Commentary: The Demographics of Reorientation

by Edward Ring

It has become a truism among right-wing voters in America that as the percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the population decreases, the percentage of registered Democrats increases. This truism is, of course, shared by the progressive left in America. This might lead one to conclude that if Democrats wanted to turn America into a one-party state, they would do everything they could to increase the percentage of voters who are not “non-Hispanic whites.”

There is evidence to support this truth. For example, in 1970, California’s population was 80 percent non-Hispanic white, with Republican Governor Ronald Reagan and both houses of the state legislature controlled by Republicans. That was the last year that Republicans had a trifecta in the state. Today, California’s non-Hispanic white population has dropped to 34 percent, and the state is under absolute control of Democrats. They have controlled both houses of the state legislature since 1997, and with the exception of Schwarzenegger’s anomalous presence from 2004 to 2010, the state has not had a Republican governor since 1998.

Keeping in mind that correlation does not necessarily equal causation, here’s a nationwide look at the correlation between the percentage of non-Hispanic whites and the percentage of voters who lean GOP. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Gallup, the scatter plot below shows party preference on the vertical axis and non-Hispanic white population on the horizontal axis. You don’t need to run a regression analysis to see a strong correlation. In general, the higher the percentage of whites in a state, the higher the percentage of GOP voters, and the lower that percentage of whites, the lower the percentage of GOP voters.

Just as correlation does not necessarily equal causation, actions may not be motivated by particular truths. But with the U.S. presidential election still months away, it can be productive to speculate about what additional, much deeper motivations might be. It is not enough to claim that Democrats want to import millions of non-white voters, while Democrats relentlessly demonize white Republicans as racist bigots living on stolen land. That is all true, and it does attract votes for Democrats, but it is a superficial phenomenon.

Government agencies at all levels welcomed the new programs that had to be funded to help the new immigrants. Private businesses welcomed the influx of workers willing to accept low wages. Investors welcomed the inevitable shortages—fueled by the useful idiocy of environmentalists—that drove up the value of their portfolio assets. In general, as our population grows, government grows, the economy grows, and monopolies grow. Most of this growth, however, is damaged the middle class. It has also denied upward mobility to America’s low-income communities and young people.

But since 2016, the illusion of competition between the traditional parties has been shattered, and over the past eight years the Republican Party has systematically purged its RINOs. As a result, for the first time in modern history, Americans have a choice this November. It’s a choice that increasingly has the support of non-whites.

Democrats today are made up of two very distinct groups. At the top are donors and voters who are white liberals who are either wealthy enough to be exempt from the economic challenges that most Americans face today, or who actively benefit from them. At the bottom are millions of Americans who have come to rely on government assistance to survive. But will non-whites in America continue to believe that their poverty is caused by Republican racists, and that the only way they can survive economically is by voting Democrat?

Voting data from the past few elections suggests that narrative has begun to erode. In 2012, Latino support for uniparty stalwart Mitt Romney was 27 percent. In 2016, Trump increased that to 29 percent, and in 2020, Trump got 32 percent of Latinos. After a surge earlier this year, Kamala Harris’ candidacy may have derailed Trump’s momentum among Latinos, but Trump’s support among Latinos in swing states had risen to 37 percent as of Aug. 5. Some polls earlier this year had Trump ahead of Biden among Latinos.

Even the near-universal support for Democrats among blacks is eroding. Romney won a mere 6 percent of the black vote in 2012, and Trump increased that to 8 percent in 2016. But in 2020, Trump increased his share of the black vote to 12 percent. As for this election, until Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee, polls consistently put Trump’s support among black voters at 23 percent.

Asian voters are also defecting, and some indicators suggest that has increased significantly in recent elections. Exit polls in 2016 showed Asian support for Trump at 18 percent, while by 2020 that had risen to 31 percent. A July 2024 poll found Asian support for Trump remained at 31 percent, although that was before Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee.

Overall, recent decades of voting data confirm that nonwhites overwhelmingly support Democrats, but the data also show that support has been declining with each election cycle. More importantly, something fundamental has changed since 2016. Republicans in 2024 are a completely transformed party, capable of offering a real choice. RINOs are now the exception, not the rule.

This time around, nonwhite voters, along with their non-Hispanic white counterparts, will have the chance to choose between two visions of the future. If they vote Republican, they support merit-based, controlled immigration. They support a crackdown on environmentalists, along with a comprehensive energy strategy that will lower the cost of living. They support law and order, including cracking down on fentanyl dealers and declaring war on drug cartels. They support deregulation to allow businesses large and small to flourish, creating millions of jobs. And they support peace in the world.

Or they can support a bunch of career demagogues who focus on race and gender, but who will do none of the above.

If Republicans can convey this new reality, that they are the party of peace and prosperity, and Democrats are the party of endless war and an economy rigged to benefit bureaucrats and billionaires, they will break the cycle. What Democrats are offering Americans this year is not a future anyone should want, regardless of their background.

America’s demographic trends may indeed be bringing about a realignment, but it may not be the realignment that Democrats have long taken for granted.

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Edward Ring is a senior fellow at the Center for American Greatness. He is also director of water and energy policy for the California Policy Center, which he co-founded in 2013 and served as its first president. Ring is the author of Fixing California: Abundance, Pragmatism, Optimism (2021) and The Abundance Choice: Our Fight for More Water in California (2022).
Photo “Voters Cast Their Ballots” by Phil Roeder.