NDP to win it,” he said.

Trudeau selected Laura Palestini, a Montreal city councillor, to run for the party in LaSalle. The Conservatives, who usually finish fourth in the constituency, have recruited entrepreneur Louis Ialenti.

The NDP has nominated Craig Sauvé, another city councillor, and the Bloc Québécois has nominated former political aide Louis-Philippe Sauvé.

The constituency traditionally has the NDP and the Bloc almost tied for second place. Enns said that with the NDP vote down, that could lead to more support for the Bloc.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland was asked about the by-elections on Monday and said the government is not focused on polls.

“Our parliamentarians, our caucus, our government, we are really focused on delivering services for Canada and Canadians. We are focused on delivering housing services, that’s what we want to talk about today. We are focused on delivering services to make life more affordable. We are focused on delivering economic growth.”

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The Liberals are unlikely to be a major factor in Elmwood—Transcona. The by-election there was triggered by the resignation of NDP MP Daniel Blaikie, who has held the constituency since 2015. The constituency has been in the NDP column almost continuously since its creation in 1988 and was previously represented by Bill Blaikie, Daniel’s father.

The Conservatives are normally in second place, having only won the district in 2011, when Stephen Harper won his only majority government.

“Right now the Conservatives are polling better than they did in 2011, so I think it’s something to keep an eye on,” Enns said.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre held a large rally in his constituency last weekend.

Many constituencies in the Prairies and Northern Ontario are coming down to neck-and-neck battles between the NDP and the Conservatives. Enns said the challenge for the Conservatives will be to tie the NDP to the unpopular Liberal government.

“This will be an interesting test of the Conservative message, it’s not just a Liberal government. It’s a Liberal-NDP government that’s creating all these problems,” he said.

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Coletto said the NDP will have to make a strong push to retain their constituency. The party has won about 20 percent of the vote nationally, but he said they have missed even that low point in by-elections.

“When the midterm elections of the past two years took place, the NDP seriously underperformed,” he said.

The NDP has selected Leila Dance, director of a local business association, as its candidate, while the Conservatives are nominating Colin Reynolds, a construction electrician.

The Liberals have teacher and union leader Ian MacIntyre as their candidate.

Enns said the election of NDP Premier Wab Kinew at the provincial level in Manitoba last year could boost the federal party’s chances.

“One thing that probably works in the NDP’s favor in Elmwood Transcona is that the NDP government here is very popular at the provincial level,” he said.

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