Maduro’s Geopolitical Poker – Democracy and Society

More than three weeks after Venezuela’s presidential election, the battle lines remain deadlocked. Nicolás Maduro, in power since 2013, has yet to provide any evidence of his alleged election victory, and his security forces are brutally suppressing protests. Hopes for a sudden democratic revelation or the disintegration of the ruling camarilla under pressure from street demonstrations have evaporated. The regime’s civilian supporters and the security forces have closed ranks.

Some observers suspect that Maduro is biding his time, hoping that the international community will quickly forget his blatant electoral fraud. Documents obtained by the opposition show a 67-30 victory for their candidate Edmundo González Urrutia. Maduro is counting on the help of like-minded authoritarian potentates to avoid international isolation, crush the opposition with his repression – human rights groups call it “state terror” – and suppress any resurgence of dissent.

Former Maduro insiders, on the other hand, believe that he is flexing his muscles to negotiate from a position of strength. It remains to be seen who is right. With six months to go before the new government takes office, there is still a chance for a breakthrough. An initial, seemingly improvised attempt at mediation by Brazil and Colombia (Mexico dropped out) failed. What is needed now is professional diplomacy that takes into account the entire ‘geopolitical chessboard’.

Autocratic alliances

Despite corruption and mismanagement, Venezuela is a rich country with resources that are in demand internationally. The petrostate has the largest oil reserves in the world, still producing about 850,000 barrels per day (down from more than 3 million 20 years ago). It also mines 35 tons of gold per year, 70 percent of which is exported illegally through networks of corrupt military personnel, Colombian ELN guerrillas and international criminal syndicates. The rest flows into the coffers of the central bank.

The United States imposed its first sanctions in 2015, initially targeting individual regime officials. They have been stepped up over the years, in tandem with Maduro’s creeping authoritarianism. In the meantime, Maduro has sought help and expertise from other dictatorships, notably Cuba, Iran, Russia and China. Economic centers such as Turkey and India help market the gold and oil.

Cuba’s revolutionary leader Fidel Castro and Venezuela’s petrosocialist Hugo Chávez, elected in 1998, were in a bromance from the start. Castro was primarily interested in cheap Venezuelan oil and a political ally in his fight against the U.S. embargo. In return, Havana sent doctors, bodyguards for the president, and military and intelligence advisers to Caracas.

This brought the military into line and nipped coup attempts in the bud. As of July 2024, half of all political prisoners were from the military. Havana’s influence has waned since the deaths of Castro and Chávez and the deep crisis that has gripped Cuba. But other autocracies have stepped into the breach.

Russia, China and Iran

The country’s partnership with Russia began on a military level in 2006. Due to Caracas’s support for Colombian guerrillas, the U.S. halted arms exports to Venezuela. Russia seized the opportunity and has since sought to expand its geostrategic partnership in the U.S. backyard. Today, Venezuela’s arsenal includes Russian tanks, attack helicopters, and Sukhoi fighter-bombers. Russian energy giants Rosneft, Gazprom, and Lukoil are partners with Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, and Russian bot centers help Maduro with disinformation campaigns.

Experts believe that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is primarily interested in long-term strategic cooperation aimed at weakening US hegemony by establishing a multipolar world order. Thus, Russia sponsors Venezuela, which has applied to join the BRICS states, an important instrument of this intended multipolar order. However, economic relations remain modest. In 2019, Venezuela exported goods and services worth $1.57 million to Russia, compared to Russian imports worth $92.5 million.

Beijing has loaned Venezuela nearly $60 billion, more than Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Ecuador combined.

China’s priorities are somewhat different: the main issue is economic competition with the US in its resource-rich backyard. China is now Venezuela’s top trading partner and has invested $4.5 billion in its energy sector. Beijing is also the source of Venezuela’s social control strategy. Both the facial recognition software and the registration and capture of the population’s biometric data for the digital “Fatherland” app – used to pay out social benefits – come from China.

But first of all, Beijing is Caracas’s largest creditor. It has loaned Venezuela nearly $60 billion, more than Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Ecuador combined. Corruption and mismanagement have of course absorbed much of that. According to various economic development agencies, Caracas still owes more than $15 billion. Maduro has not even received any new loans since 2018, despite numerous overtures. Beijing is now focused on stabilizing the Venezuelan economy.

Iran’s primary interest appears to be in establishing a South American beachhead for its global anti-Israel activities. Under Chávez, Tehran forged alliances with close allies of Venezuelan terrorist Ilich Ramirez Sánchez, also known as Carlos the Jackal. It also established paramilitary training camps in Venezuela. Under Maduro, the focus has been on helping Iran circumvent oil sanctions and bolstering its dilapidated oil infrastructure.

Crossing a border

These authoritarian overseas axes are crisis-proof. They have helped Maduro survive US and EU sanctions. However, they are geopolitical “marriages of convenience” with countries whose immediate strategic priorities lie in their own spheres of influence: for Putin in Ukraine, for China in Taiwan, and for Iran in the Middle East.

They offer a lifeline with no prospect of medium-term economic recovery, and at best maintain a precarious status quo. Under Maduro, the Venezuelan economy has shrunk by 75 percent and poverty has increased by 82 percent. Just under 8 million Venezuelans have emigrated. This is particularly problematic for their Latin American neighbors.

At the turn of the millennium, Chávez dreamed of the so-called “Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America.” With oil selling for as much as $150 a barrel, he was swimming in petrodollars and his cronies could pack their bags. Infrastructure projects, new regional alliances and cheap oil shipments to the island nations of the Caribbean and Central America all made him a leader on a continent where the electoral pendulum was swinging to the left. From Ecuador to Bolivia to Argentina to Brazil, governments, with the help of Venezuela, saw a historic opportunity to emancipate themselves from US hegemony—and from their own traditional conservative elites at the same time.

Maduro was able to bask in this aura for a few years. But his election denial crosses a line. In Latin America, only Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Honduras have recognized his re-election. The first two are outright socialist dictatorships and the last are led by leftists who are nostalgic for the Chávez era. Economically and politically, however, all four are irrelevant.

By contrast, two leftist heavyweights in the region have turned their backs: Brazil’s Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, who Maduro embraced during an official state visit last year, and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro. They have made it clear to Maduro that recognition is contingent on his presenting the election results and submitting to an independent international audit. Maduro’s response has been to try to wriggle out of trouble with legal tricks and a pliant Supreme Court. In the past, he could count on the indulgence of his neighbors, but now they are giving him the cold shoulder. On August 16, the Organization of American States almost unanimously backed the Colombian-Brazilian demands. The aim is to make it crystal clear to Maduro that recognition is off the table and thus steer him toward the negotiating table.

A threat to the entire region

But what explains this change of heart from Lula and Petro? First, it is a question of image. Although they certainly consider themselves left-wing, they are also democrats. Lula even risks causing a rift within his own Workers’ Party, which rushed to congratulate Maduro on his election victory.

But the reason of state also plays a role. Venezuela threatens to destabilize the entire region. The opposition has cornered Maduro, and he is becoming increasingly unpredictable. A few months ago, he threatened to invade neighboring Guyana in an old border dispute, clearly gambling that it would win him a few votes. Another fear is that allies like Iran will export their terror tactics to South America. This is not unfounded, as the Iranian-sponsored attack on the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in July 1994 shows.

The third problem is migration. Surveys show that another five million Venezuelans plan to emigrate if Maduro remains in power. Past experience shows that most would stay in Latin America. That would burden the already fragile labor markets and educational and health care institutions of the host countries. It is also a security problem. Mixed in with these migrant flows are Venezuelan criminal gangs, such as Aragua trailwho make their way into the local criminal market, for example for prostitution, extortion, arms and human trafficking.

Chinese and Russian influence have gained ground in Latin America, but the main lines still converge in Washington.

The US shares these concerns. But this time, it is content to remain in the background. It has learned its lesson from previous attempts at meddling, such as its support for opposition presidential candidate Juan Guaidó in 2019. Past crude attempts at solo action by the US have only served to feed Maduro’s victim narrative in the face of attempted imperial coups.

However, unlike 2019, there appears to be loose strategic coordination between Latin America, the US and the EU in an attempt to increase international pressure on Maduro. At the same time, the opposition is calling for peaceful demonstrations and signaling a willingness to engage in dialogue with Maduro.

Chinese and Russian influence have gained ground in Latin America. Yet the main lines still converge in Washington. The United States is the driving force behind sanctions and has offered bounties to Venezuelan political leaders for drug trafficking and human rights violations. The price of Maduro’s clinging to power has never been higher. That could cause some of his comrades to lose sleep.