2024 remains an unpredictable race: Six predictable things that could still disrupt it

Donald Trump announced his 2024 presidential bid 21 months ago. Tomorrow marks four weeks since Joe Biden withdrew from the race. Two weeks since Vice President Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee. The Democratic Convention begins on Monday.

Before and when Joe Biden fell, I was certain of two things: that Kamala Harris would bring much more staying power to the race, and that she would be much more vocal about a pro-choice position that could sway the outcome of the race. I was also fairly certain that because someone was selling wildly successful policies, both Biden’s and Harris’ approval ratings would improve (remember, my screenshots are 5 hours ahead of ET; this tweet was 3 hours after Biden fell and 2 hours after he endorsed Harris).

I was hoping that Kamala would break the Double Hater impasse that has characterized the past two presidential elections (and this one, up until that point).

Kamala’s approval ratings are up (Biden’s are less dramatic, but may still be up a bit so far).

And the renewed enthusiasm, especially among independent voters, suggests the vice president might indeed be able to break the logjam over the dual haters.

That said, I think far too many people are too quick to believe that Harris will slowly build a lead that will last, despite whatever rat-case Trump pulls in November.

If we’ve learned one thing about the 2024 election, it’s that normal predictions don’t come true.

I still think a real Black Swan is possible, something like a world war.

I also think that the unpredictable and widespread notoriety of Project 2025 will disrupt all normal political outcomes. Not only is it a post-Dobbs election (with abortion on the ballot in swing states like Arizona), but the constant coverage of Project 2025 in both the political and popular press has put democracy on the ballot in surprising ways.

But the following six things are also very possible, and could significantly impact the race in several ways.

Major protests at DNC: Many of those pushing Biden to resign, including Nancy Pelosi, had favored a speed primary of sorts. Instead, Biden and Harris made that impossible within 24 hours of his departure. So instead of a wildly divisive convention, Harris can look forward to a lovefest, with the biggest questions being whether Jimmy Carter can pull off a video cameo and which surprise performers — possibly including Bruce Springsteen, Beyoncé, or even Taylor Swift — will make an appearance.

The very important caveat here, however, is that 30 or so uncommitted delegates could be a source of division within the Convention, and tens of thousands more outside. It is the latter that I am most concerned about. The protests themselves will draw attention to the ongoing catastrophe in Gaza. But they are also an easy target for provocateurs and right-wing agents to exploit.

Meaningful ceasefire in Israel – or further escalation: In the face of potential escalation, negotiators have redoubled their efforts to forge some sort of ceasefire. But there is some reason to believe that Trump and Bibi will thwart this at all costs.

Gaza’s potential to dampen Democratic enthusiasm (or boost third-party candidates) has long been a point of interest. But few have fully unpacked how it has been exploited by the right. So either way, this remains the most likely turn for more discord among likely Democratic voters.

And all this before Iran actually takes steps to attack Donald Trump.

Trump’s Superseding Indictment and/or Conviction in September: Trump is expected to be sentenced in his document fraud case in New York on Sept. 18. The parties in Trump’s Jan. 6 case are expected to discuss how to proceed with the Supreme Court’s immunity challenge in early September.

Yesterday, Trump requested a stay of sentencing until after the election. Roger Parloff offered a nuanced assessment of the largely but not entirely frivolous request. Even if convicted, it is not at all clear that Juan Merchan would sentence Trump to prison.

Meanwhile, I’m not alone in thinking that Jack Smith asked for a delay until the last possible day to replace Trump before the election, because he may be considering such a course of action (since I wrote that post, the Justice Department has opted to indict even more of the Jan. 6 crime scenes that have been charged with obstruction). A superseding indictment could add his accomplices (as others predict) or change the crimes charged against Trump (my own suspicion). Either way, there will be trials in September on the Jan. 6 case, proceedings that have the potential to reveal more details about how closely Trump’s team worked with the Proud Boys or how centrally Trump played a role in sending bodies to the Capitol.

The thing about either eventuality is that it’s not at all clear that the line so far — that Trump’s legal troubles are only making him more popular on the right — will hold up, not least because independent voters will finally tune in. And even if it does, it will be against a backdrop of Kamala running as a prosecutor who has a history of taking on thugs like Trump.

Another tumultuous debate: Trump actually had a really bad debate in June, but a combination of asymmetric press coverage and Trump normalization has covered that up. If he has another debate like that, it could be a real drag on his campaign.

But there’s also no guarantee that Kamala will win a debate. Trump’s ability to reframe entire conversations is unparalleled, and no moderator has been able to rein it in so far. What’s more, Trump has engineered some kind of gimmick for at least half of his presidential debate appearances (like hosting Tony Bobulinski or making a framed false claim about Biden’s role in the Mike Flynn investigation). They usually flop, but there’s no guarantee that will happen.

Further deterioration in Trump’s mental state: Frankly, I think the extent to which Trump’s bluster and displeasure are new is wildly exaggerated. He’s always been that way. But I think the way it’s been perceived has changed lately. That’s partly because his schtick has become so tired that even Trump supporters have started tuning out (and occasionally leaving his events) in droves. Because Trump has tried to replace his large rallies with smaller- or no-crowd events in recent weeks, he hasn’t had the energy he normally gets from the crowds of adulation he needs to make his appearances work.

That may now change, as the Secret Service has developed a plexiglass booth to protect him outside.

Yet Kamala Harris has found ways to bring out Trump’s ugliest side, making it harder for him to keep his grievances in check.

As a result, the press and some Republicans have begun commenting on his mental performance in a way they haven’t done since 2016.

Far-right political violence: As I’ve outlined here , Trump’s allies and Elon Musk have both been part of a transnational effort to incite violence based on fear-mongering about migrants. In the past, right-wing attempts to incite fear based on fabricated claims about caravans and the like have failed. And there’s always the chance that Trump’s gang will riot in response to any of the above, such as a superseding indictment.

As noted at the beginning of this post, it’s possible that Kamala Harris will continue to attract new voters by competing in states (starting with North Carolina) that have been struggling for years.

But that is if trends continue. And this year there is plenty of reason to doubt whether that will be the case.

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