Hamas-Israel ceasefire talks in hot water as Blinken visits region

U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, August 19, 2024.

JERUSALEM – As the threat of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah loomed over ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, there were mixed signals Monday about the success or failure of the talks. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in the region to try to bring the warring parties to a standstill.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Blinken for a three-hour meeting in Jerusalem — described as “positive” and “held in a good atmosphere,” and which concluded with the prime minister issuing a statement publicly endorsing the latest US “bridge proposal” presented to Israel and conveyed to Hamas at the end of the Doha talks last week. The bridge proposal is an attempt to manage the seemingly vast differences in expectations between Hamas and Israel — and in such a way, if possible, that the talks do not collapse entirely.

The meeting lasted about three hours. The Prime Minister reiterated Israel’s commitment to the current American proposal on the release of our hostages, which takes into account Israel’s security needs, which he strongly urges.

— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) August 19, 2024

Initial reports on Sunday suggested that Netanyahu was wary of the prospects for a breakthrough, his pessimism – according to ministers with knowledge of the matter – stemming from his rejection of the idea that the IDF should abandon the Philadelphia Corridor. The stretch of land, which crosses the Gaza-Egypt border, has emerged as a key route through which Hamas smuggled men, weapons and equipment into its mafia-style stronghold.

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This is one of the key sticking points, and one where Netanyahu does not want to leave much room.

In addition to Hamas, negotiators must also consider Egypt, whose pride has been bruised and battered as the scale of the operation—and the necessary coordination—between it and Hamas has been exposed, following Israel’s continued presence in and around Rafah. The IDF even blew up a mile-long tunnel on Monday as it continues to dismantle Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure.

Mile-long terror tunnel in southern Gaza destroyed by IDF

‘Along the tunnel route was an active complex of Hamas terrorists, where weapons, explosives and long-term stay equipment were found – used by the terrorists who left the complex when the troops arrived’ photo.twitter.com/P8gNVecrCv

— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) August 19, 2024

On Sunday night, Hamas issued an official statement rejecting the terms of a hostage release and ceasefire deal, effectively accusing Netanyahu of creating obstacles to reaching a deal.

Blinken, who met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog earlier in the day, said he came at President Biden’s direction to get the deal done and eventually terminated, in what may be the last chance to bring the hostages home.

Blinken meets Israeli President Isaac Herzog

Blinken’s views on what the Biden administration has done over the past 10 months, seemingly without urgency or direction on the matter — especially since there are high-profile American citizens among the hostages — are not on record.

Do both parties want the talks to succeed?

The answer to that question depends on who you ask. Netanyahu’s critics—and there are many of them, from political opponents, large parts of the hostage families, experts and others—claim that he is trying to find a way to derail the talks. They have accused him of sacrificing the desire to return the hostages—115 of whom are still held—to prolong a war whose stated goal of “destroying Hamas” seems amorphous.

He has been accused of letting the situation drift, using his favorite tactic of not making concrete decisions to keep his options open, and also of being loose with the seniority of the diplomatic teams he has sent to negotiate on Israel’s behalf. His Hamas critics would also point to the fact that he ordered the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran as evidence of his lack of seriousness.

On the other hand, there is Hamas. In all the talk of shaky negotiations, we must not forget what these Gaza gangsters did on October 7 to start this war. They carried out a pogrom so twisted and brutal, and fueled by an orgiastic sense of joy, that it deliberately provoked the reaction they hoped to get from Israel.

Yahya Sinwar hoped to draw Iran and its vassals, especially Hezbollah, into a regional war, pitting them directly against Israel, with the odds potentially stacked in their favor. He may yet get his way, as Hezbollah is playing semantic games about not wanting an expected attack on Israel, while there is still a glimmer of hope for ceasefire negotiations.

If the talks do indeed fail, expectations that Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate for the targeted killings on their respective homelands – despite the prospect of the situation potentially spiraling out of control – will increase exponentially.

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