5 Bold Predictions for the 2024 Cyclones Season

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It’s about that time.

There’s still about a month left before American football kicks off in the United States. That means it’s time to start making some bold predictions about the 2024 season.

Iowa State is one of the nation’s leaders in returning production, with 20 starters and nearly every major contributor on both sides of the ball. It’s shaping up to be a blockbuster season for the Cyclones, but how good will they be?

We’ve rounded up five bold predictions for the Cyclones this season, including where they’ll finish in 2024 and which players have a chance to break out:

1. Iowa State enters the final two weeks of the season in pursuit of the Big 12 championship

Of the Cyclones’ first 10 games, only two stand out as games in which the Cyclones are not considered favorites: an away game against Iowa and a game against the Kansas Jayhawks at Arrowhead Stadium.

The other eight include home games against North Dakota and Arkansas State, and six games against opponents the Cyclones were ranked higher in the Big 12 preseason poll. Of those eight, the road game against West Virginia is probably the most concerning opponent they’ll face. The Mountaineers were ranked just one spot below Iowa State in the Big 12 preseason poll.

On any given Saturday, anything can happen. However, there’s a good chance that Iowa State has a realistic shot at going 8-2 in the final two weeks of the season. Plus, it’s not like Kansas or Iowa are unbeatable, where an upset could swing the needle on other parts of the schedule.

In the final two weeks, Utah and Kansas State await. Both teams have legitimate Big 12 Championship aspirations. Iowa State could have a shot at a “win and you’re in” Big 12 title game in the final stretch of the season.

2. Abu Sama becomes first 1,000-yard rusher since Breece Hall

It’s crazy to think that Iowa State hasn’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since Hall in 2021. This season, though, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that the run game can rise above last year’s 101st-ranked rusher (119.9 rushing yards per game) in the nation.

That starts with sophomore Abu Sama, who finished his freshman season with 614 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged 7.1 yards per carry and lit the nation up with a 276-yard outing in the snow against Kansas State. He had two 70-yard touchdown runs in that game, the first running back to do so in the Big 12 since Adrian Peterson.

“He’s just a freak athlete,” Iowa State junior linebacker Caleb Bacon said. “His cutting ability, his running ability, everything about him. He’s just a great athlete.”

If he builds on that, Iowa State will have its next David Montgomery or Hall-esque talent in the backfield. The other part of that equation is the offensive line, which gets all of its starters back and adds depth via the transfer portal.

“I always feel like it starts with the offensive line,” wide receiver Jaylin Noel said. “When you have a good O-line, it all comes together. Coach (Ryan) Clanton has those guys ready to roll. We all have confidence in their ability and we know they’re going to be great this season.”

With an experienced offensive line and Sama’s proven talent, the sophomore should have a big year in 2024.

3. Baylor provides mid-season scare for Cyclones in Week 5

The Baylor Bears are in a make-or-break season.

Coach Dave Aranda is firmly in the hot seat, according to the predictions of all the major media outlets, including ESPN. That comes after a brutal 3-9 season in which the Bears ended with five straight losses, starting with a 30-18 loss to the Cyclones.

There is room for optimism for the Bears this year, though.

Baylor was a very young team last season and will return six starters on offense and seven on defense, including the entire secondary. They went deep into the transfer portal, adding offensive linemen and Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn. He’s an electric dual-threat guy who has 2,657 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns, along with 563 yards on the ground and seven rushing touchdowns. Finn has repeated similar numbers over the last three seasons, never dipping below 2,000 passing yards or 500 rushing yards.

Along with new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, who has been a top-30 or better offensive coach in five of his last six seasons, this offensive line can explode in 2024.

This game comes at an odd time for Iowa State on Oct. 5, a week after traveling to Houston, a program in the midst of a rebuilding effort, but before a tougher schedule begins with games at West Virginia and home games against UCF and Texas Tech.

In other words, Iowa State can’t avoid this one, as the Bears could be a tough team in 2024 with a lot at stake.

4. Several wide receivers will have notable moments in 2024

For a team that regularly plays in two tight end sets, Iowa State has a lot of interesting options at wide receiver. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel will be the top guys in the room, with over 1,800 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023. But there are a few guys who have been mentioned by their teammates as potential impact players.

We start with Daniel Jackson, who had 16 receptions, 260 yards and two touchdowns in 2023. At 6’1” and 205 pounds, his talent draws attention.

“He’s one of the most talented wide receivers we have on the team, honestly,” Noel said. “He’s a physical, bigger receiver that can pretty much do anything you ask him to do. He’s very smooth with his route-running, great at the catch point and can make things happen after the catch.

“He’s going to play a really important role in our success this year.”

Next to Jackson was Beni Ngoyi, a 6-foot-3 redshirt freshman who caught one pass in the Liberty Bowl for 46 yards. Although he wasn’t on the field much, Noel sees Ngoyi in the same category as Jackson.

“Those two guys are going to help us a lot this season, just going out there and knowing exactly what they’re doing and making plays,” Noel said. “It’s going to be special to watch those guys this year.”

Transfers Eli Green (North Dakota State) and Isaiah Alston (Army) also bring their own unique skills. Green is a gadget player who thrives in space with the ball in his hands, while Alston is the big-play threat.

Green arrived before spring for winter training so his teammates could see him, and his speed and utility impressed even the defense.

“Eli came in and he did a good job,” said Iowa State sophomore defensive back Jamison Patton.

Alston was skilled enough at Army that the Golden Knights attempted to move outside of the wishbone offense to throw him the ball more often. In four games before injuries shortened his season, Alston was averaging nearly 30 yards per reception in 2023. After starting with him 2-2, Army lost the next four games with him on the sidelines.

Between Jackson, Ngoyi, Green and Alston, there aren’t enough targets to go around for all four to consistently stand out. Green, however, is an offensive coordinator’s dream as the type of guy to design specific plays for and get into space. Alston, Jackson and Ngoyi are all big-play threats who come into play with their unique blend of size and athleticism, perhaps as the ones who can break a game open with an 80-yard reception to stun a team late.

By the end of the season, Higgins and Noel will lead the team in receiving as long as they stay healthy. Still, Jackson, Green, Alston and Ngoyi will all have individual moments or brilliant games to give Iowa State that extra push when it needs it.

5. Iowa State ends up as an outsider in the playoff race

The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is organized as follows: The four highest-seeded conference champions and the highest-seeded group of five conference champions receive automatic bids, while the remaining seven spots are the highest-seeded teams that remain.

We’re ignoring the COVID-shortened 2020 season because a lot of unusual things happened back then. But if you look at the final College Football Playoff poll from every season since 2014, you can see which teams would have made it under this new format.

Of the 108 different teams that would have made the CFP since 2014, again excluding the COVID year, only seven (6.4%) had nine wins. Those seven (Ole Miss and Kansas State in 2014, USC and Florida State in 2016, and Florida, LSU, and Penn State in 2018). The rest of the teams had 10 wins or more, and there were also several years where 10-win teams from Power Five conferences were left out. No team with nine wins or fewer would have made the CFP under the new format since 2018.

Barring a down year in the conferences, 10 wins is the threshold you need to meet, if not exceed. That means Iowa State needs to be at least 9-3 in the regular season and have enough going on in the Big 12 to reach the Big 12 title game for a shot at that 10th win. In a world where the top four conference champions get automatic bids without the actual Pac-12, the Big 12 champion would be hard-pressed not to be included in that automatic bid selection.

In our first bold look at the season, we placed Iowa State at 8-2 heading into the showdowns with Utah and Kansas State. Given Utah’s returning veterans, including star quarterback Cam Rising, a road game against the Utes in 2024 will simply be too tough. Following that up with a tough rivalry game against a well-coached Kansas State team led by talented youngster Avery Johnson at quarterback seems like the schedule is having a snowball effect on them by the end.

The final bold prediction is that the Cyclones will go 8-4 and just barely out of CFP contention in 2024. But the Cyclones will need a lot in return in 2025 to mount another run.

Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the Des Moines Register. Contact him at [email protected]Follow him on Twitter at @EMcKown23.

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