🔒 Matisson – Shivambu’s defection: strategic break or survival tactic?

Following the EFF’s dramatic demise in the 2024 election, Floyd Shivambu’s move to Jacob Zuma’s MKP has sparked intense speculation. Many believe it is a strategic move, coordinated with Julius Malema, to eventually unite the two parties. However, deeper tensions between Shivambu and Malema, coupled with the MKP’s growing wealth and need for capable leadership, suggest this alliance could be more about survival and ambition than a simple ploy.

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By John Matisonn

Conspiracy theorists have been working overtime since EFF number two Floyd Shivambu defected to ex-president Jacob Zuma’s Mkhonto weSizwe party after the MKP overtook the EFF to become the third largest party in South Africa and the official opposition party in parliament. ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

Much of this speculation has been that his split with the EFF was fake, that EFF leader and strongman Julius Malema was involved and that it was an elaborate ploy to bring the two parties closer together.

That theory doesn’t take into account the human element. The truth is much more prosaic.

Four background facts are crucial to understanding developments within the two main opposition parties.

• The decades-long bromance between Shivambu and Malema came under unprecedented pressure in the months leading up to election day and the ensuing intra-party negotiations. Shivambu had hoped for a sub-cabinet post, as deputy finance minister. While Shivambu may have been the only one who thought it was a viable option, it was Malema within the EFF who blocked it. Shivambu’s fearless ambition was notably Malema’s biggest obstacle – Malema has become increasingly irascible with his officials, ready to quash any perceived threat to his leadership.
• The EFF suffered its biggest loss in the elections in KwaZulu-Natal, the province that Shivambu was tasked with restructuring, where its percentage fell from 9.7% to 2.56%. Shivambu was the clear, but unjustified, scapegoat for this.
• Money. Suddenly the MKP is the rich party, with the resources to grow, while the EFF, already labeled a loser, will struggle to match that. Speculation about where the MKP’s funds are coming from ranges from Russia, whose President Vladimir Putin has a strong relationship with Zuma as business deals with Russian oligarchs increase, to a decline in construction mafias in KwaZulu-Natal. The party has not disclosed its sources of funding.
• The MKP has a hole for Shivambu’s particular talents. In the EFF, Shivambu was the chief ideologue, responsible for writing most of the party’s manifestos, and also its most effective organiser. The MKP rose so quickly that it has neither. Zuma can do neither – his talents do not extend to writing policy, and his age, health and the regional base of KwaZulu-Natal limit his continued contribution to the arduous task of organising.

The May 29 general election was a turning point for the EFF. For the first time since its founding in 2013, the EFF’s sharp upward trend was definitively reversed, taking it from 10.79% in 2019 to just 9.52% in 2024, below the psychologically important 10%.

Crucially, the strong emergence of a new rival with a similar agenda has seen him gain a massive 14.56% lead in just six months.

The benefits to MKP of acquiring Shivambu are clear. MKP is strong in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, while Shivambu has built strong EFF support in Limpopo, Northwest and Gauteng. Uniting the two would transform two regional parties into a national one. But for that to happen, there is likely to be a lot more pain first.

The move had a colorful atmosphere.

Shivambu and Zuma have an extremely charged history. Shivambu took the unprecedented step of publicly insulting Zuma when Zuma was president and Shivambu was a member of the ANC’s Youth League. The incident was over Pretoria’s support for intervention in Libya. Zuma reacted angrily.

Shivambu followed this up by regularly insulting the president in the National Assembly, when he and Malema systematically disrupted Zuma’s speeches with endless points of order, amid shouted demands that Zuma “pay back the money” he had cost taxpayers.

What is the glue that holds this opportunistic alliance together?

For Zuma, the advantages listed above are clear. Shivambu can put together a more coherent manifesto with matching ideological trappings. And with the right resources, he can organise extensively beyond MKP’s ethnic Zulu base to build a national party.

For Shivambu, it is a chance to emerge from under Malema’s increasingly abrasive personality. Of course, being under Zuma could pose similar problems, but don’t underestimate the key differences: neither is a threat to the other’s strengths. Shivambu could not dislodge Zuma’s KZN base, but he will have the space to build his own.

Secondly, Zuma is 82. He may not be on his deathbed, as he claimed when he asked for early release, but he will not be there forever either. He needs an experienced politician and parliamentarian in his leadership. Shivambu may clash with the ex-president’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, apparently the most influential party member in the National Assembly, but both have an interest in staying in different jobs.

What does this mean for the EFF?

The general vulnerability of the Red Berets has been underlined by Malema’s erratic performances since Shivambu’s move became known. During their unusual joint press conference to announce the split, Malema admitted it clearly hurt him, while an uncomfortable Shivambu asked them not to smear each other publicly. Both have many secrets to keep about each other.

But within days, Malema was on the warpath. He has admitted he expects more desertions to follow, some from Shivambu’s loyalists in the party establishment. He announced he was taking over all functions of Shivambu’s office as deputy chairman and disbanding the key Governance Task Unit (GTU), which was responsible for deploying party members to parliament and other paid positions.

He looked clearly concerned and said that the EFF was “under attack”, an apparent reference to Shivambu’s departure. He also demanded that others who were planning to leave “leave now” and not wait until the party conference in December, when leadership positions would be elected.

It weakened Malema. He clearly believes that some will stay in the party as a fifth column. If he tries to publicly pressure them to leave, he has no control over his party. Do others feel the same as Shivambu – irritated by Malema’s bossiness and ready to follow the money out the door?

It sure seems like it.

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