Government repression offers little hope to Venezuelan opposition

After mass demonstrations erupted following Venezuela’s disputed July 28 elections, President Nicolás Maduro has taken tough measures to suppress protests and disrupt the political opposition. Public demonstrations have been disrupted by mass arrests, military violence and the use of government-affiliated paramilitaries, sometimes with deadly results. Opposition leaders, including presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia and party leader María Corina Machado, have gone into hiding as government forces attempt to arrest them.

Part of this effort includes what Maduro calls “Operation Knock-Knock,” in which police go door to door to arrest people who have allegedly participated in the protests, usually without a warrant. Part of the operation has included the creation of a toll-free phone line and a social media channel (via the government’s VenApp) for anonymous reports of unrest and anti-government actors. The president has urged Venezuelans to report “traitors” to police.

In a speech last week, Maduro announced some of the results of the government’s efforts. “With the fusion of civilian-military-police, in 48 hours we have restored peace! We have now captured 2,229 terrorists… on Saturday they will be taken to Tocorón and Tocuyito,” he said, referring to two of the country’s prisons. In addition to the thousands of protesters and opposition figures, at least two dozen people have been killed, most by pro-government paramilitary forces from Venezuela, known as “collectivos.”

To complement the government’s other efforts to quell civil unrest, Maduro has also introduced a bill in Venezuela’s National Assembly to restrict the use of social media in the country, arguing that it is a tool of foreign powers seeking to undermine Venezuelan sovereignty. The country has already blocked the use of the social network X after its owner, Elon Musk, clashed with Maduro online, accusing him of “major electoral fraud.” In response, Maduro suspended the website for 10 days, saying it “foments hatred, civil war and death.”

As internal unrest subsides following the government’s crackdown, international pressure on Venezuela has mounted. While the Venezuelan government undoubtedly expected denunciations from the United States, the UN and Latin American countries unfriendly to Venezuela, two countries traditionally friendly to Maduro have also refused to recognize the results announced by the National Electoral Council (CNE). Colombia, led by President Gustavo Petro, and Brazil, led by Lula da Silva, have asked the Venezuelan government to release the CNE’s voting data as proof of the election’s legitimacy before they certify the results. The two countries discussed the issue by telephone on Wednesday, but it appears they have not reached an agreement on the matter.

With more than 80 percent of the voting machine receipts from the July 28 election published online by the opposition showing a landslide victory for González, it is unlikely that the CNE will ever release the official vote count. Instead, Maduro has proposed holding runoff elections, a proposal likely to be met with skepticism by Brazil and Colombia. Without a significant change in government behavior, there is little reason for either country to have confidence in the legitimacy of a runoff election when the first is still in doubt.

Both countries want to prevent Venezuela’s political and social crisis from worsening. Millions of Venezuelan refugees have passed through or settled in their country over the past decade, straining local economies and social services and significantly increasing crime in some places. The government’s actions also threaten to further destabilize and isolate the country, making it more vulnerable to drug cartels and organized crime, which are already a problem in many parts of Venezuela.

The United States may also try to pressure Maduro to recognize González’s election as president. On Sunday Wall Street Journal reported that the US held secret talks with the Venezuelan government and offered amnesty to Maduro and other government officials in exchange for a peaceful transfer of power to the opposition. However, the White House denied that such an offer had been made.

Despite persistent opposition protests and international pressure, however, it seems increasingly unlikely that anyone other than Maduro will lead the country in the near future. The Venezuelan government has thoroughly coup-proofed the military, regularly purging officers with suspected loyalties and offering lavish perks, including cash bonuses, free housing, and government positions, to loyalists. Any change of government would likely prove dangerous not only for Maduro himself, but for many other political and military leaders who have worked alongside him.

The continued hostility of the US and its allies is likely to leave Maduro relying on Russia and China for his government’s support. Both countries immediately recognized his victory in the July election, and both have invested in the country in the past. China in particular has shown strong support, lending the government billions of dollars and investing billions more in Venezuela’s oil and gas industry. Only last year did China and Venezuela sign a new Comprehensive Partnership Agreement, and President Xi will undoubtedly seize the opportunity presented by the country’s instability to pull the country further into China’s orbit.