reality of the second revolution

Dramatic events that have unfolded in Bangladesh over the past week or so have led to the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power and her flight to India. The student agitation against the repressive policies of the Awami League regime, including the system of job quotas, has resulted in around 400 deaths amidst a massive upheaval across the country. However, the dust is slowly settling with the installation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus.

Sheikh Hasina’s regime that emerged after the inconclusive January 2024 elections seemed invincible due to the government’s authoritarian grip on state institutions and high-handed tactics against its political rivals, including the arrests of leaders of the main opposition BNP party and the banning of Jamaat-e-Islami. However, the regime succumbed to the nationwide student protests and collapsed like a house of cards?

The question remains whether Skeikh Hasina is a dead horse or whether she can still come to power through political manipulation at home and open support from the Narendra Modi regime next door? Also, to what extent will the so-called second revolution in Bangladesh ensure free and fair elections and establish genuine democracy? These are the questions being asked by those who are disturbed by the fluid situation in Bangladesh.

The installation of Dr. Muhammad Yunus as the Chief Advisor to the interim government of Bangladesh in the wake of a successful student uprising that led to the downfall of Sheikh Hasina’s government reflects the power of the people that triumphed over the arrogant and repressive Awami League regime. The manner in which Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country after the intervention of the military shows the fragility of her popular support and her dependence on India and a corrupt mafia to keep her in power. When the power of the students who had decided to oust her from power culminated in a civil war, the military forced Prime Minister Hasina to resign and leave the country or face the wrath of the people.

About 49 years ago, in August 1975 to be precise, Sheikh Hasin’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the then President of Bangladesh, was assassinated by his own army, along with his entire family, except for his two daughters Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana who were abroad at the time. Mujib, the Father of the Nation, had become extremely unpopular among the masses. And now this year, in August, history is repeating itself – the only difference being that Sheikh Hasina, though she lost power, managed to escape to India instead of being assassinated by the incendiary crowd.

The political change in Bangladesh that led to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s regime can be analysed from three perspectives:

Firstly, the ambitions of the military generals to rule the country after the unceremonious ouster of Sheikh Hasina turned out to be a non-starter as the student leaders who led the agitation against the job quota system and other repressive government policies made it clear that they will not allow the military to take advantage of the situation and seize power. They were the ones who proposed the highly respected name of Dr. Muhammad Yunus to lead the government and organize free and fair elections.

Secondly, given the Awami League’s experience with political manipulation and Sheikh Hasina’s close ties with India, there is always a possibility that she will try to return to Bangladesh to regain power. However, that is an unlikely possibility given Sheikh Hasina’s alleged corruption, nepotism and political repression against opposition leaders, particularly BNP leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and those of Jamaat e-Islami. Knowing that her popularity has hit the bottom and that the majority of students will neither forget nor forgive her brutal and repressive measures to suppress their movement, she will face a serious backlash if she tries to return to her homeland.

And thirdly, not only the Awami League but also some quarters in India see Pakistan and China behind Sheikh Hasina’s removal from power. So much so that Sheikh Hasina’s son who lives abroad said that Bangladesh will become another Pakistan after his mother’s removal from power. But such allegations, which were also refuted by the Foreign Office of Pakistan, only reflect the venom and paranoia of Sheikh Hasina and India towards Pakistan. It is pertinent to mention here that both India and the Awami League also accused Pakistan of playing a role in the August 15, 1975 massacre of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and his family.

Now that Bangladesh is about to go through another election process, the challenge will be whether to remain a secular state or to become an Islamist state. It seems that the Jamaat-e-Islami, which played a leading role in the successful student agitation, has benefited the most from the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government. More than the BNP, which is quite weak due to the years of oppression it suffered under Sheikh Hasina’s regime, it is the Jamaat that has survived despite the hanging of its leaders for collaborating with the Pakistani army in the 1971 war. The revival of the Jamaat will certainly strengthen its Islamic identity, but it will be opposed by the remnants of the Awami League who want Bangladesh to continue on the path of secularism.

While it is too early to predict which way Bangladesh will go, one thing is certain: the era of political oppression and Pakistan bashing that had worsened during Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule will at least diminish. It is true that Bangladesh excelled in economic, human and social development under Sheikh Hasina, but the people of Bangladesh were not ready to give up their freedom and their age-old struggle for democracy.

The lesson we can learn from the recent changes in Bangladesh is the invincibility of the power of students and the people in general, who have broken the myth of Sheikh Hasina’s power.