Why did China just agree to cooperate with the US on fentanyl?

It’s not often that we get a positive story these days, especially when it comes to the mess that is US-China relations.

But yesterday (Wednesday) the White House made an announcement that left us feeling uneasy. small warm and fuzzy – like, 0.000001% warm and 0.000002% fuzzy: China has agreed to subject three key Chinese-made precursor chemicals used in the production of fentanyl to “additional regulation and control“.

National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett even called it a “valuable step forward“.

Fentanyl?

Our American readers know that fentanyl is a synthetic opioid that:

• Ultra-powerful (80 to 100 times more than morphine) and
• Ultra cheap (The folks at Reuters found they could make three million pills – worth $3 million – using an internet connection and $3,000.)

Fentanyl has been used as a painkiller for decades, but its potency and cost have now caused the drug to create a stir in the U.S. in two ways:

• First of all, in terms of public healthwhich causes 100,000 overdose deaths each year, and
• Second in terms of national securitywith organized crime taking advantage of its ability to supply the US market.

So… the US has long struggled to stem the tide.

And what does this have to do with China?

Much of the finished product entered the US via China until Beijing imposed a sweeping ban on the drug and its variants in 2019.

The ban “worked” by reducing the amount of Chinese-made fentanyl smuggled into the US, but organized crime did what it always does: it rotated. So instead of importing the final product, it imported the ingredients (precursors).

Most of these basic chemicals are manufactured in China and then shipped to labs in Mexico, where syndicates convert them into fentanyl and smuggle them into the U.S. through illegal channels.

The nature of fentanyl makes this supply chain difficult to stop: the entire annual U.S. supply could reportedly fit in the bed of a few Ford F-150s.

So… will this new US-China pact work?

We started this piece with a warm and fuzzy feeling, but it’s a little bit harder to end it that way. Here’s why:

• Many of the chemical precursors of fentanyl are legitimate inputs for perfumes, dyes, rubbers and insecticides, so a complete ban is not feasible
• The criminal supply chain can also simply change the chemical structure of all major restricted substances to avoid specifically forbidden, and
• The transnational nature of the supply chain means that it is often a criminal result based on many legal stepsmaking prosecution difficult.

So you can count on organized crime to turn again. But honestly? That’s the cat and mouse story of tackling organized crime: it’s a path instead of a destination.

And in the meantime, we print out the White House announcement on the US and China, crawl inside and inhale its scent, as a reminder that even staunch rivals can – and should – still find a way to work together.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE OVER

All of this, of course, begs the question: Why has China agreed to impose restrictions on its own massive and highly lucrative chemical industry, in order to help a rival like the US with its own drug problem?

We have a few theories:

FirstAll of this has cost China its reputation, particularly among U.S. lawmakers who must shape the evolving U.S. response to issues that could really hurt China (such as China’s access to U.S. markets and technology).

SecondBy 2022, the issue had expanded beyond US-China relations, when a major UN drug trafficking agency added key fentanyl precursors to the list of substances that all members (including China) must now regulate.

And thirdWe’ve written before about how Xi Jinping has a real reason to tactical to stabilize ties with the US while addressing the growing list of economic (and therefore political) challenges he faces at home.

All three of the above points likely played a role in Beijing’s decision to participate, and all offer insights for anyone seeking to shape China’s future choices.

Also worth mentioning: