Another report undermines the ongoing narrative that US crime rates are out of control

of the fear is always a seller’s market department

As long as the evening news has existed, America has been portrayed as a dangerous place to live. Reminding people that we are a very safe country — especially over the last 30 years — doesn’t attract viewers.

And it doesn’t attract voters. One of the many, many, many things Donald Trump lied about during his mid-July press conference was the violent crime rate in this country. (He also claimed that his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, is weak on crime, despite her long history as a prosecutor.)

I think our country is in the most dangerous position it has ever been in, from an economic standpoint, from a security standpoint, both gangs on the streets and, frankly, gangs outside of our country in the form of other countries that, frankly, are very powerful. They are very powerful countries.

I’m not going to speculate on the nature of “gangs outside our country,” especially those in “frankly very powerful” countries. But it is patently false to claim that the U.S. is in the “most dangerous position it has ever been in… from a security standpoint.”

These are the kinds of things Trump has said repeatedly. There are variations on the theme, but the theme remains the same, regardless of what the data actually says. While there was a noticeable increase in crime in 2020 during the COVID pandemic, crime rates did not increase across the country. The spikes that were seen that year have largely declined. And, it should be noted, this has occurred during Donald Trump’s presidency, despite the promise he made at the beginning of his term to transform this country into a nation that automatically gives cops all the respect they haven’t earned.

Meanwhile, social media and traditional news outlets have done their part to fuel this false narrative, claiming that viral videos of deviant criminal behavior are representative of the nation as a whole.

The most recent data from the FBI, the Uniform Crime Report (UCR), shows a double-digit decline across all levels of violent crime and property crime.

A comparison of data from agencies that voluntarily submitted at least two or more common months of data for January through March 2023 and 2024 indicates that reported violent crimes decreased by 15.2 percent. Murder decreased by 26.4 percent, rape decreased by 25.7 percent, robbery decreased by 17.8 percent, and aggravated assault decreased by 12.5 percent. Reported property crime also decreased by 15.1 percent.

This report is far from complete. Participation by U.S. law enforcement agencies is barely over 70%. In addition, the FBI has revised its crime categorization, which may result in some crimes being over- or under-reported until all reporting law enforcement agencies are on the same page regarding the classification of the crime.

But it still seems like good news, even if you’ll never hear it from the alarmists and opportunists who always seem to have the biggest megaphones.

More data has been released by another agency that compiles its own reports on crime rates. The Major Cities Chiefs Association report (PDF) covers 69 of the nation’s largest cities. And the declines in crime rates covered here are steep.

According to the Axios survey, 54 of the 69 major cities in the report saw a decline in violent crime — defined as murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — through the first half of 2024.

Columbus, Ohio, saw the largest percentage drop in violent crime in the country, with a massive 41% drop so far in 2024. Omaha, Nebraska, came in second with a 30% drop.

In Miami and Washington DC, violent crime has decreased by 29% so far.

In Austin, Texas, there was a 28% decline, followed by New Orleans with a 26% decline.

Additionally, Boston saw a 78% drop in murders. And Philadelphia — a city that tough-on-crime types love to bash for electing a “progressive” district attorney — saw a 42% drop in murders over the same period.

The data contradicts the story. But the story is often the only thing most people pay attention to. Crime rates peaked in the early 1990s and have been steadily declining ever since. Contrary to Trump’s claims, this country is in the safest position it once was, in terms of crime rates. More people need to be made aware of these facts and adjust their actions accordingly. There is no reason why we, as a nation, should continue to tolerate powerful and influential people who continue to insist otherwise.

Posted under: crime rates, Donald Trump, hysteria, MCAA, police, public safety